After an opening fortnight of the 2023 NRL premiership that has turned many expectations on their head, Round 3 gets underway with massive grudge matches on Thursday and Friday, as well as the next instalment of the Dolphins’ debut-season odyssey as they hit the road for the first time.
Saturday features two clashes between Round 2 losers, plus a Suncorp Stadium showdown between impressive last-start winners.
No team comes into the weekend under more scrutiny than Wests Tigers, however, as they line up for their third straight Sunday afternoon suburban ground assignment, while Canberra is also desperate to avoid going 3-0 when it hosts Cronulla.
MANLY SEA EAGLES V PARRAMATTA EELS
Parramatta is striving to avoid its first 0-3 start to a season since collecting the wooden spoon in 2018, after a pair of narrow home losses.
There’s been positive signs in a golden point defeat to Melbourne (16-12) and losing a high-scoring thriller to Cronulla (30-26) for the 2022 grand finalsits, particularly in the form of recruits J’maine Hopgood and Josh Hodgson.
Errors brought them undone against the Sharks, while conceding five tries in the first hour to a side missing Nicho Hynes is less than ideal. The Eels are unchanged this week.
Manly had a bye weekend to bask in their resounding 31-6 Round 1 defeat of Canterbury that featured a strong return from injury for Tom Trbojevic, a Daly Cherry-Evans masterclass and a dominant display from the engine-room.
Josh Schuster is back for the Sea Eagles, replacing Cooper Johns to make just his fifth NRL start at five-eighth.
After three straight losses to their archrivals, the Eels won both clashes against the Sea Eagles in 2022 – in a 22-20 thriller at home in Round 11 and a 36-20 victory at Brookvale in Round 21. This fixture has a strong high-scoring record and the over looks a sound play here.
Brad Arthur’s confounding use of the bench has come under scrutiny after the Eels’ two losses as a weakened pack attempts to lay a decent platform for Moses, Brown and Gutherson to weave their magic. Another narrow loss looms in their first away game with Manly at full-strength.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Win by 1-12 @ $2.80
SGM: MANLY WIN / OVER 41.5 POINTS / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL PENISINI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.66
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V DOLPHINS
It’s taken only three rounds for the previously unfancied Dolphins to be installed as a favourite – and they still look good value at $1.55 despite being on the road for the first time in their brief history.
The Dolphins put aside the euphoria of their debut boilover against the Roosters brilliantly, grafting out a 20-14 nail-biter against Canberra in wet Redcliffe conditions. It was equal parts toughness and composure, with Sean O’Sullivan and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow conjuring a 77th-minute winner.
Their rugged, experienced pack is set to prove a match for any in the NRL, while the spine is far exceeding expectations. Kodi Nikorima comes in at hooker for the suspended Jeremy Marshall-King and Ray Stone returns on the bench at the expense of Round 2 debutant Mason Teague.
Newcastle is counting the casualties from a gallant 16-14 win over Wests Tigers last Sunday to get off the mark for 2023. What it lacked as a spectacle was more than made up for in guts as Kalyn Ponga, Jayden Brailey and Tyson Frizell exited with injuries and Jacob Saifiti was sent off.
Consequently, firebrand Tyson Gamble will start at five-eighth this week, Phoenix Crossland at hooker, Brodie Jones in the second-row and Jack Hetherington at prop. Ryan Rivett, Mat Croker and Dylan Lucas are the new faces on the bench.
Their stoic efforts last week notwithstanding, the Knights haven’t started the season particularly well and the loss of arguably their four best players on top of previous injuries to Adam Elliott and Kurt Mann puts them in a very tough spot here.
The Dolphins’ forward strength and depth is set to prove a decisive advantage this week.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: DOLPHINS/DOLPHINS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / KNIGHTS UNDER 16.5 POINTS / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $10.95
SYDNEY ROOSTERS V SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
South Sydney has taken the reins in this bitter rivalry in recent seasons, winning five of the teams’ last six clashes. The Roosters won the Allianz Stadium reopening in the final round of last season, but the Rabbitohs turned the tables in the elimination final powder keg a week later.
This showdown promises to be the fieriest of the NRL regular season, with memories and wounds still fresh from ‘sin-bin Sunday’ in September.
The adversaries are both 1-1, though Souths have been the more impressive. Following their 27-18 win at Cronulla in Round 1, the Rabbitohs went to Penrith and were thoroughly outplayed for 60 minutes before staging a late Latrell-led rally in a 16-10 loss.
Cody Walker and Lachlan Ilias had a tough night out against the Panthers, while the absence of Tevita Tatola, Hame Sele – who both return this week – and Jai Arrow was palpable.
The Roosters were embarrassed 28-18 by the Dolphins and – with Joey Manu’s returned tempered by further injuries in the pack – were still very rusty in a 20-12 win over the Warriors at home.
The heavyweights dominated yardage and possession but struggled to find a knockout blow after getting out to 18-6 on the back of a Jaxson Paulo double and some flashes of brilliance from Joseph Suaalii, inviting the Warriors back into the game late.
But the Roosters’ cause is bolstered by the return of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Victor Radley, while Brandon Smith (ribs) has been cleared after playing a limited role for the second straight game.
The Rabbitohs are $1.62 favourites but this shapes as a must-see flip-of-the-coin barnburner in front of a packed house at Allianz. Points should be harder to come by the recent derbies – if everyone can stay on the paddock – and the under is shaping as a good play.
Tip: Back Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 6.5 POINTS / RABBITOHS UNDER 20.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CODY WALKER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.61
GOLD COAST TITANS V MELBOURNE STORM
Gold Coast and Melbourne are both aiming to bounce back from disappointing 13-plus defeats in Round 2.
After a heartening 22-10 win over the Tigers first up, the Titans were fast out of the blocks again to lead the Dragons 12-2 but slipped into some familiar defensive habits in a 32-18 defeat.
Strong showings from AJ Brimson, Sam Verrills and Tino Fa’asuamaleuai were countered by a forgettable day out for halfback Tanah Boyd.
The Titans are boosted by centre Brian Kelly’s return from suspension, with Phillip Sami moving to the wing and Jojo Fifita dropping out, but Verrills is a huge loss that sees Chris Randall start at hooker.
The Storm were uncharacteristically terrible in a 26-12 defeat to Canterbury, conceding the first five tries of the match. Positive late signs came in the form of the potent Jahrome Hughes-Eliesa Katoa combination on the right edge but Craig Bellamy was in no mood to talk about half-full glasses.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona’s injury made further inroads to Melbourne’s depleted forward stocks but that’s been partially alleviated by the return of Tui Kamikamica and Tariq Sims.
Manwhile, Justin Olam and Xavier Coates are back to shore up the backline. Jonah Pezet has been named to debut off the bench and should see plenty of time in the halves coming on for makeshift No.6 Tyran Wishart.
Melbourne is on an eight-match winning streak against Gold Coast, with six of those victories coming by 14-plus margins. Last season’s sole clash saw the Storm prevailed 32-14 at AAMI Park in Round 21.
It will come as little surprise that the Storm are 13-3 coming off a loss by more than 12 points since late-2014. Their attack has been subpar and won’t return to normal capacity until Cameron Munster is back, but they should get past a Titans side that beat only one eventual finalist across 2021-22.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-6.5) @ $1.90
SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / JUSTIN OLAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / PHILLIP SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / OVER 41.5 POINTS @ $30.37
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS V WARRIORS
North Queensland Cowboys have been operating well below their 2022 capacity, putting in two underwhelming second-half displays in their 1-1 start, and have been hit by the suspension stick ahead of Round 3.
After squeaking past the Raiders in Round 1, the Cowboys were overrun in the second stanza of a 28-16 loss to the Broncos. Scott Drinkwater and Peta Hiku have been rubbed out, replaced by second-gamer Tom Chester and Gehamat Shibasaki, respectively.
The Warriors have shown plenty of heart and defensive commitment in the opening rounds, beating the Knights 20-12 and hanging tough in the heat to lose to the Roosters by the same score last week.
Shaun Johnson and the indefatigable Tohu Harris were standouts at Allianz, but the Warriors have lost fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad – replaced by debutant Taine Tuaupiki – and Jackson Ford to head knocks. Bayley Sironen is elevated to the 17 in a reshuffled pack.
The Warriors have won five of the teams’ last eight encounters but just one of their last six in Townsville. After Shaun Johnson got the Warriors home in an early-season golden point thriller in Redcliffe, the Cowboys hit their straps and hammered the battling nomads 48-4 in Round 23.
Back-to-back trips to Australia and CNK’s absence, in particular, will test the Warriors’ resolve. The Cowboys should have a distinct edge in the middle of the park – but they have drifted in and out of both games so far. The Warriors are 2-0 against the line in 2023 and are getting another big start.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cove the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90
SGM: COWBOYS BY 1-12 / UNDER 42.5 POINTS / KYLE FELDT TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $5.75
BRISBANE BRONCOS V ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Following stirring wins as a massive underdog at Penrith and in a derby blockbuster pick ’em, Brisbane confront the new challenge of being a short favourite to put away St George Illawarra on Saturday night.
The Broncos have stormed into premiership contention and will be aiming to pump the breaks on the hype, particularly after Reece Walsh’s sizzling debut in the 28-16 defeat of the Cowboys. In-form Jesse Arthars comes into a red-hot backline for injured winger Corey Oates.
The Dragons responded to immense pressure of a dismal summer and pre-season – as well as an early 12-2 deficit – to blow the Titans away 32-18 with five unanswered tries in the space of 36 minutes.
Ben Hunt was typically outstanding, but the biggest positives to come out of the win were the performance of fullback novice Tyrell Sloan and an unheralded forward pack.
The Saints have an excellent recent record against the Broncos, winning six of their last seven clashes. An Origin-depleted Broncos side won 32-18 in Round 17 last year, but in the final round the Dragons got up 22-12 in Sydney as Kevin Walters’ side completed their late-season implosion.
This certainly looks like a better spot for the Dragons than it would have a week ago. But they have won just one of their last 15 interstate games and their defence will be tested to its limit by the likes of Walsh, Ezra Mam and Herbie Farnworth, while the Broncos’ work without the ball has been as good as anyone’s.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.25
SGM: BRONCOS -11.5 / OVER 42.5 POINTS / MIKAELE RAVALAWA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.81
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS V WESTS TIGERS
Canterbury responded admirably to a bitterly disappointing Round 1 loss. Fellow rebuilding battlers Wests Tigers did the opposite.
The Bulldogs were a different team after going down 31-6 to Manly, putting an out-of-sorts Melbourne to the sword at AAMI Park in a 26-12 win. Encouragingly, it was a host of tyros – headlined by Jacob Kiraz – who shone brightest as the Bulldogs scored the first five tries.
The Tigers, meanwhile, are already in a cavernous hole thanks to home losses to Gold Coast and Newcastle. Their attack has been a complete rabble and their inability to beat a Knights side stricken by injuries, sin-bins and send-offs defied belief.
Under-fire Tim Sheens has been forced into changes, with Daine Laurie and Tommy Talau out. Charlie Staines moves to fullback with Junior Tupou and Starford To’a coming into the backline. Isaiah Papali’i is suspended and Jake Simpkin is injured; Shawn Blore, Fonua Pole and Brandon Wakeham are back.
The rebuilding clubs met twice in the space of a month last season while they were both moving past midyear coach sackings. The Tigers won 36-22 at Leichhardt in Round 11, while the Bulldogs carved out a 36-12 victory at CommBank in Round 15.
Meanwhile, Canterbury is aiming to rectify an ordinary record at its spiritual home. The Bulldogs have won just one of their last eight at Belmore.
The Bulldogs are hot $1.30 favourites to make it two wins in a row. If the Tigers don’t show some sort of fire or general improvement, there really is something wrong at the club – but don’t expect the backs-to-the-wall factor to be enough to inspire an upset.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BULLDOGS 13+ / BULLDOGS OVER 24.5 POINTS / JOSH ADDO-CARR TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TIRES / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.87
CANBERRA RAIDERS V CRONULLA SHARKS
Canberra has been the least disappointing of the three 0-2 teams, but the pressure is nevertheless on the club to get off the mark at home after spending the first two weekends in Queensland.
The Raiders fought back bravely in a 19-18 loss to the Cowboys and went down 20-14 in a slippery slugfest against the Dolphins, conceding the winning points in the last five minutes of both games. Hampered by injuries and suspension, the Raiders don’t get anyone of note back this week.
Cronulla opened its 2023 account in impressive fashion despite linchpin Nicho Hynes’ absence so far. After a 27-18 loss to Souths, the Sharks outlasted the Eels in a 30-26 thriller with Will Kennedy bagging a hat-trick and Matt Moylan stepping up significantly on a poor Round 1 showing.
Hynes is still a week away, while the Sharks’ only change sees Jack Williams return to the bench for Connor Tracey.
The Sharks need to tip up a considerable recent hoodoo to come away with the two points, losing their last eight against the Raiders. Last season the Raiders won an opening-round thriller 24-19 at home, while they racked up a stunning 30-10 victory over the high-flying Sharks in Magic Round.
The Raiders crafted a solid 8-3 record at GIO Stadium in 2022 – a season in which they scraped into eighth. Expect the familiar surrounds to be a significant boost for the Green Machine, who look good underdog value if Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty can put their stamp on the game.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win @ $2.30
SGM: RAIDERS +3.5 / UNDER 43.5 POINTS / JESSE RAMIEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.45