The NRL ladder after six rounds features just three of last season’s Top 8 finishers after a topsy-turvy Easter weekend of footy, with three underdogs snaring gutsy wins, three favourites unleashing unexpectedly savage beatdowns, and an under-strength outfit snatching a win at the death.
The points flowed freely – with five games clearing the line via 50-point totals – but so did the injuries as a several clubs assess the damage of some devastating setbacks.
Here’s the lay of NRL-land with nearly a quarter of the regular season in the books.
High fliers’ wings clipped
The Broncos and Warriors headed into Easter first and second in the competition, respectively, and favourites to consolidate their positions with Round 6 victories – but both had their colours lowered as just three points now separate top spot and ninth on the NRL ladder.
A model of effervescent consistency across the opening five weeks, Brisbane appeared uncharacteristically flat in a 20-14 loss to struggling Canberra. The Broncos were outenthused in their own backyard by a side besieged by injury, suspension and form woes, despite a healthy possession advantage.
On the back of an all-time great comeback at Cronulla, the Warriors were made to pay for another dusty start by Newcastle on Sunday night. Penalties, errors and ordinary defence on the edges piggybacked the Knights to a 22-6 halftime lead.
The Warriors rallied – with Shaun Johnson again in sublime touch – to claw back to within two points, but with Wayde Egan and Te Maire Martin exiting the game early, errors crept back in and Andrew Webster’s feted outfit fizzled to a 34-24 defeat.
Coming off their respective most disappointing performances of a glittering start to 2023, they both get prime opportunities to bounce back on Saturday: the Warriors host the out-of-sorts Cowboys, while the Broncos head down the highway to face the undermanned Titans.
The Broncos ($8.00) and Warriors ($31) have held steady in the Grand Final Winner market, while the Broncos remain second in the Top 4 stakes at $1.55 and the Warriors are rated better than an even chance of a Top 8 return at $1.90.
Statements from unfancied sides
It was a weekend for the unfashionables with lowly-rated sides the Dolphins, Canberra, Gold Coast and Newcastle – all teams placed in the bottom six of the premiership market (despite all but the Raiders sitting in the Top 8 with winning records) – pulling off stirring Round 6 wins.
The Dolphins bounced back from a limp 38-12 loss to St George Illawarra with a 32-22 victory over desperate North Queensland in Townsville, reclaiming a top-four spot in the process.
Tom Gilbert provided the grunt, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Jamayne Isaako – with five tries between them – the polish as Wayne Bennett’s line-up continues to punch above its weight.
The depleted Raiders chalked up just their second win of the season over the previously unbeaten Broncos on the road, a massive boilover personified by the performances of under-fire No.7 Jamal Fogarty and firebrand Corey Horsburgh, who stood tall against the hosts’ vaunted pack.
Jarrod Croker’s heroic comeback for his first NRL game in nearly a year had to rank as one of the season’s feelgood stories to date, capped by a shock 20-14 result.
The Titans were somewhat surprising home favourites against the Dragons with Kieran Foran and AJ Brimson out, and seemed destined to come up short despite a career-best display from winger Phillip Sami.
But young half Toby Sexton – out of favour since last appearing in first grade in Round 20 last year – seized the opportunity to level the scores with a 76th-minute solo try. Tanah Boyd buried the pressure goal for a 20-18 win and a 3-2 record for the Titans.
The Knights, another team significantly hampered by injury and suspension, were outstanding in a 34-24 Sunday night victory over the Warriors, running one of the NRL’s more impressive defensive sides ragged despite finishing on the wrong side of the possession and run metres ledgers.
Former rep forward Tyson Frizzell was in vintage form, while fullback Lachie Miller’s breakout campaign rolls on and briefly out-of-favour winger Dom Young had another blinder as the Knights improved to 3-1-2.
All four teams – the Dolphins ($2.50), Raiders ($3.00), Titans ($4.00) and Knights ($5.00) – underlined their value in the Top 8 market in what continues to prove the most even NRL season in years.
Storm warning
While two-time premier and $3.75 title favourite Penrith reaffirmed its benchmark status with a second straight blowout win and Souths racked up a half-century on Good Friday, Melbourne was the big heavyweight market mover following an authoritative victory in a Thursday blockbuster.
The Storm, navigating a heavy injury toll on top of a raft of departures from the engine-room over the off-season, looked a shadow of themselves in a 2-2 start to 2023.
But a defence-dominated 18-10 upset of the Rabbitohs in Sydney proved the perfect reset, before they put a sloppy Sydney Roosters side to the sword 28-8 at AAMI Park.
Jahrome Hughes teamed up with man-of-the-match Cameron Munster for the first time since Round 1 as the Storm put on a clinic, with Dally M Medal leader Harry Grant again superb and Nick Meaney continuing to boost his stocks while filling the Ryan Papenhuyzen-shaped gap at fullback.
The Storm have shortened to $7.00 in the premiership stakes as they eye off a big month, travelling to take on the Sea Eagles this Friday before three straight at home against the Warriors, Rabbitohs and Broncos.
Doueihi blow compounds Tigers’ plight
Wests Tigers finished another difficult week – featuring yet another media pile-on – with another loss. The 28-22 defeat to Parramatta in the traditional Easter Monday clash was arguably the 0-6 Tigers’ best of a dismal 2023…but it’s potentially left them even further behind the NRL field.
Tim Sheens’ embattled charges dominated almost every statistical category: 57 percent possession, 1,963 run metres to 1,491, six line-breaks to four, 39 tackle-breaks to 17, and huge wins in the post-contact metres, average set distance and offload counts.
It wasn’t enough to get them ahead on the scoreboard, however, despite a spirited second-half revival that cut a 22-6 deficit back to two points with nine minutes to play.
The agony of another loss was amplified by a suspected ACL injury to their most constructive player, five-eighth Adam Doueihi – the third of his career. That likely leaves the maligned Luke Brooks and back-up half Brandon Wakeham to steer the Tigers out of the mire.
Brent Naden also suffered a suspected broken collarbone to further thin out the Tigers’ backline stocks.
Other clubs are figuring out how to fill gaping holes left by Round 6 mishaps.
Newcastle skipper and hooker Jayden Brailey has reportedly suffered another ACL tear to the same knee that saw him miss all but two games of the 2020 season.
Brailey was also sidelined for most of 2022 with an Achilles injury and leaves a huge gap at dummy-half for a gritty Knights side whose casualty ward has been bursting at the seams all season.
The Warriors are sweating on Te Maire Martin’s scans, with a fractured fibula feared for the five-eighth. With fellow recruit Luke Metcalf still absent with an injury suffered during the trials, Ronald Volkman shapes as the rejuvenated Shaun Johnson’s halves partner for the medium term.
Meanwhile, Canterbury strike weapon Josh Addo-Carr’s hopes of a NSW Origin recall have been shattered by a syndesmosis injury. Addo-Carr requires surgery that will keep the flyer out for eight weeks at a crucial juncture for the Bulldogs.
Strapping Cowboys forward is also slated to be out for two months thanks to a throat injury incurred in the defeat to the Dolphins.
Fringe finalists defensive frailties laid bare
Canterbury and Manly will be satisfied enough with their mid-table standing after six rounds – and they’re well-backed in the Top 8 market, paying $2.80 and $1.80, respectively, to feature in the 2023 finals.
But both teams will no doubt be put through their defensive paces on the training paddock after threadbare efforts without the ball on the weekend.
After leaking 32 points in an underwhelming draw with Newcastle in Mudgee in Round 5, Manly had six tries put on them in the first 52 minutes of a 44-12 loss at Penrith on Friday. Anthony Seibold’s charges missed an eye-watering 42 tackles and now rank equal-15th for points conceded per game.
Earlier that day, the Bulldogs allowed Souths to rattle up nine four-pointers in a 50-16 defeat – five of them coming in the last 17 minutes of an unacceptable fadeout. A total of 30 missed tackles and 10 Rabbitoh line-breaks saw the Bulldogs concede a half-ton for just the third time since 2008.
The 24.17 points per game Cameron Ciraldo’s team are leaking is a bad combination with an attack that is scoring more points than only the current bottom-two, the Tigers and Raiders.
The Sea Eagles face a gruelling test against the Storm at home on Friday night, while the Bulldogs meet the Eels in a crunch Sunday afternoon encounter that will leave the loser languishing in the bottom four.