An NRL Round 9 schedule brimming with crunch games is headlined by a 2022 finals rematch on Thursday, a top-four Friday night blockbuster and a Sunday clash between two much talked about teams on a five-day turnaround from Anzac Day.
Arguably the most crucial swing games, however, come in the form of the lower-profile, lower-table contests: Eels-Knights, Raiders-Dolphins and Dragons-Bulldogs.
Cronulla lines up at home in Round 9 with a score to settle, having suffered an agonising 32-30 golden point qualifying final loss to North Queensland last September. Jason Taumalolo’s last-minute try sent the game in extra-time, where a Valentine Holmes penalty goal sent the Cowboys to a prelim.
But two months into the 2022 season, the Cowboys are battling to climb out of the bottom four and skipper Taumalolo is sidelined by injury.
The Sharks, meanwhile, have moved to fifth and have a winning record for the first time this season after accounting for the Roosters (22-12) and Bulldogs (33-20) since the bye. William Kennedy’s first-half hat-trick spearheaded the latter victory in Round 8.
The 3-5 Cowboys held on for a crucial 18-16 win over Newcastle on Saturday, arresting a three-match slide. Scott Drinkwater and Reece Robson were standouts, but their loss of attacking verve – scoring the third-least points per game in the NRL – remains an issue.
The Cowboys’ nerve-shredding finals win in 2022 ended an eight-match losing streak against the Sharks, who won 26-12 in Townsville in Round 18. The Sharks have scored 26-plus points in eight of the teams’ last nine clashes.
In a relative rarity, both teams are unchanged. Form-wise Nicho Hynes and the freewheeling Sharks deserve their $1.30 favouritism with the Cowboys winless on the road in 2023.
The Cowboys are also yet to lose by more than 10 points this season, however, and last weekend’s gritty win should provide a platform to start showing the form that lifted them into the top four in 2022.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SHARKS BY 1-12 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.06
A vital encounter as the 12th-placed Newcastle Knights head out on the road after two nail-biting losses to take on the 13th-placed Parramatta Eels.
The Knights have covered the start in five straight games but could come to rue a golden point heart-breaker against Penrith (16-15) and a tight away loss to North Queensland (18-16) in the past fortnight.
Kalyn Ponga made a positive return in Townsville, while Tyson Frizell form in recent weeks has been vintage in a team that turns up every week.
The Eels eased some pressure with back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Bulldogs, but they were outclassed by the ladder-leading Broncos in a 26-16 loss in Darwin. A lack of patience and a reluctance to earn the opportunity to chance their arm on attack were hallmarks of a sloppy performance.
Compounding the loss, Reagan Campbell-Gillard is set for a lengthy stint on the sidelines and Bailey Simonsson (head knock) is out this week. Consequently, Wiremu Greig starts at prop and Haze Dunster returns on the wing.
Parramatta is on a five-match winning streak against Newcastle, carving out a dominant 39-2 win in the Hunter in Round 7 last year. Plenty’s changed for both clubs since, though, and the Eels appear to be $1.42 favourites on reputation.
The Knights look excellent value for a sixth straight cover on the strength of their recent defensive efforts and are a tempting option for a straight-up win. RCG is a big out for the Eels, while the Knights are unchanged.
Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+8) @ $1.90
SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN BROWN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $59.22
The undisputed match of the round with a pair of bona fide premiership contenders in red-hot form squaring off at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.
Brisbane kicked three points clear of the field with a 7-1 record after comfortably accounting for Parramatta 26-16. The exuberant attack of Ezra Mam and the platform laid by Dally M leader Payne Haas were the main catalysts for the Darwin victory.
Adam Reynolds’ direction has also been a vital foil for the young Broncos gunslingers – and his clash with the Rabbitohs is another mouth-watering subplot this week. But he’ll be accompanied in the halves by Jock Madden with Mam out suspended.
The Broncos have also lost Haas and Corey Oates. Keenan Palasia and Jesse Arthars come back into the line-up.
Souths took a giant step forward in Round 8 via a thrilling, fast-finishing 20-18 win over Penrith. Latrell Mitchell was typically irrepressible, while Cody Walker came up clutch in the big moments.
Tevita Tatola is a big in this week, bumping Daniel Suluka-Fifita out of the 17.
After losing five of the teams’ previous six matches, the Broncos notched a pair of memorable upsets of Souths in 2022: an 11-4 result in Round 1 despite marquee recruit Reynolds’ absence and a 32-12 beatdown in Sydney in Round 9 with the veteran halfback toying with his former team.
The Broncos have drifted to $2.02 here with Haas and Mam key absentees, while this is their first clash with a team currently sitting higher than eighth since the rolled the Panthers in Round 1. The Rabbitohs are buoyant after finally claiming a big scalp in 2023 but this seems destined to go down to the wire in Brisbane.
Both teams are conceding just 16.5 points per game – equal-second in the NRL – and the under shapes as an attractive play.
Tip: Back Under 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY 6.5 POINTS OR LESS / 31-40 TOTAL POINTS / ALEX JOHNSTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $56.32
The Dolphins take on a team for the second time, for the first time in their short history. They claimed a memorable 20-14 upset win over Canberra Raiders in the Redcliffe wet in Round 2 via a late Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow try.
The 5-3 newcomers’ debut season hit another high point in Round 8, producing a premiership-record-equalling comeback to edge Gold Coast 28-26.
The shaky defence through the middle that allowed the Titans to get out to a 26-0 lead needs shoring up, but rookie half Isaiya Katoa came off age in a match-winning performance and the historic result was testament again to the Dolphins’ character. Kenny Bromwich returns from suspension this week.
The Raiders have recovered from a 1-4 start with consecutive 20-14 wins over the Broncos and Dragons before enjoying the Round 8 bye. The latter victory was perhaps harder than it needed to be, getting up on the back of a Hudson Young runaway try and surviving some late brain explosions.
Jordan Rapana returns in time to replace injured winger Nick Cotric, while Xavier Savage is tantalisingly named in the reserves. All the focus, though, is on marquee man Jack Wighton’s reported signing with Souths from 2024 – how much of a disruption that becomes remains to be seen.
This one’s in Wagga Wagga: the Raiders are just 1-3 on the road in 2023, while the Dolphins have a 1-1 interstate record.
Teams coming off the bye are 5-2 so far in 2023 (6-1 ATS) and the Raiders look about right as 4.5-point favourites. A huge juncture in both teams’ season in the context of the finals.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.85
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / UNDER 43.5 POINTS / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS @ $32.89
High-flying Manly host a Gold Coast outfit hoping to put a historic defeat behind them.
The Sea Eagles have quietly made their way to outright second on the ladder, despite being yet to show anything like consistency in 2023. The difference in quality of performance between their tough 18-8 win over the Storm and a late 22-16 escape against the Tigers in the past fortnight was palpable.
Worryingly, Tom Trbojevic failed to see out the match; he’s been named but will need to pass a fitness test. Christian Tuipolotu returns on the wing with Reuben Garrick moving to centre to replace the injured Brad Parker, while five-eighth Josh Schuster is sidelined again with Cooper Johns coming in.
The 3-4 Titans blew a 26-0 lead against the Dolphins in an extraordinary second-half capitulation, losing 28-26 as their NRL-worst defensive record came home to roost once more.
Clinging to the positives, Moe Fotuaika was a beast in the middle and AJ Brimson’s late injection at fullback sparked an impressive first-half explosion of points. Klese Haas and Joe Vuna have been recalled on the bench for Kruise Leeming and Thomas Mikaele this week.
The Titans have won five of their last nine against the Sea Eagles. Honours were shared in 2022 – Manly prevailed 26-18 at home in Round 6 but was subjected to a 44-22 thrashing on the Gold Coast amid a late-season collapse.
Manly’s backline injuries are a potential disruption that could open the door for a Gold Coast upset. But the Sea Eagles are 3-0 overall and ATS at 4 Pines Park in 2023 and Daly Cherry-Evans should get one over former halves partner Kieran Foran by steering his side home here.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / OVER 46.5 POINTS / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JASON SAAB TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $26.36
The defending premiers and reigning wooden spooners – runaway favourites to reprise those NRL roles in 2023 – square off in one of the biggest betting mismatches of the season to date.
The Panthers are $1.10 favourites giving away an 18.5-point start. They won’t be perturbed by their last-gasp 20-18 loss to Souths on Friday but will be eager to bounce back hard. Centre Izack Tago is a key loss, with Tyrone Peachey his replacement in the backline.
Wests Tigers sunk to an 0-7 record with another spirited – yet ultimately frustrating – 22-16 loss to Manly at Campbelltown. The effort is there but confidence, attacking execution and cohesion is woefully lacking.
The NRL’s worst attacking record (15.1 points per game) and second-worst defence (26 points per game) tells part of the story, though they have only suffered one 13+ loss. David Nofoaluma and Brent Naden return out wide at the expense of Charlie Staines and Asu Kepoa.
Penrith has won nine of its last 11 against Wests Tigers. The joint venture has been reasonably competitive with the Panthers during their dominant 2020-22 period, however: the Tigers have lost two of five games by seven or less and chalked up a 26-6 win over an Origin-depleted side in 2021.
Five of Penrith’s seven games in 2023 have been decided by just six points or less. But when they’ve had the opportunity to take on a team short on form, the champs have put them to the sword – beating the Raiders 53-12 in Round 5 and the Sea Eagles 44-12 in Round 6.
Expect the Panthers to shake off the attacking shackles again in Bathurst, where they have racked up 66 points in their last two matches.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Score Over 29.5 Points @ $1.78
SGM: PANTHERS -18.5 / SUNIA TURUVA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ZAC HOSKING ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.83
A tough five-day turnaround from gruelling Anzac Day showdowns for both teams with the shorthanded Warriors hosting Sydney Roosters.
Despite a 30-22 loss to Melbourne, the Warriors again displayed their growth and resilience under Andrew Webster in a high-quality game – only put away in the dying minutes as an empty bench and some dubious calls finally bringing them undone.
Shaun Johnson was again magnificent and Addin Fonua-Blake was close to the best player on the field. But the upshot is the 5-3 Warriors will be without key trio Tohu Harris, Jazz Tevaga and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad through injury, and most likely Dylan Walker due to suspension.
Rookie fullback Taine Tuaupiki, the returning Wayde Egan and Viliame Vailea are the new faces, while Ronald Volkman shapes as the likely replacement for Walker.
The ninth-placed Roosters badly needed a bounce-back from back-to-back losses to the Storm and Sharks – and they nearly bottled it after throwing away a 14-point lead against the Dragons. But the heavyweights held their nerve down the stretch and Luke Keary kicked them to a nervy 27-26 win.
Anything like an 80-minute performance has proved elusive for the Tricolours in 2023. Nat Butcher returns this week for Naufahu Whyte, while Corey Allan comes onto the flank for the injured Daniel Tupou.
The Roosters are on a six-match winning streak against the Warriors, a streak that started with their last game in New Zealand back in 2018. The Warriors have won seven of their last 11 against the Tricolours on home soil.
The Warriors are $2.60 outsiders at home, with their absentees making a huge dent in their ability to match the Roosters in the yardage battle.
But this gutsy Auckland-based outfit is 7-1 against the line, while the Roosters are 5-2 – and that’s where the value lies in backs-to-the-wall showdown in front of a big Mt Smart Stadium crowd.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+6) @ $1.90
SGM: ROOSTERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 43.5 POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / COREY ALLAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $38.32
Absolute crunch time for two clubs on three-match losing streaks.
St George Illawarra Dragons were arguably moral victors in a 27-26 loss to Sydney Roosters on Anzac Day, fighting back from 14 points down to level the scores on the back of an electric attacking display from fullback Tyrell Sloan.
But the spirited display didn’t stop the Saints from slipped to 14th on the ladder, while a 2-5 record continues to pile the pressure on coach Anthony Griffin. In-form wing veteran Tautau Moga is out with a shoulder problem, with Max Feagai named to replace him.
Meanwhile, three straight 13+ defeats have consigned 3-5 Canterbury Bulldogs to second-last on the ladder. Injuries have ravaged the Bulldogs and they haven’t coped with their lack of depth laid bare; Cameron Ciraldo’s side ranks second-worst for both points scored and points conceded per game.
There was a bit more attacking spark in a 33-20 loss to Cronulla on Saturday but the Bulldogs were never in it. After being switched to five-eighth last week, maligned half Kyle Flanagan is out of the 17 altogether this week with Josh Reynolds to partner Matt Burton.
The Saints have won five of their last seven against the Bulldogs, including a 34-24 result in Round 12 last year. The clubs have only met in Wollongong once in the past decade, in 2020 when the Dragons claimed a dramatic last-gasp 28-22 victory.
Form-wise, there’s more to like about what the Dragons have produced in three narrow losses to the Titans, Raiders and Roosters. They are on a short turnaround, but the Bulldogs’ penchant for haemorrhaging points of late is a big hurdle to overcome.
Tip: Back the Dragons to Win @ $1.73
SGM: DRAGONS -2.5 / DRAGONS OVER 20.5 POINTS / TYRELL SLOAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.36