Euro 2020 Tournament Preview

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After 12 months and quite a few venue changes, Euro 2020 will go ahead in 2021.

France has just taken over sole favouritism in our outright winner market with England and Belgium on the next two lines of betting, however it is shaping up as one of the most open tournaments in recent memory.

The defending champions Portugal have received no favours from the draw, landing in the group of death with current world champions France and 2014 World Cup winners Germany.

We have scoured the markets to find the best Euro 2020 value bets below so read on and see what they are!

GROUP A

We all had a lot of fun with Italy when they missed the 2018 World Cup but you would expect the Azzuri to be back with a vengeance in this tournament.

They left nothing to chance in qualifying, winning all 10 matches while scoring 37 goals and conceding just four.

It would be a major shock to see them finish anywhere other than on top of this group and the Group A odds ($1.57) reflect that.

Assuming they take care of business (and they should), you can get a fairly decent price on the Italians to win all of their group matches at $3.75 however there could be more value backing them in each individual match.

Assuming they can take care of business, their first real test could come in the Quarter Finals where the draw would pit them against Belgium, a side that they would certainly fancy their chances against.

The race to finish behind Italy however is wide open and all three of the other teams in the group would feel like they could and should be in contention for the second automatic spot in the knockout stage.

Switzerland’s side looks like the second best team on paper and certainly look like they are capable of defeating both Turkey and Wales to secure the runner up spot.

Back Italy to Reach the Semi Final @ $2.88

Back Italy/Switzerland 1-2 Straight Forecast @ $4.00

GROUP B

This group should be dominated by a Belgian team plenty expect to go all the way.

Currently at $7.00 to win the whole tournament, their $1.73 price to win the group seems awfully generous and you can get $4 for them to win all three of their Group B matches.

Even if they have nothing to play for in their final match, they should be able to handle Finland with a rotated squad.

As for the rest of the group, the bookies really seem to rate Denmark, whose $3.75 price to win Group B seems far too short.

This is easily the best group to be in when it comes to Round of 16 opponents for the runner up with the Group A runner up the likely opponent.

Unless Italy botches things, the Group B runner up (Denmark) will be favoured against any of the other three teams to come out of that pool and should be a good chance to reach the Quarter Finals.

As for the rest of the group, a draw between Russia and Finland when they face off could cost both of them a spot in the knockout phase of Euro 2020 with three points the likely minimum.

Back Belgium to Win All Its Group Games @ $4.00

Back Denmark to Reach the Quarter Finals @ $2.25

GROUP C

Group C certainly looks like another one of those ones where the real intrigue will be in the race for second spot.

Like Italy, the Dutch responded to their shock absence from the 2018 World Cup by making sure they took care of business in qualification for this tournament.

Admittedly they had to work a bit harder than the Italians having been drawn in the same group as Germany but they cruised to the finish line, advancing from second spot, six points clear of Northern Ireland.

Then came a real lucky break with a fairly soft group that they are $1.40 favourites to win.

At the other end of the scale, Northern Macedonia are probably just happy to be at the Euros and a point would be more than enough for them.

That doesn’t seem likely with the loser of Ukraine and Austria’s race to be runner up needing to put a big score on their rivals to give themselves the best opportunity to advance in third place.

It would be a shock if this group did not produce three teams in the knockout stage but from there it is anyone’s guess.

The Dutch could easily make the Semi Finals or lose in the Round of 16 depending on which third placed team they draw (Groups D, E or F).

I don’t like a lot of the markets in this group because it is just too predictable however two options do stand out.

Back Netherlands to Win All Its Group Games @ $2.88

Back North Macedonia to Lose All Its Group Games @ $2.88

GROUP D

This foursome is a real case of the haves and have nots, two sides are more than capable of winning the whole tournament and two are probably going to be facing a quick exit.

As is the case with just about every English side, Gareth Southgate’s team has been hyped up beyond belief and are the second favourites for overall honours at $6.00.

While I will concede they have a very strong team on paper, I just cannot bring myself to buy into it just yet, something still seems off with them.

Not to mention they are one or two injuries away from being an average side.

In a straight up tipping contest, I would select them to win Group D, however from a punting perspective, the odds on Croatia are just too good to ignore here.

It is far closer to a 50-50 call than the market would suggest and Croatia to win the group is my main “the price is too good to ignore” bet of the tournament.

Should Croatia hold England to a draw or even win when they face off, it puts them in the box seat and I am happy to take that on.

Looking at the way the knockout stages are shaping up, there is a case to be made that finishing second and playing the Group E runner is a better outcome than winning the group and dealing with the Group F runner up which will be one of France, Portugal or Germany.

With that in mind, you can also find two more bets as a bit of insurance in the event of England winning the group or finishing in second place.

Back Croatia to Win Group D @ $4.33

Back Croatia to Reach the Quarter Final @ $2.50

Back England to Be Eliminated in the Round of 16 @ $2.38

Then there is just one fun market that is too good to pass up having a punt on, regardless of what stage of the tournament it happens at.

Back England to Be Eliminated on Penalties @ $5.00

GROUP E

This is another group where anything other than the favourite securing a clean sweep of fixtures would be a huge surprise.

Spain might not be the all-conquering outfit that won the 2008 and 2012 Euro tournaments, but they are still more than capable of dealing with the other three sides in this pool.

Luis Enrique has plenty of talent all over this side and Alvaro Morata could be in contention for Golden Boot honours, especially if they make a deep run.

Winning the Group would likely put them in the tougher half of the knockout phase, with England, Portugal, the Netherlands and Germany.

Even if the tournament does play out as I expect it to, I really like this team and would expect them to be in the mix in the final week.

Back Spain to Win 9 Points in the Group @ $2.75

Back Spain/Poland 1-2 Straight Forecast @ $2.88

Back Spain to Reach the Semi Final @ $2.63

Back Spain to Reach the Final @ $4.50

GROUP F

We’ve saved the best group until last (thanks to previewing the tournament alphabetically) and it is well worth the weight.

Three European heavyweights, Germany, Portugal and defending world champions France will face off and there is a real case to be made for each team to not only top the group but take out the entire tournament.

Unfortunately for Joachim Low, the old adage of “22 players run around a park and at the end of the day, the Germans win” won’t apply here, they could be in for a very disappointing tournament.

I would still expect them to beat up on Hungary enough to advance as one of the best third place teams but I don’t expect a deep run from the 2014 World Cup Champions.

As for the 2018 World Cup Champions, France are my pick to go all the way.

It might not be the sexiest selection, taking the outright favourite but their squad is just ridiculous on paper and it would take a mutiny of 2010 proportions for this side to not succeed.

By process of elimination that puts the defending European champions Portugal in position to finish as the group’s runner up.

As we saw five years ago, they have the guile to win games ugly and get under the skin of whoever they play.

We might not see too many goals in their matches but they certainly have the ability to get by, plus it would be absolutely phenomenal if a Bruno Fernandes penalty eliminated England in the Round of 16.

Back France/Portugal 1-2 Straight Forecast @ $5.50

Back Germany to be Eliminated in the Round of 16 @ $2.88

Back France to Win Euro 2020 @ $5.50

Player of the Tournament

This is one of those markets that really does come down to how much faith you have in one particular team.

To have any chance of winning this, the recipient will have to play a key role on a team expected to make a deep run and this field is littered with players that are primed for a big month.

If you like England to make a run then you have to back a player like Harry Kane, while Bruno Fernandes is a great play for Portugal.

It’s no surprise to see Kevin De Bruyne and Kylian Mbappe favoured in this market with both of their teams among the overall Euro 2020 favourites.

As I have picked France to win outright, I’ll keep a distinctly French flavour to my main choice in this market and back a player who has enjoyed arguably the best season of his career.

Midfielder Ngolo Kante is one of the most likeable players in world football and has begun to earn the recognition he so richly deserves, most recently claiming player of the match in the Champions League Final.

While Mbappe might get a lot of the love online, Kante is almost as popular and arguably more important, anchoring a French midfield and allowing his more attack minded teammates to do what they do best.

Back Ngolo Kante to Win Player of the Tournament @ $26

Euro 2020 Top Goalscorer

Most golden boot winners tend to do the bulk of their work in the group stages, beating up on overmatched teams before chipping in another one or two in the knockout stages when things become much tighter.

For that reason, I’m eliminating anyone from Groups D and F and limiting my choices to a Spanish, Belgian, Dutch or Italian player since they are all likely to pile on the goals in the opening three matches.

Two names jump out above all else with Alvaro Morata and Ciro Immobile both excellent value options.

Immobile is coming off another strong season with Lazio scoring 25 goals in 41 appearances while Morata managed 20 goals on loan for Juventus this past season.

I also like Lukaku to be in the mix, just not at his current $7.50 quote.

Back Ciro Immobile to be the Top Goalscorer @ $21

Back Alvaro Morata to be the Top Goalscorer @ $21

Tournament Straight Forecast

Time for the final play, I’ve done the bracket and come up with the overall Euro 2020 (in 2021) prediction.

As mentioned earlier, France should add another trophy to their cabinet and I will back them to beat Spain in the Euro 2020 Final.

The French get by Wales in the Round of 16 before topping Croatia in a repeat of the 2018 World Cup Final and defeating Italy in the semis to reach the decider at Wembley.

On the other side of the draw, Spain should have no problems getting by Austria, but a Quarter Final against Portugal and a Semi Final against the Dutch will take too much out of them and leave them unable to match the rampant French forwards when it matters most.

Back France to beat Spain @ $41.00