Almost seven months after the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in their home ground of SoFi Stadium, a new NFL season will get underway this Friday morning.
Since a ball was thrown in anger, we have seen one of the more eventful offseasons in recent memory with a number of players traded and plenty of big money deals handed out.
With 272 regular season games on the schedule, plus another 13 playoff contests culminating in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale Arizona.
Before it gets underway, we’re going through all 32 teams and finding the best bets for the upcoming NFL season below!
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
LAST SEASON: 12-5 H2H | 13-4 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round v San Francisco)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.30 | Win Division – $2.40 | Win Conference – $10.50 | Win Super Bowl – $21 || Win Total: 10.5
Talent wise, Dallas has the pieces to make a Super Bowl run in 2022, but the questions surrounding the overall makeup of the team might just prove to be a little bit too much for them to overcome.
A couple of preseason injuries on the offensive line could make life tough for Dak Prescott when he drops back to throw, while there’s a real chance Ezekiel Elliott might be done as an elite running back.
Since his breakout rookie campaign in 2016, his yards per game has been in steady decline while his total yards from scrimmage has also declined in each of the last three years.
That puts it all on the shoulders of Prescott who is more than capable of carrying this team to at least a playoff berth, but they look a step or two below the NFC’s elite sides.
In terms of the division title, it’s a two horse race with the Cowboys and Eagles by the looks of things and Dallas might get caught out by their slightly tougher schedule this year and I give the Eagles a slight edge.
One player who is in the ascendency is receiver CeeDee Lamb and with a firm grip on the “favourite target” title, he should go off in plenty of games.
Combine that with the need to throw in a few games and the yardage totals for both Prescott and Lamb look like the Cowboys best bets on offence.
As for the defence, Micah Parsons is not just the best player on Dallas’ defence, but potentially one of the best defenders in the league and he could break out this year as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Back Dak Prescott Over 4350.5 Passing Yards @ $2.00
Back CeeDee Lamb Over 1225.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87
New York Giants
LAST SEASON: 4-13 H2H | 6-11 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.75 | Win Division – $9.00 | Win Conference – $51 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 6.5
It’s fair to say that the Giants have not succeeded when it comes to hiring coaches since the departure of Tom Coughlin in 2015.
But this year they went after one of, if not the best names on the market with former Buffalo and New England assistant Brian Daboll who has been tasked with turning this roster around and guiding New York to its first playoff win in over a decade.
It’s tough to see it coming this year however, despite an easier division as Daboll appears set to use this season as one for evaluation and re-tooling.
However in the interests of finding a bet for every team, there is value to be had on Saquon Barkley overcoming a couple of years of injury and becoming the player the Giants were hoping for when they drafted him out of Penn State.
The 2018 rookie of the year was still finding his footing after a devastating knee injury last season but with a full offseason to prepare, he might just be back to his old self.
If he can play most games and get somewhere in the vicinity of 1500 all purpose yards and 12 touchdowns, his name will be in the mix.
Back Saquon Barkley to Win Comeback Player of the Year @ $15.00
Philadelphia Eagles
LAST SEASON: 8-9 H2H | 9-8 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round @ Tampa Bay)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.60 | Win Division – $2.40 | Win Conference – $16 | Win Super Bowl – $29 || Win Total: 9.5
Philadelphia has the makings of a boom or bust team this year.
After last year’s playoff exit, they went out and strengthened both sides of the ball and now look like a side that could have closed the gap on Dallas.
Jalen Hurts still has some major questions over his consistency but with the improvement he has shown since taking over the starting job full time, he can make a push for a massive contract next season.
Assuming he can get on the same page with AJ Brown early, Philadelphia might be one of those sides that gets off to a fast start and does not look back.
10 wins should be enough to claim the division and that’s the season I’m backing them to have.
Back Philadelphia to Win the NFC East @ $2.40
Back Philadelphia Over 9.5 Wins @ $1.75
Washington Commanders
LAST SEASON: 7-10 H2H | 6-11 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.75 | Win Division – $6.00 | Win Conference – $34 | Win Super Bowl – $51 || Win Total: 7.5
It’s not so much that Washington is a bad team, but there just does not appear to be a whole lot to like about them this coming season.
Ron Rivera is a good coach in a bad situation but while those above him continue to reinforce the ceiling on this side, they won’t be going anywhere.
Picking up Carson Wentz does not significantly improve their chances of success, in fact it might reduce them if he plays the way he did at times for Indianapolis last year.
Back Washington Under 7.5 Wins @ $1.95
NFC North
Chicago Bears
LAST SEASON: 6-11 H2H | 5-12 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $4.00 | Win Division – $15 | Win Conference – $51 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 6.5
Justin Fields may still be a really good quarterback, but heading into his first full season as a starter, you have to wonder if the Bears are interested in giving him any help.
2021 was designated as a bonus year where his main job was to learn by doing after being thrown into the starting lineup in Week 3.
Now the team is his, but the group of players who will be tasked with catching his passes are uninspiring to say the least.
Most players you will have to put into a search engine to find out if they are in fact NFL players with the need for a lot of pretzel twisting logic to think they are capable of making an impact.
It’s the Justin Fields show and any tangible improvement on their 2021 record will be seen as a win for them, alongside getting their second year signal caller through the season in one piece.
At most they’ll win eight games and still be in the playoff race by Christmas, but with a premium on the over for their win total, that’s the only option that is even close to appealing.
Back Chicago Over 6.5 Wins @ $2.20
Detroit Lions
LAST SEASON: 3-13-1 H2H | 10-7 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $5.25 | Win Division – $11 | Win Conference – $67 | Win Super Bowl – $126 || Win Total: 6.5
Let’s not buy into the Hard Knocks hype around the Detroit Lions.
They are going to be a fun team to watch some weeks, others they will struggle to compete.
One player who will be destined for a breakout is running back D’Andre Swift who is entering his third year in the league.
This is his year to establish himself as the true lead back for Dan Campbell and if he stays healthy, he will have no trouble reaching either of the listed totals.
D’Andre Swift Over 850.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87
D’Andre Swift Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ $1.87
Green Bay Packers
LAST SEASON: 13-4 H2H | 12-5 ATS (NFC 1st Seed – Lost Divisional Round v San Francisco)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.25 | Win Division – $1.50 | Win Conference – $6.20 | Win Super Bowl – $11 || Win Total: 11.5
Time for the first team that is a legitimate chance of making the Super Bowl.
Green Bay just has not been able to get it done in the playoffs over the last decade but the regular season has never been an issue for them.
However with the offence seemingly in a state of transition, the Packers might not be the juggernaut we are used to early in the season.
Aaron Rodgers had a… unique offseason to say the least, and you do wonder if he will trust his rookie pass catchers to replace the departed DeVante Adams.
The most likely player to catch on early is Romeo Doubs who will without a doubt be in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In a wide open field, Doubs going over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns could have him standing out above all others, especially if the Packers win another division crown.
But he won’t be able to do it all on his own, running back Aaron Jones appears likely to shoulder a heavy load in conjunction with AJ Dillon with both players set to see plenty of work in goal line settings.
With the potential shift in focus, we could see a slight backwards step (statistically) from Aaron Rodgers and that is why I’m going to steer clear of him in the player markets.
Similarly, the Packers will be in the mix for the playoffs and division but their odds are too short for those and it’s tough to have the confidence in this team getting the job done in January.
Back Romeo Doubs to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year @ $10.50
Back Aaron Jones Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ $1.87
Back AJ Dillon Over 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ $1.75
Minnesota Vikings
LAST SEASON: 8-9 H2H | 8-9 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.00 | Win Division – $3.50 | Win Conference – $21 | Win Super Bowl – $41 || Win Total: 9.5
Now if anyone is going to topple the Packers in this division, it will be the Minnesota Vikings and there is a lot to like about this side from a punting perspective.
Kevin O’Connell has taken over as the head coach from Mike Zimmer, bringing a fresh approach to an offence that has a real chance at being the best in the league if everything clicks.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for O’Connell will be encouraging Kirk Cousins to trust his offensive weapons and cut down on the mistakes.
Receiver Justin Jefferson has spoken of his desire to be viewed as the best player at his position by the end of the year and to do that, he will need to lead the league in one category.
As the favourite in the yardage market, Jefferson is still a good option as he should have plenty of opportunities to go off in games, however his touchdowns may suffer with the likes of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and even Irv Smith all solid red zone options.
From a team perspective Minnesota is definitely closer to Green Bay than the market would be suggesting and it’s worth backing them to make the playoffs and win the division as well.
Back Justin Jefferson Over 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $1.87
Back Justin Jefferson Most Receiving Yards @ $7.00
Minnesota to Make the Playoffs @ $2.00
Minnesota to Win the NFC North @ $3.50
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
LAST SEASON: 11-6 H2H | 10-7 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round @ LA Rams)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.75 | Win Division – $4.50 | Win Conference – $14 | Win Super Bowl – $29 || Win Total: 8.5
Arizona has been the NFL’s September and October champion over the last few seasons, starting strong before a late season fade out.
Last season they were at least able to stumble into the playoffs but couldn’t offer a whole lot in their loss to the Rams.
Now that Kyler Murray has his new deal, the expectations on him have to go up for the 2022 season, but in a tough division he may not be able to deliver the Cardinals what they have paid him for.
Arizona looks set to take a bit of a step back and even two fewer wins might put them on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
One player who should be able to deliver week in week out however is running back James Conner who is a strong goalline option and should be in the mix for plenty of touchdowns.
Back Arizona to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.00
Back James Conner Over 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ $1.87
LA Rams
LAST SEASON: 12-5 H2H | 9-8 ATS (Won Super Bowl LVI v Cincinnati)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.35 | Win Division – $2.25 | Win Conference – $5.20 | Win Super Bowl – $11 || Win Total: 10.5
The reigning Super Bowl champion Rams will enter the season feeling very confident about their prospects of defending their title and looking at their roster, it’s tough to argue with that sentiment.
Most of their key contributors from their run in 2021 have returned and most of the concerns you have about this team are superficial at best.
Cooper Kupp is coming off a historic season of almost 2000 yards, 16 touchdowns and a Super Bowl MVP award.
Even a 10% drop off in production from him would still have him in the mix for the NFL’s receiving title which will probably be a two horse race with him and Justin Jefferson.
The supporting cast should be able to carry Matthew Stafford if the preseason elbow concerns are something that will linger into the season and that doesn’t even start on the defence.
Aaron Donald is still Aaron Donald and it is no surprise to see him in the mix for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Back LA Rams to Win the NFC West @ $2.25
Back Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards @ $9.00
Back Aaron Donald to Win Defensive Player of the Year @ $7.50
San Francisco 49ers
LAST SEASON: 10-7 H2H | 10-7 ATS (Lost NFC Championship @ LA Rams)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.45 | Win Division – $2.60 | Win Conference – $6.75 | Win Super Bowl – $17 || Win Total: 9.5
Optimism is high in the Bay Area but San Francisco is a team that punters can find plenty of value taking on.
Seen as the best challenger for the Rams for the division, coach Kyle Shanahan has opted to bench his quarterback from the last few seasons Jimmy Garoppolo for second year player Trey Lance, who is a projection at best right now.
With Lance likely to go through plenty of growing pains as the starter, it’s tough to see Shanahan’s system carrying the youngster to an adequate level and we might just see San Francisco taking a step or two back.
It might work out long term, but in 2022 the 49ers are in for some short term pain.
Back San Francisco to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.75
Seattle Seahawks
LAST SEASON: 7-10 H2H | 9-8 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $5.50 | Win Division – $17 | Win Conference – $67 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 5.5
Last season was a sign that it is the end of an era in Seattle with Russell Wilson injured and now in Denver.
This could be the Pete Carroll farewell tour with the veteran coach, despite being on the other side of 70, still looking very sprightly.
The Seahawks are gearing up for a multi-season rebuild and with no tangible option at quarterback, finishing with a top five draft pick appears to be the way they are heading.
Back Under 5.5 Wins @ $2.10
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
LAST SEASON: 7-10 H2H | 6-11 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $7.50 | Win Division – $31 | Win Conference – $67 | Win Super Bowl – $126 || Win Total: 4.5
Atlanta is not being given much of a chance with Matt Ryan now in Indianapolis and coach Arthur Smith dealing with a roster whose average player is probably not at an NFL standard.
However as we are continually reminded, it’s a team sport and there is enough going for the Falcons to think that they might be better than the projected 4.5 wins total.
While Marcus Mariota is not a Super Bowl winning quarterback, he is a serviceable option and they have rookie Desmond Ridder who could be thrown into the fire midseason.
Finding five winnable games on their schedule is not that tough when you go through it, playing Carolina twice, the Cleveland Browns early, San Francisco, Washington, Pittsburgh and Arizona plus a Tampa side in Week 18 that may be resting starters for the playoffs.
Then they have Kyle Pitts who is on the way to becoming one of the more dynamic offensive weapons in the league and his touchdowns number is very low at 4.5.
Any quarterback’s best friend is a reliable tight end and Pitts is going to be among the leaders at his position just because of a sheer volume of opportunities.
Back Over 4.5 Wins @ $1.80
Back Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $1.87
Carolina Panthers
LAST SEASON: 5-12 H2H | 5-12 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $5.50 | Win Division – $11 | Win Conference – $51 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 6.5
If you are looking for optimism in Carolina, keep digging.
Not only is coach Matt Rhule in the mix to be the first coach fired, but this is a roster in dire need of a massive overhaul.
Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold’s stock is as low as it has been since they entered the league in 2018.
Running back Christian McCaffrey cannot stay healthy, which is a shame because when he is on the field he is a game changer.
The rest of the roster does not have any sort of impact player and the Panthers look quite likely to be picking first overall next April.
Back Carolina to Have the Worst Regular Season Record @ $13.00
New Orleans Saints
LAST SEASON: 9-8 H2H | 9-8 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.30 | Win Division – $4.50 | Win Conference – $21 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 8.5
When you examine the Saints chances in 2022, it’s worth remembering that they were so close to being a playoff team despite losing their starting quarterback to an ACL injury forcing three other guys into action, missing their star receiver all season and having their main offensive weapon limited with injury.
Top to bottom this is a competitive roster that should be in most games as long as they can keep Jameis Winston’s turnovers under control.
His supporting cast, headlined by Alvin Kamara and the allegedly healthy Michael Thomas who is only two years removed from a record 149 catch season.
Combine that with a defence that is better than it gets credit for and New Orleans is going to be in the wild card mix.
Back New Orleans to Make the Playoffs @ $2.30
Back Over 8.5 Wins @ $2.00
Back Michael Thomas Over 800.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.87
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LAST SEASON: 13-4 H2H | 9-8 ATS (Lost Divisional Round v LA Rams)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.15 | Win Division – $1.30 | Win Conference – $4.10 | Win Super Bowl – $8 || Win Total: 11.5
There really isn’t much we can say about Tampa in the playoff race looking at their odds.
Seen as near certainties to win the NFC South, their season will begin in the third weekend of January when the games become win or go home.
With Tom Brady, the Bucs are going to be in the Super Bowl mix regardless of how their regular season goes, but pairing the seven time champion with this supporting cast, and Tampa might be the NFC’s best hope.
That 11.5 win total should be cleared and they should win the race for the top seed heading into the postseason.
Brady’s offseason has been quite bizarre in its own right with retirements, unretirements, training camp absences and a whole lot more, but the guy can still sling it and he is a legitimate MVP candidate while also a contender to lead the league in several key categories.
Back Tampa Bay to Win the NFC #1 Seed @ $4.40
Back Tom Brady Most Passing Touchdowns @ $7.50
Back Tom Brady to Win MVP @ $10.00
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
LAST SEASON: 11-6 H2H | 10-7 ATS (Lost Divisional Round @ Kansas City)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.20 | Win Division – $1.40 | Win Conference – $4.50 | Win Super Bowl – $7.50 || Win Total: 11.5
It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Bills this season with the team in its best position to win the franchise’s first Lombardi trophy since the Jim Kelly days.
Josh Allen is now a bona fide superstar at quarterback and is the MVP favourite as the Bills chase the best seed possible.
They are head and shoulders above the rest of the division and should have that wrapped up before Christmas with the holiday period set to be all about securing that first round bye.
Working in their favour is the fact they should win at least five games in the division and when they take on teams outside of the AFC East, they will be favoured.
Back Buffalo Over 11.5 Wins @ $1.70
Back Josh Allen to Win MVP @ $7.50
Miami Dolphins
LAST SEASON: 9-8 H2H | 10-7 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.40 | Win Division – $5.00 | Win Conference – $17 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 8.5
It’s all about the quarterback in Miami and Tua Tagovailoa has no excuses this season.
After an up and down start to his career, he has been given all sorts of weapons to reach the peak of his powers and your opinion on Miami’s prospects this year depends on how you feel he will go.
He appears to be a good enough quarterback to have Miami in the mix most weeks but not quite good enough to make them a perennial playoff team.
But it’s tough to ignore the fact that offence last year appeared to run a lot better when it was Jacoby Brissett at the helm and new coach Mike McDaniel isn’t tied to him the way Brian Flores was.
Despite the accumulation of talent on the rest of the roster, this team’s success will be dependent on their signal caller and I’m still not sold on him.
Back Miami Under 8.5 Wins @ $2.10
New England Patriots
LAST SEASON: 10-7 H2H | 10-7 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round @ Buffalo)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.50 | Win Division – $6.50 | Win Conference – $17 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 8.5
After a return to the playoffs in 2021, New England appears primed for a minor step backwards this season, or at least staying stagnant while the field has improved around them.
Either way it points towards an early exit for Bill Belichick who has gone for an unusual approach to his coaching staff this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Mac Jones is going to be asked to do a lot this season and the jury is very much out on whether or not he will be able to carry the offence at times.
Another ten win season seems like their ceiling and Belichick will put their floor at seven or eight wins but they have the look of a team stuck in the middle of the pack at the moment.
Despite a few departures on defence, they still have impact players including Matthew Judon who will be the main pass rushing threat.
Back Matthew Judon Over 10.25 Sacks @ $2.00
New York Jets
LAST SEASON: 4-13 H2H | 6-11 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $7.50 | Win Division – $26 | Win Conference – $201 | Win Super Bowl – $201 || Win Total: N/A
To paraphrase a quote from Premier League legend Sir Alex Ferguson, “It’s the Jets”.
With Zach Wilson battling a knee injury already, they could be in for a very long season and despite a promising rookie class, it’s tough to see the Jets doing anything other than bringing up the rear of the AFC East (barring a major injury in New England or Miami).
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
LAST SEASON: 8-9 H2H | 6-11 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.60 | Win Division – $2.30 | Win Conference – $11 | Win Super Bowl – $21 || Win Total: 9.5
It was a nightmare season last year with the Ravens decimated by injuries but that has them set up for a much more competitive campaign in 2022.
Very few teams have back to back years where most of their roster ends up on injured reserve and if Baltimore can keep most of their key starters healthy, they are a strong value option to win their division and return to the playoffs.
Add in a motivated Lamar Jackson chasing a big money deal and the Ravens could capitalise on his play.
Considering they went 8-9 despite all of their absences last year is a testament to coach John Harbaugh and he can have this team firing on all cylinders which makes them a dangerous opponent.
Back Baltimore to Win the AFC North @ $2.30
Cincinnati Bengals
LAST SEASON: 10-7 H2H | 10-7 ATS (Lost Super Bowl LVI v LA Rams)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.70 | Win Division – $2.60 | Win Conference – $12 | Win Super Bowl – $23 || Win Total: 9.5
The biggest (and possibly only) question surrounding the Bengals is how are they going to handle going from the plucky underdogs to the hunted.
Joe Burrow and company are not sneaking up on anyone this season and in the hyper competitive AFC, even a one game drop off from last year could have them on the outside looking in.
That’s not to say they are going to be a worse team than they were a year ago, but the field is going to present a much stronger challenge.
On the plus side the Bengals did address their offensive line this offseason but even so, I’m expecting a slow start that might leave them needing to do too much in December to catch up.
Back Cincinnati to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.10
Cleveland Browns
LAST SEASON: 7-10 H2H | 5-12 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $2.75 | Win Division – $4.75 | Win Conference – $17 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 8.5
Cleveland might be hoping to tread water in 2022 before making a real run for the Super Bowl in 2023.
Having traded for Deshaun Watson who will miss the first 11 games of the season through a suspension, Cleveland has pinned all of their hopes on the controversial quarterback.
Maybe by some miracle Jacoby Brissett will find a way to carry this team to a decent record in fill in duty but like the Bengals above, it’s tough to see them taking off when Watson returns from his ban.
Especially when you consider the fact it will be Watson’s first game in over 18 months having sat out the 2021 season with Houston.
Treat Cleveland like a stay away in the futures markets.
Pittsburgh Steelers
LAST SEASON: 9-7-1 H2H | 8-9 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round @ Kansas City)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $3.75 | Win Division – $11 | Win Conference – $41 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 7.5
For the first time since 2003, Pittsburgh will not have Ben Roethlisberger starting at quarterback.
Instead, all eyes will be on the rookie Kenny Pickett, the local college hero who will take over the starting job at some stage this season.
With an unlikely playoff run despite a talented roster, Pittsburgh could turn things over to Pickett around midseason and let him get a taste of NFL action with an eye on the 2023 campaign.
However that does not mean that the Steelers are a total stay away, rookie George Pickens will pull off plenty of highlight reel catches and has a chance to make an instant impact.
Back George Pickens to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year @ $9.50
AFC West
Denver Broncos
LAST SEASON: 7-10 H2H | 8-9 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.65 | Win Division – $3.75 | Win Conference – $9 | Win Super Bowl – $17 || Win Total: 9.5
Not to fault anyone for being high on Denver this season, but I’m not buying the addition of Russell Wilson as the potential difference maker for Denver.
Even the Wilson of four years ago was a very different quarterback but after years of hits and running for his life in Seattle, there is a real chance he doesn’t live up to the hype.
On his day Wilson can still do some special stuff but Denver’s offensive line is not much better than what he had with the Seahawks.
If he’s running for his life, those hits add up and Denver might not be able to count on the guy they gave up a lot to acquire.
Back Denver Under 9.5 Wins @ $2.10
Back Denver to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.20
Kansas City Chiefs
LAST SEASON: 12-5 H2H | 8-9 ATS (Lost AFC Championship v Cincinnati)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.50 | Win Division – $2.65 | Win Conference – $6.00 | Win Super Bowl – $11 || Win Total: 10.5
Reports of the Chiefs demise may have been greatly exaggerated, but it’s fair to say they are a bit closer to the pack than they have been in previous years.
Trading away Tyreek Hill puts further pressure on Patrick Mahomes but he still has his safety net in Travis Kelce and a quarterback of his skill set can elevate the play of his teammates.
At worst the Chiefs are going to be the third best team in the AFC behind the Bills and another to be determined challenger but the only concern about their competition is that it might force them into a road playoff game, something Mahomes has never had to deal with in his career.
It will all come down to the division race and until the Chiefs show that they are not the best team in the AFC West they are the side to back.
Working against them however, is the realisation that the murderers row that is the AFC West might come back to bite whoever wins it in terms of overall playoff seeding given the likelihood that teams will take games off one another.
It might only mean the difference between an 11-6 season and a 13-4 campaign but in the race to be have the AFC’s best record the margins will be that fine.
Back Mahomes to guide his team to another division title as he wracks up the passing yards.
Back Kansas City to Win the AFC West @ $2.65
Back Over 10.5 Wins @ $1.88
Back Patrick Mahomes Most Passing Yards @ $8.00
LA Chargers
LAST SEASON: 9-8 H2H | 8-9 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.60 | Win Division – $3.75 | Win Conference – $9.00 | Win Super Bowl – $15 || Win Total: 10.5
Talent is not the question for the LA Chargers, their success will be determined by what resides upstairs.
For starters they have to shake off an utterly demoralising ending to last season, missing out on the playoffs thanks to a gamble by coach Brendan Staley and he is showing no signs of changing his high-risk/high-reward approach.
If things click then the Chargers are another side that can be the top scoring team in the NFL with Justin Herbert running the show and the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler at his disposal.
On defence they have Joey Bosa who can disrupt opposing quarterbacks with the best of them and safety Derwin James just earned a massive payday.
The problem with the Chargers is the fact that the market appears to have nailed their prospects for the upcoming season and there is not a lot of value to be found outside of the total wins market.
Back Over 10.5 Wins @ $2.05
Las Vegas Raiders
LAST SEASON: 10-7 H2H | 9-8 ATS (Lost Wild Card Round v Cincinnati)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $3.00 | Win Division – $7.00 | Win Conference – $17 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 8.5
Looking at the markets for the Raiders, it’s entirely possible to surmise that the franchise is paying the price for being a basket case for most of the last 20 years.
Despite making the playoffs during one of the more tumultuous seasons any side could have endured, hiring a good coach to steady the ship, trading for arguably the best receiver in the league and solidifying the defence with proven commodities, they’re seen as far and away the fourth best team in the AFC West.
Vegas more than matched their rivals in the offseason arms race and are much closer to contending than some would have you believe.
It certainly seems like Josh McDaniels has learned his lesson from his ill fated stint in Denver over a decade ago and is not trying to be a mini-Belichick this time around.
We know he can dial up a successful offence and Vegas should be able to score more than enough most weeks to be in with a shot.
As long as health is on their side, they will without a doubt be in contention with the Chiefs and are a much better chance than their $7.00 quote.
Back Over 8.5 Wins @ $1.88
Back Vegas to Make the Playoffs @ $3.00
Back Vegas to Win the AFC West @ $7.00
Back DeVante Adams Over 10.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $2.10
AFC South
Houston Texans
LAST SEASON: 4-13 H2H | 7-10 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $15 | Win Division – $34 | Win Conference – $126 | Win Super Bowl – $201 || Win Total: 4.5
Houston is not a good team however you want to frame the issue.
A few pieces might be in place but top to bottom this is one of the worst rosters in the league.
It looks like their ceiling might be that of the Detroit Lions last year where they are overmatched most weeks but coach Lovie Smith will find a way to maximise what is at his disposal.
The Texans are at best a few years off being competitive but the player to watch will be Davis Mills who might offer some hope at the quarterback position in the post-Deshaun Watson era.
If they are better than they were last year that’s a successful season for them and I’ll be backing them to win at least 5 games.
Back Over 4.5 Wins @ $1.95
Indianapolis Colts
LAST SEASON: 9-8 H2H | 10-7 ATS
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.60 | Win Division – $1.80 | Win Conference – $13 | Win Super Bowl – $26 || Win Total: 10.5
Indianapolis won’t be left wondering after last season’s disastrous ending which saw them lose to Jacksonville in Week 18 and miss out on the playoffs.
They got rid of Carson Wentz who the coaching staff clearly did not trust and upgraded him with a slightly more reliable veteran in Matt Ryan.
But Ryan will be playing a supporting role anyway, it’s all on the shoulders of Jonathan Taylor who was nearly unstoppable last year.
It will be him or Derrick Henry taking out the rushing title this season and is worth a hedge by backing both.
Indianapolis might be the dark horse to emerge when it comes to competing for the top seed in the conference and I like their chances of topping their win total of 10.5.
Back Over 10.5 Wins @ $2.10
Back Jonathan Taylor Most Rushing Yards @ $5.50
Jacksonville Jaguars
LAST SEASON: 3-14 H2H | 5-12 ATS (1st Overall Draft Pick)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $5.50 | Win Division – $7.50 | Win Conference – $41 | Win Super Bowl – $81 || Win Total: 6.5
It can’t be any worse than it got last season for the Jaguars, right?
Trevor Lawrence had a horrible initiation to the NFL with his coach proving to be overmatched but they have given him Doug Pedersen this year, who did win a Super Bowl with Philadelphia.
It’s reasonable to expect him to pile up a few more passing yards given the Jags will still be chasing in plenty of games and that’s about all you can look for from them this season.
Back Trevor Lawrence Over 3755.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
Tennessee Titans
LAST SEASON: 12-5 H2H | 10-7 ATS (AFC 1st Seed – Lost Divisional Round v Cincinnati)
TEAM ODDS: Make Playoffs – $1.88 | Win Division – $2.50 | Win Conference – $17 | Win Super Bowl – $34 || Win Total: 9.5
When you think about it, Mike Vrabel getting Tennessee to the top seed in the AFC despite losing his all star running back Derrick Henry in early November might have been one of the best coaching jobs in recent memory.
Unfortunately relying on Ryan Tannehill came back to bite them in the playoffs (despite the return of Henry) with the quarterback having a three interception meltdown against Cincinnati but he is back again.
The hope will be that Henry is fully healed and ready to fire from the get go and I’ll be going all in on him to have another monster year.
Back Tennessee to Make the Playoffs @ $1.88
Back Derrick Henry Over 1350.5 Rushing Yards @ $2.00
Back Derrick Henry Most Rushing Yards @ $5.50
Back Derrick Henry Most Rushing Touchdowns @ $7.50
Back Derrick Henry to Win Comeback Player of the Year @ $4.50
Super Bowl LVII
Now for the big one, the Super Bowl picks.
As we have done in the past, there will be multiple selections, starting with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They have a very talented team at their disposal and may be the best placed NFC team to compete with whoever comes out of a loaded AFC field.
As for the AFC there’s half a dozen teams you could talk yourself into with Buffalo the favoured option, but with that franchise’s history in the Super Bowl, it’s tough to think they’ll get over the line.
Instead I’ll keep the faith in Mahomes and the Chiefs to get back to the big game.
Now for the long shot and it will come from the AFC given the imbalance of the conferences (though Minnesota at $41 is tempting).
With Josh McDaniels in place, Vegas might be primed to go on a run with that offence and if they can win the division while earning a couple of home playoff games in the process they could find themselves in the big game.
Back Tampa Bay to Win the Super Bowl @ $8.00
Back Kansas City to Win the Super Bowl @ $11.00
Back Las Vegas to Win the Super Bowl @ $34.00