NRL Round 8 gets underway with a pair of blockbusters on Thursday and Friday nights, while it’s getting desperate for Canterbury and North Queensland as they host in-form opponents on Saturday.
Yet another Queensland derby and hapless Wests Tigers’ bid to avoid going 0-7 fill up Sunday’s docket, before the schedule concludes on Tuesday with the two, always marvellous traditional Anzac Day showdowns.
South Sydney and Penrith get Round 8 underway in explosive style with the heavyweights squaring off for the second time this season. Souths have now lost 10 of their last 11 against Penrith and were perhaps flattered by the 16-10 final scoreline against them on the road in Round 2.
After talking up a big game, the Rabbitohs (particularly Cody Walker) seemed preoccupied with the niggle, before Latrell Mitchell inspired a late surge.
It was the start of a 1-3 run for Souths, but they have improved to fifth with four wins courtesy of a convincing victories over the Bulldogs (50-16) and Dolphins (36-14) in the past two rounds.
Cody Walker was at his sizzling best as the Rabbitohs recovered from an eight-point halftime deficit to win the second half against the Dolphins 28-0, while Jai Arrow’s big performance was another key takeaway.
The second-placed Panthers have won their last three, thrashing the Raiders (53-12) and Sea Eagles (44-12) before digging deep to eclipse the Knights (16-15) in golden point.
Nathan Cleary was the hero with a pair of field goals as the premiers underlined their ability to play well below their best and come away with a win against an in-form opponent. Remarkably, the Panthers are yet to concede more than 17 points in a game.
Keaon Koloamatangi is a big out for Souths, with Michael Chee Kam replacing him. Izaac Thompson (ankle) returns at the expense of Taane Milne. Penrith’s Liam Martin is sidelined again, which sees Scott Sorenson come into the starting pack and Lindsay Smith join the bench.
The Panthers are deserving $1.50 favourites but this shapes as another close-fought clash; the 6.5-point line looks too big. Both teams have strong unders records in 2023 – four of Penrith’s games have produced 33 or less, four of Souths’ 38 or less – so that may be the most astute play here.
Tip: Back Under 39.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / RABBITOHS UNDER 15.5 POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.31
Another huge encounter with Parramatta gunning for its fourth win in five games and Brisbane striving to maintain its outright lead atop the NRL ladder.
The Eels have picked off low-hanging fruit in the past fortnight, defying the stats to hold off Wests Tigers 28-22 on Easter Monday – with Mitchell Moses the difference – and powering to a 30-4 win over the injury-hit Bulldogs in Round 7.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard was outstanding last week and will look to lead the charge opposite possible NSW teammate Payne Haas and potential Origin opponent Patrick Carrigan here. Josh Hodgson returns for the Eels after being a late withdrawal from the Bulldogs game.
The 6-1 Broncos bounced back from their flat 20-14 home loss to the Raiders with a 43-26 defeat of the Titans – though a try against the run of play on halftime when they trailed 14-6 proved pivotal. The brilliance of Reece Walsh and the poise of Adam Reynolds again came to the fore.
Meanwhile, the Broncos get Thomas Flegler and Corey Oates back, which bumps Keenan Palasia and Jesse Arthars out of the 17.
Parramatta has won six of its last seven against Brisbane, though the Broncos carved out an emphatic 36-14 victory at CommBank Stadium in Round 19 last year…just before their season imploded, including a 53-6 loss to the Eels at home in Round 24. The last three clashes produced 50+ totals.
The Broncos can’t afford to get caught on their heels again after a couple of tardy starts – the Eels are strong front-runners. Haas and co. have to set the early platform for the visits.
The Eels, tempting $2.24 home underdogs, are 33-13 at CommBank but this looks like another barnburner where betting on the total line seems less daunting than picking a winner.
Tip: Back Over 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.33
Cronulla Sharks are warm favourites on the road to account for a depleted Canterbury Bulldogs outfit coming off two big losses. Cameron Ciraldo’s side – with Josh Addo-Carr and Viliame Kikau facing lengthy stints on the sidelines – were swamped 50-16 by Souths and 30-4 by Parramatta.
The Bulldogs’ forwards have been putting up a fight but they’re getting torched on the edges and are struggling for variety on attack. Only the Tigers are scoring less than Canterbury’s 15.3 points per game.
The Bulldogs’ injury crisis worsened with Jacob Kiraz suffering a knee injury, though mercifully Jake Averillo and Andrew Davey have been named despite picking up injuries against the Eels.
Declan Casey comes onto one wing and Braidon Burns the other, with Jayden Okunbor reverting to the bench and Jackson Topine out.
The Sharks came off the bye – and a shocking Round 5 collapse against the Warriors – with their best win of 2023, erasing a halftime deficit to subdue the Roosters 22-12. Nicho Hynes was mesmerising in a physical encounter as the Sharks gradually got on top and came home with a wet sail.
It was a performance reminiscent of their 2022 renaissance and could prove the catalyst for a mid-season tear.
Cronulla has won nine of the last 11 encounters between the clubs. Last season the Sharks ground down the Bulldogs 18-6 at CommBank in Round 16 and 16-0 at home in Round 24. Remarkably, just three of their last 18 clashes have produced more than 38 points.
The 3-3 Sharks will view this as two points they simply must bank to keep up with the NRL’s pace-setters. Hynes’ form and the Sharks’ pace and punch out wide do not bode well for a Bulldogs side haemorrhaging points and struggling to post their own.
Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (-14.5) @ $1.90
SGM: OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / SHARKS OVER 26.5 POINTS / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NICHO HYNES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.64
It’s crunch time for North Queensland, sitting second-last on the ladder with a 2-5 record on a three-match losing streak. Going down to the Dolphins at home 32-22 thanks to a first-half blitz, the Cowboys couldn’t capitalise on a welter of possession in a 22-14 road loss to the gritty Warriors.
It’s just not clicking for Todd Payten’s charges, struggling to execute on attack despite ample opportunities in the past two games and averaging just 17.3 points per game on the season (15th in the NRL).
Compounding matters for the Cowboys, Jason Taumalolo (knee) is set to miss six weeks. Reuben Cotter will start at lock, while Jordan McLean’s return ends the bizarre Jake Granville experiment at prop.
Newcastle continues to overachieve in the face of a tough injury toll, but after upsetting the Warriors 34-24 in Round 6 the Knights fell out of the Top 8 via a desperately unlucky golden point loss to Penrith.
The 3-1-3 Knights were gallant and did enough to beat most teams – but the Panthers are a tough nut to crack. They need to channel the positives of the gut-wrenching 16-15 end result. Lachie Miller’s breakout year garnered another standout display, will winger Greg Marzhew was also big.
The Knights get Kalyn Ponga and Jacob Saifiti back for the first time since Round 2, with Tyson Gamble slipping back to the bench. Brodie Jones is out injured for the Knights.
The Cowboys have won seven of their last 10 against the Knights, who are on a six-match losing streak in Townsville. The Cowboys cruised to a 36-16 home victory in Round 9 last year. But the fortunes of both teams have shifted in the past 12 months.
Despite the Cowboys’ desperate situation and home advantage, Taumalolo is a huge loss and the bolstered Knights arrive in Townsville with enough momentum and confidence to carve out a vital win.
Tip: Back the Knights to Win @ $2.02
SGM: KNIGHTS OVER 18.5 POINTS / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LACHLAN FITZGIBBON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KYLE FELDT ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.42
The only of the six Queensland derbies we’re yet to see in 2023, the Dolphins and Gold Coast Titans square off in a pivotal Suncorp Stadium encounter after both suffered Round 7 losses.
The 4-3 Dolphins were on course for another boilover last Thursday, 14-6 up at halftime against Souths. But as it has at times during their debut campaign, the Dolphins fatigued and leaked points with Kenny Bromwich’s sin-binning sparking a collapse in a 36-14 defeat.
Felise Kaufusi makes a timely return from suspension for the Dolphins with Bromwich slapped with a one-game ban. Jarrod Wallace (concussion) is also back, pushing JJ Collins to 18th man.
Similarly, the 3-3 Titans – valiant winners against the Dragons in Round 6 – fell away in the second half against Brisbane, losing 46-23 after earlier leading 14-6 with a sin-bin also proving crucial.
Taking the positives away, the Titans possess the rare ability to produce points against the run of play and are scoring at almost 23 points per game. Meanwhile, Moeaki Fotuaika was immense against the vaunted Broncos pack.
Jojo Fifita comes back onto the wing for the Titans, pushing Phil Sami to centre and Aaron Schoupp out. Thomas Mikaele makes his club debut off the bench and Kleese Haas also joins the interchange.
The Dolphins’ engine-room additions could be the difference here, while defence remains a major bugbear for the Titans – they have leaked more points per game (26.8) than any side in 2023.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-2.5) @ $1.90
SGM: DOLPHINS BY 1-12 / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / PHILLIP SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.156
The 0-6 Wests Tigers produced arguably their most encouraging performance of a disastrous start to 2023 in Round 6 but couldn’t quite run down Parramatta in a 28-22 Easter Monday loss. The Tigers had the bye last week.
The Tigers’ issues are manifold, scoring the least points per game in the NRL, conceding the second-most and struggling to adapt to a new style – if in fact they have one at all. Their big-name recruits haven’t fired and confidence and cohesion is low across the board.
Adam Doueihi’s shattering knee injury sees Brandon Wakeham return at five-eighth. Meanwhile, Brent Naden’s collarbone absence forces a backline reshuffle, with Jahream Bula to debut at fullback and Charlie Staines returning to the wing.
Manly was at a crossroads last week after being pumped by Penrith, but Anthony Seibold’s side made a huge statement with a gritty, physical 18-8 defeat of in-form Melbourne. DCE and Tom Trbojevic provided the direction and polish to accompany and aggressive engine-room effort.
The Sea Eagles are boosted by the return of five-eighth Josh Schuster and winger Reuben Garrick. Kelma Tuilagi (concussion) is out, while Sean Keppie and debutant Samuela Fainu join the bench.
Manly has won its last four against Wests Tigers by 14-plus margins – including a 36-22 result at 4 Pines Park in Round 9 last year and a 30-4 rout at Campbelltown five weeks later. The Tigers are on a five-match slide at Campbelltown and have won only four of their last 18 at the home venue.
The 3-1-2 Sea Eagles are yet to win away from their northern beaches base, but this match-up provides a gift-wrapped opportunity to change that as the Tigers appear destined to become the first team since 2005 to start a season 0-7.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SEA EAGLES BY 13+ / OVER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CHARLIE STAINES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $36.65
Arguably the most hallowed game on the NRL’s regular-season calendar, the traditional Anzac Day showdown returns to Allianz Stadium for the first time since 2018.
The Roosters have downed the Saints in eight of the clubs’ last nine encounters, but the Dragons snatched a gutsy, Ben Hunt-led 14-12 victory at Anzac Day last year. The Tricolours romped to a 54-26 win in Gosford in Round 18 with James Tedesco and Joey Manu both bagging doubles.
The Saints lead the all-time ledger since the traditional clash was inaugurated in 2002, 12 wins to eight.
This showdown finds both clubs coming off two straight losses. Poor discipline brought the Roosters undone in a 22-12 loss at Cronulla, held scoreless in the second half in a disappointing follow-up from their 28-8 lesson in Melbourne.
Nat Butcher has copped a hip-drop suspension but that gap will be filled by Angus Crichton’s return for his first game of 2023 and Sitili Tupouniua is back from a long layoff. The big news is Sam Walker’s axing, however, with Joey Manu moving to five-eighth and Paul Momirovski coming in at centre.
St George Illawarra has gone down in back-to-back cliff-hangers on the Gold Coast (20-18) and Canberra (20-14). Errors and lack of direction outside of Hunt brought them down in both clashes as pressure mounts on Anthony Grffin.
Ben Murdoch-Masila returns for the Dragons, replacing Jaydn Su’a in their only change.
The Dragons are massive $4.10 outsiders – they’re unlikely to pull off the upset but look good value against a big line with the Roosters in patchy form and the occasion traditionally evening out formline and personnel disparities.
Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+12.5) @ $1.90
SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.97
The Warriors head to Melbourne for the traditional fixture with their best opportunity in some time to win on Anzac Day for the first time in nine years and end a 13-match losing streak against the Storm.
The 5-2 Warriors are arguably stronger than at any stage since their last AAMI Park triumph in 2014, while the 4-3 Storm are quite possibly the most vulnerable they’ve been during the same period.
The Storm’s impressive three-game winning streak was halted by an aggressive Manly, going down 18-8 at Brookvale. They’d been superb in putting away heavyweights Souths (18-10) and the Roosters (28-8) in the previous two rounds but were bustled by the Sea Eagles.
Tui Kamikamica’s suspension is tempered by the early return of Nelson Asofa-Solomona from a knee injury. Nick Meaney also comes back at fullback with Cam Munster returning to the halves.
The Warriors bounced back from an Easter Sunday loss in Newcastle to down the Cowboys 22-14 at home – despite enjoying just 57 percent possession and spending much of the game defending their own line.
They’ll need to tidy up their errors, but Shaun Johnson’s sublime form continued, Dylan Walker made a fine fist of the move to five-eighth – as Marcelo Montoya did to centre – and the Warriors pack epitomised character and steel.
Marata Niukore is back from a two-game ban for the Warriors – bumping Taine Tuaupiki off the bench – while Wayde Egan has been given another week off to recover from concussion.
The Warriors’ 24-12 loss at Mt Smart in Round 20 last year ended a streak of five defeats to the Storm by 22-plus margins while conceding 32-plus points. The Storm powered to an infamous 70-10 win on Anzac Day last year, with Xavier Coates scoring four tries on hapless rookie Ed Kosi.
Everything the Warriors – 6-1 against the line in 2023 – have done this season suggests they are more than capable of snapping their Melbourne hoodoo and the line in their favour is far too big to ignore.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+12.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ED KOSI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.45