Three rounds in and the NRL premiership picture only keeps getting murkier as unfancied teams and 2022 also-rans carry on surging and big guns continue to languish.
Catch up on the highs and lows of another rollercoaster NRL weekend.
Points-fests and upsets
We’re only three rounds in, but the 2023 premiership is already shaping as the most even and unpredictable in at least five years.
The Top 8 features just two of last year’s finalists, the Broncos and Dolphins are 3-0, while the Eels and Tigers are the yet to get off the mark.
In Round 3, four head-to-head underdogs won: the Roosters came from 10 points down to pip the Rabbitohs; the Titans outlasted the Storm and the Warriors dominated the Cowboys in back-to-back Saturday boilovers; and the Raiders held on at home against the Sharks to chalk up their first victory.
Underdogs are a remarkable 11-13 so far in 2023 while going 15-9 against the line.
12 of 16 matches in the opening two rounds went under the total points line, but on a sweltering weekend across the eastern seaboard, six of eight encounters went over.
The round average of 52.3 points was up from the first fortnight’s average of 35.3.
The four highest-scoring matches of the season to date all occurred in Round 3, for comparison, in 2022 there were just three instances of both teams scoring 30-plus points, however it happened twice this weekend, the Manly-Parramatta and Gold Coast-Melbourne thrillers both finishing six tries apiece.
Remarkably, there was just one scoreless quarter across the drinks-break-fuelled round: the last 20 minutes of the Warriors’ grinding win in Townsville.
The Schu fits
Unbeaten Manly returned from their early bye with a nervy 34-30 home win over Parramatta on Thursday night, coming dangerously close to blowing a late double-digit lead in a wild finish that featured four tries in the last eight minutes.
Defensive concentration aside, it was a vital result for the rebuilding Sea Eagles and was enriched by Josh Schuster’s sensational performance after missing the opening round with injury.
Schuster has been pining for the five-eighth spot for some time and many questioned the enigmatic back-row giant’s capacity to plug the gap left by ever-reliable club great Kieran Foran.
But in just his fifth NRL start in the No.6, Josh Schuster was best on ground.
The 21-year-old laid on four tries – two from passes, two from kicks – with his exceedingly rare kitbag of skills.
The club-first decision to sit out Samoa’s World Cup campaign appears to have paid dividends – Schuster looks fit and focused.
Manly’s ability to grind out tough wins against good teams remains unproven, but with Schuster’s injection into the spine alongside Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic, the Sea Eagles’ match-winner quotient is up there with any team in the NRL.
The Sea Eagles’ premiership price has been slashed to $12 – fifth favourites for the title.
Winning ugly ahead of derby blockbuster
Brisbane and the Dolphins both carved out stirring, character-filled wins in the opening two rounds to head into last weekend as warm favourites.
The fast-starting neighbours subsequently hit flat spots, yet they finished with a wet sail to record the two biggest wins of the round.
The Broncos trailed the Dragons 16-6 and still had plenty to do at 18-all with 10 minutes left.
But emphasising the firepower at Kevin Walters’ disposal, Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam and Kotoni Staggs exploded as the Broncos ran in four late tries for a 40-18 victory.
In their first-ever away match, the fledgling Dolphins were making hard work of their assignment against the severely depleted Knights, surrendering a 10-point advantage as the discipline and consistency that marked their wins over the Roosters and Raiders went out the window.
But the Dolphins showed plenty of enterprise to pile on four tries in the last 22 minutes and prevail 36-20, with wingers Tesi Niu and Jamayne Isaako finishing with five tries between them.
Those streaky performances represent another step forward for both teams – winning comfortably despite playing well below their best for extended periods – and sets up a dream foundational derby at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.
Wayne Bennett’s mind games are certain to permeate the build-up to a mouth-watering sell-out clash.
The Broncos have moved to equal-third in grand final winner betting at $9, while the Dolphins have shortened to $26 for the title – and just $2.50 for a finals appearance few gave them a chance of prior to their debut season getting underway.
Webster’s Warriors the real deal?
The Warriors are showing early signs of giving the Dolphins a run for their money in the Cinderella story department.
Hitting rock bottom at the tail-end of a three-year marooning in Australia – finishing second-last in 2022 with the worst defensive record and equal-lowest win tally in the club’s history – the Warriors are enjoying a remarkable turnaround under rookie mentor Andrew Webster.
Following on from a first-up win over the Knights and a brave defeat to the Roosters, it all came together in steamy Townsville as the Warriors stunned the Cowboys 26-12 on Saturday – a win hailed as unquestionably their best since, ironically, the Todd Payten-led late-2020 mini-revival.
Ex-Penrith assistant Webster’s chief aim of resilience becoming part of the Warriors’ DNA has taken immediate effect.
Only the Panthers have conceded less points per game and their goal-line defence has arguably been the most impressive in the competition.
After conceding two early tries from kicks, the composed Warriors kept their line intact for the last 65 minutes against a team that averaged 28 points at home in 2022.
The Warriors’ pack dominated their vaunted, international-stacked Cowboys counterparts, while one of the NRL’s more unheralded, strikepower-less attacking units is finding ways to score through the subtle class of Wayde Egan, Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris, and outstanding buys Te Maire Martin and Dylan Walker.
Finally getting the opportunity to play at Mt Smart for the first time in 2023 this Sunday against the Bulldogs, the reborn Warriors remain a premiership longshot at $51 and are the best value available in the Top 8 market at $4.50.
Early crossroads for ’22 finalists
It’s too early to be pushing the panic button, but six of last year’s finalists are languishing in the bottom half with losing records, with one yet to register a win and three others staring down the barrel of a third straight defeat in Round 4.
Parramatta is 0-3 after a trio of four-point defeats to Melbourne (in golden point), Cronulla and Manly. The Eels are down on troops, but whether suspended Ryan Matterson and injured Shaun Lane would have got the Eels over the line in any of those three losses is debatable.
Just three teams in the past 17 seasons have lost their first four games and recovered to make the playoffs – underlining the importance of Thursday’s grand final rematch at CommBank Stadium for the blue-and-golds.
North Queensland’s drop-off has been arguably the most glaring, following up a 19-18 escape against Canberra with ultimately convincing losses to Brisbane and the Warriors.
One of the most consistent and disciplined outfits of 2022 – as well as possessing among the most stable, injury-free rosters – the Cowboys have been outscored 40-7 in the second half of their matches. Saturday’s home fixture against the 2-1 Titans shapes as must-win for Todd Payten’s side.
The Storm, under the weight of a shocking injury toll, have also sunk to consecutive losses after a nail-biting Round 1 win, inexplicably conceding 64 points to Bulldogs and Titans teams that were both coming off heavy defeats.
Melbourne has not started a season 3-1 since 2004 – and there’s no bulletproof glass strong enough to withstand the Bellamy blow-up in the coach’s box that will unfold if the Storm can’t halt their slide against the woeful, winless Wests Tigers on Friday night at AAMI Park.
South Sydney is under considerably less pressure, but the bare bones of their season so far are thus: a scratchy win over Hynes-less Cronulla and back-to-back losses to fellow heavyweights Penrith and Sydney Roosters in Friday night blockbusters after spending all week talking up a big game.
The Rabbitohs would be well advised to leave the promotional hype to the NRL’s marketing department this week ahead of a crunch game against the Sea Eagles on Saturday.
Souths ($7.50) and the Storm ($9.00) remain entrenched in the top four of the premiership winner’s market, but the Cowboys ($17) and Eels ($21) have drifted significantly.