It’s been 18 years since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played in their lone Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, but thanks to a senior citizen who has migrated to Florida, they are back in the big game.
Heading into the 2020 season Tampa Bay was the franchise with the worst record in NFL history and aside from that brief period of success in the Tony Dungy/Jon Gruden era, there was not a lot to cheer for.
That’s not the case this year, Tom Brady CHOSE to come here after leaving New England after 20 years.
He’s done it all before and wants to do it again… with the Bucs!
It won’t be a cakewalk like last time, demolishing an already imploding Oakland Raiders team, but why not Tampa?
Best Bet
This boils down to three very simple words: Home Field Advantage.
No team has ever hosted a Super Bowl and played in it at the same time and this year, home cooking is more important than ever.
Especially when you are taking on Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the cavalcade of offensive talent on Kansas City’s roster.
We all know why Tampa is the underdog in this game, even with the GOAT running the show.
The good news though, is that means it’s the perfect opportunity for a value bet on the Buccaneers.
Nobody believes in the Bucs?
No problem, the team knows the stadium, the setup and Brady can transfer his big game experience to the rest of this young team.
It’s not like Tampa is lacking for talent themselves either, on top of Brady, there’s a pair of elite receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski who has been saved for this specific game, oh and the best young linebacker on the game in Devin White who is ready to run sideline to sideline and slow down the Chiefs.
After winning in Lambeau a fortnight ago, it’s time to bring the Lombardi Trophy to our home.
Back Tampa Bay to Win @ $2.45
First Touchdown Scorer
Ok it is a bit of a leap to jump from praising the passing game to backing a running back but the former Jaguars battering ram has taken over the lead back role over the last month and a half.
Since assuming the starting role against Atlanta in Week 15, Fournette has scored a touchdown in five of the six games and has found the end zone in all three of Tampa’s playoff games.
Not to mention with the litany of weapons on offer when Tampa spreads its receivers out, it makes Fournette an even tougher prospect to tackle.
Picture him building up a head of steam and crashing into a Chiefs defensive back two yards out from the end zone, you’re not stopping him from there.
Back Leonard Fournette First TD Scorer @ $10.00
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
To win this game, Tampa Bay is going to have to score at least 30 points, so that means there will be more than a few touchdown options.
Assuming Fournette manages to find the end zone, possibly on the first possession, Tampa is still going to have to score at least another three, so here are three more options, all of varying value.
Mike Evans has contributed in every Buccaneers playoff game, even in the win over the Saints where his lone catch was for a touchdown.
With Godwin battling a bad case of the drops this postseason, Evans is the first play in this market.
Up next is Rob Gronkowski, the tight end who has played in four Super Bowls in his career to date.
All up he has tallied 23 receptions for 296 yards and three touchdowns, although it should be mentioned his first Super Bowl in the 2011 season was played on a busted ankle.
He has been quiet this postseason with two catches for 43 yards but you just know Bruce Arians is planning something special for the big guy with the permanent golden retriever expression.
Finally, it’s second year receiver Scotty Miller, who is the fourth choice receiver on a normal day but could step into a larger role with Antonio Brown likely limited.
We know Brady has confidence in him, the throw in the first half of the NFC Championship Game with time running out said it all.
I’ll back him to get open here.
Back Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer @ $2.15
Back Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD Scorer @ $3.25
Back Scotty Miller Anytime TD Scorer @ $4.80
Player Performance
There’s a small temptation to rename this matchup as Super Bowl LV: Tom Brady vs Patrick Mahomes considering the amount of quarterback related storylines we’re reading this week.
So let’s delve into some Tom Brady markets since he needs to play an almost perfect game to match Mahomes and company.
Let’s look at his last four Super Bowls dating back to the win over Seattle six years ago.
In those games, Brady has averaged over 390 passing yards per game, including the top two yardage totals in Super Bowl history, and has 10 touchdowns in those four games.
It’s not like the Chiefs defence is the second coming of the 1985 Bears and if the Buccaneers line can give Brady time to throw, he can shred their secondary.
When the Buccaneers faced Kansas City in Week 12, he threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns.
On top of that he will have a bit of extra motivation to put a lid on the Mahomes hype train, since the Chiefs quarterback could very well threaten Brady’s status as the greatest NFL player of all time.
Back Tom Brady 3+ TD Passes @ $2.35
Back Tom Brady 350+ Passing Yards @ $3.45
SGM: Brady 350+ Passing Yards & 3+ TD Passes @ $4.96
Super Bowl MVP
Let’s keep this simple, if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl, chances are the MVP will be Tom Brady.
The guy has been front and centre on just about every website in the build up to the big game, and if he comes close to living up to the billing, he will get the votes to win his fifth Super Bowl MVP award.
However, in the interests of keeping it interesting, let’s play out a slightly different scenario.
Let’s say Tampa Bay wins the game on the back of its defence forcing the Chiefs into a handful of mistakes and Brady only has to throw for 180 yards and hand it off to his running backs.
Tampa’s linebacker Devin White has been a playmaker in the last two games since returning from injury, intercepting Drew Brees and recovering a fumble against the Saints and another one against the Packers.
He tallied 12 tackles in the Week 12 game and if he can get involved early by forcing a few turnovers, he could join the likes of Malcolm Smith, Ray Lewis, Dexter Jackson or Von Miller for recent defensive players to be named MVP.
Back Tom Brady for Super Bowl MVP @ $3.00
Back Devin White for Super Bowl MVP @ $81.00