European football’s premiere club competition returns in 2023 with the knockout stages of the Champions League kicking off this week.
The Round of 16 has dished up a number of fascinating ties to play out over the next month starting with two tournament heavyweight PSG and Bayern Munich facing off.
Chelsea will try and arrest their horrendous domestic form with a positive result against Borussia Dortmund while Liverpool has drawn the most dominant Champions League side of the last two decades in Real Madrid.
We’re previewing every Champions League tie below so read on and find our best bets below.
First Legs
Tottenham could have had a better build up to this Round of 16 trip to Italy after an embarrassing defeat at Leicester on the weekend.
However AC Milan are not in the best form ahead of this fixture either, with the weekend’s win 1-0 over Torino their first victory since January 4.
Their biggest issue has been a lack of goals with the side held scoreless in four of their last seven matches, a far cry from the team that scored eight goals in their final two group stage fixtures.
It is not a great recipe against a manager like Antonio Conte who will set up an organised Tottenham defence to try and jag a low scoring win to take back to North London.
A draw is not a bad result for Spurs and if they can hold out here, they will be well placed heading into the second leg.
Back the Draw @ $3.20
PSG has not had the best run of results in 2023 with the French powerhouse team suffering another defeat on the weekend away to Monaco which sparked a hostile reaction from the fanbase.
Such was the hostility, players had to directly address the supporters to try and calm them down after the match and a win in the first leg here would go a long way towards restoring some confidence.
After all, Bayern is still Bayern, although they have been held to a remarkable seven draws and one defeat from 20 league matches so far, putting them in a proper title race with Union Berlin and Dortmund.
In the last two weeks they have been able to have a couple of tune up fixtures with a 4-0 cup win over Mainz plus a 4-2 victory over Wolfsburg and 3-0 win over Bochum.
While the simultaneous tie will likely be a conservative, defensive battle, this has the makings of a much more wide open tie with both teams trying to win through their attack.
Both teams to score has hit in PSG’s last five matches and we should see plenty of goals here.
Back Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.73
Benfica might have lost a cup tie in extra time on the weekend, but they are still in a much stronger than their Belgian rivals heading into this tie.
Brugge have won just one of their nine matches since the World Cup and have been forced to settle for a draw on six occasions.
What is most surprising out of all of this is the fact they have scored in eight of those nine matches but they have also kept just one clean sheet in that time.
Take the price on Benfica on the road as they should have no problems in this one.
Back Benfica to Win @ $1.82
How can you have any faith in Chelsea at the moment?
The Todd Boehly era suffered another blow on the weekend with a bad draw against relegation strugglers West Ham on the weekend.
Now they head to one of the more intimidating venues in the Westfalenstadion and Borussia Dortmund’s Yellow Wall.
It is a surprise to see the market having these sides as close as they are considering Dortmund’s six match winning run since the German action resumed following the World Cup.
But that is all the more reason to take the price on Dortmund and back them to have something to defend when they had to London for the second leg.
Back Borussia Dortmund to Win @ $2.40
Serie A leaders Napoli have been borderline unstoppable all season, with an impressive run to the top of Group A setting the stage for this Champions League tie.
They took care of business in their first five matches, winning each of them by multiple goal margins before dropping what was essentially a dead rubber at Anfield on the final day.
In the league they have dropped points on just three occasions and have won their last five fixtures, so it makes perfect sense for them to be favoured ahead of their trip to Germany.
Frankfurt on the other hand is very much in the mix in a tight Bundesliga battle, five points off the lead and they were pushed all the way in Group D to make the knockout phase.
However the drain of a punishing domestic schedule might make this contest a bridge too far, especially when taking on an in-form opponent.
Look for the visitors to grind out a lead to take back to Italy by any means necessary.
Back Napoli to Win @ $2.15
The reigning club champions of Europe (and the world as of earlier this month), will take on the Liverpool side they defeated in the final last May.
That match was everything you would expect from a final in that it was tight, cagey and probably a good preview of what we can expect here.
Liverpool has found a bit of form in the last two weeks, recording back to back 2-0 wins over Everton and Newcastle as their defence has looks as cohesive as it has all season.
Real Madrid has experienced its share of stumbles this season, currently eight points adrift of Barcelona in La Liga, but the Champions League remains their speciality.
With a pair of clean sheets of their own since returning from the Club World Cup, Real should be able to keep a hot and cold Liverpool attack in check.
That should give both sides plenty to play for ahead of the return leg in Spain next month and we’re going to back a low scoring arm wrestle.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.15
Whose form line do you want to trust more heading into this first leg?
Porto has won their last 10 matches, 19 of their last 22 and have not been defeated since October 22, having also topped Group B.
Meanwhile, Inter has won five straight, sits in second place in Serie A and has lost just once in their last 11 matches.
There is no recent form to go off with this set to be the first competitive fixture between these sides since the group stage in late 2005.
Inter should be able to hold serve at home, however a one goal margin might not be enough to get them over the line come March but any win will do for now.
Back Inter Milan to Win @ $1.72
With the news surrounding Manchester City and their finances over the last few weeks, this might be their last chance to deliver Champions League success depending on the potential sanctions should they be found guilty.
After their Premier League campaign suffered a blow at Nottingham Forest on the weekend, they will want to use this as a chance to bounce back as they continue to push for a treble.
Both teams to score has hit in City’s last three matches which is not something that will make Pep Guardiola happy, but it is something worth considering for punters.
RB Leipzig has the second best goal scoring record in the Bundesliga and had no problems scoring in the group stage where they finished second in Group F behind Real Madrid.
There will be goals in this tie, it will just depend which striker shows up on the night as to which team scores more.
Back Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.00
Second Legs
FIRST LEG: Benfica Won 2-0
In the Champions League, you can never declare a tie over, but Benfica have got a fairly strong grip on this one.
Considering they have kept seven clean sheets from their last nine and have not conceded two or more goals in a match since January 16, it’s going to be a massive ask for Brugge here.
It’s just a case of how much the Portuguese club wants to try and push their advantage early on.
Their Belgian rivals have the capacity to score two goals, however a leaky defence that has kept just two clean sheets from their last 13 games which does not bode well for their chances here.
There is not a lot of value in the head to head market unless you give Brugge a chance of an upset, but a low scoring game does offer a bit of value.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.25
FIRST LEG: Dortmund Won 1-0
It’s a simple equation for Chelsea, win or go home and based on their recent results, the winning part might be a tough ask.
The Blues domestic form has been the source of much criticism with Graham Potter’s bloated squad stuck in mid table mediocrity.
While they won against Leeds on the weekend, that performance did nothing to alleviate the concerns that this is a club destined for failure over the next few months.
Dortmund on the other hand continued their imperious form on the weekend, winning their 12th match in a row in all competitions to stay level on points with Bayern at the top of the Bundesliga.
The Germans’ recent history in England is not great with their last win across the channel coming in March 2016 in the Europa League knockout phase against Tottenham.
On their last four trips they have been sent home defeated and their last Champions League win in London came in the Group Stage of the 2013/14 campaign when they beat Arsenal 2-0.
However now appears to be as good a time as any to break those streaks and their price to win appears to be way over the odds and well worth taking a long shot on.
Back Borussia Dortmund to Win @ $4.00
FIRST LEG: Bayern Won 1-0
The Germans went to France and snatched a hard fought 1-0 victory in the first leg, however they will be forced to battle right to the end of this second fixture.
Holding the upper hand, their cause will have been boosted by the news that PSG’s Brazilian superstar Neymar is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury.
Although the fact Christophe Galtier will still be able to rely on the likes of Lionel Messi and Neymar means you cannot completely count out the French side.
In a situation like this however, you have to like Bayern and the removal of the away goals rule only further benefits their chances.
If PSG looks to go on the front foot they will be able to keep pace with them and if this becomes an arm wrestle where one goal decides it, they have the difference makers to score that one goal.
Back Bayern Munich to Win @ $1.80
FIRST LEG: AC Milan Won 1-0
Milan battled it out in the first leg, coming away with the slightest of advantages to take back to England.
They will need every imaginable advantage when they kick off in North London however with a poor record in the country over the last few years likely to weigh on them ahead of this fixture.
Since 2010, they have managed just two draws and four defeats in England, however working in their favour is the fact that one of those draws did come against Tottenham at the old White Hart Lane in 2011.
Tottenham continues to struggle for consistency with Antonio Conte stuck watching on the sidelines, as the club fell to its second straight defeat on the weekend.
It’s tough to have any faith in them as favourites, even with Milan’s poor record in Europe.
Knowing a draw is enough for them, it would not be at all surprising to see the visitors close the game down and be happy with spoils being shared on the night.
Back the Draw @ $3.40
FIRST LEG: Inter Milan Won 1-0
Inter Milan travel to Portugal in the box seat with a one goal head start over FC Porto in this second leg of the round of 16.
Porto were excellent in the first leg but an 78th minute red card all but sealed their fate allowing a Romelu Lukaku late winner winning the game for Milan.
I’m expecting another low scoring contest and the best chance for Porto is to keep their opposition scoreless through 90 minutes.
Their is value for Porto to progress through to the next round in front of their home fans.
FC Porto to qualify @ $3.50
FIRST LEG: 1-1 Draw
Manchester City are very much alive in the English Premier League title race but their focus shifts to Europe on Wednesday morning.
They head into the second leg of the round of 16 with the scores locked at 1-1 and wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a low scoring contest in the north of England.
There will be no hiding from the goal scoring prowess of Erling Haaland and I expect him to get plenty of opportunities to secure Manchester City a pathway into the Quarter Finals.
SGM – Haaland to have 2+ shots on target AND under 3.5 goals @ $2.87
FIRST LEG: Napoli Won 2-0
Frankfurt have failed to win in their last four matches in all competitions and they are certainly up against it in this contest.
They didn’t help their cause in the first leg with a red card in 58th minute and Napoli put two goals in the net either side.
Back at home, it’s hard to see Napoli butchering this but the market has this just about right and I have struggled to find any value.
No Bet
FIRST LEG: Real Madrid Won 5-2
A demolition job in the first leg by the 14 time Champions League winners means this becomes a bit of a dead rubber as Liverpool attempt the impossible heading to the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid will be looking to close this game down for as long as they can making it even less likely for Liverpool to qualify.
Liverpool will create chances but ultimately I’m predicting a low scoring affair with some value available in that market.
Mohamed Salah to have 1+ shot on goal AND under 3.5 goals @ $2.33