The spectre of State of Origin is starting to loom over the NRL premiership, with Round 12 offering one final opportunity for contenders to push for rep selection and teams to pick up crucial competition points ahead of a disruptive period.
A key injury has taken the gloss off a Thursday night blockbuster, while an Anzac Day rematch on Friday sees the combatants in varying states of disarray. The Dolphins host the Storm in Saturday’s headliner before Canberra and Manly lock horns in a pivotal Sunday clash.
Brisbane’s gutsy 13-12 upset of Penrith on the road in Round 1 and the Broncos’ ladder-leading form since meant this was always going to be a hotly anticipated return clash.
But Adam Reynolds’ concussion absence has taken the sting out of this heavyweight showdown somewhat. The Broncos surrendered top spot with a controversial 24-16 defeat – their second in three games – in Melbourne last Thursday.
Jock Madden will deputise in the No.7 in the Broncos’ only change.
After a rocky month with patchy, low-scoring wins over Newcastle and the Warriors bookending back-to-back losses to Souths and the Tigers, the Panthers exploded with a dominant 48-4 thrashing of the Roosters last Friday.
The two-time champs were back to their best, with Jarome Luai, Scott Sorensen and Tyrone Peachey among the star performers in a blistering display on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos have lost their last three against the Panthers at Suncorp Stadium and the Panthers are on a seven-match winning streak at the venue against all opponents. Meanwhile, five of the clubs’ last six clashes at all venues produced 37 points or less.
Their season-opening boilover aside, the high-flying Broncos have not claimed another big scalp. Reynolds’ injury makes their task monumentally more difficult, despite the firepower and forward grunt in their ranks.
The third-placed Panthers are conceding just 12.1 points per game and with their offence finally clicking again last week, it’s shaping as a tough night out for the hosts.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $1.98
SGM: PANTHERS/PANTHERS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $49.41
Four weeks is a long time in rugby league and the fortunes of these clubs have nosedived since Luke Keary’s field goal staved off a stirring St George Illawarra comeback on Anzac Day, Sydney Roosters prevailing 27-26.
After a dismal 42-22 loss to North Queensland extended the Dragons’ losing streak to six matches, the joint venture stopped delaying the inevitable and punted coach Anthony Griffin – albeit handling it atrociously. Assistant Ryan Carr will take the reins as interim coach.
Carr has immediately recalled contentiously dropped duo Zac Lomax and Jacob Liddle, while Ben Hunt returns to halfback and Jayden Sullivan to the bench. Moses Mbye drops out.
The Roosters beat the Warriors 14-0 on a five-day turnaround from Anzac Day, but since then the heavyweights have crashed to awful defeats to the Cowboys (20-6) in Magic Round and Panthers (48-4).
A harsh media spotlight is shining on the Roosters – and underperforming stars Brandon Smith and Joseph Suaalii, in particular – while James Tedesco is struggling to find his best and Joey Manu suffered an ankle injury at Penrith.
With Sam Walker unavailable, Drew Hutchison comes into the halves for Manu. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has been named despite exiting with a pec injury last week, while Egan Butcher is back from concussion.
The Roosters have won nine of their last 10 against the Saints, with their last four wins in the rivalry producing match totals of 44-plus points.
The sacked-coach factor often provides a galvanising effect and I’d expect an improved, emotion-charged showing from the Dragons, who have covered eight of their last 10 at Kogarah. With the Roosters travelling so poorly – and scoring just 15.7 points per game – this should be a tight and tense affair.
Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 6.5 POINTS / OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAXSON PAULO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.49
South Sydney has assumed top spot on the NRL ladder and is nudging Penrith for premiership favouritism courtesy of six straight wins. Back-to-back losses have pushed 14th-placed Parramatta further towards finals oblivion.
Since running down the Panthers in Round 8, the Rabbitohs have carved out wins over the Broncos, Storm and Tigers by 16-plus points. Campbell Graham and Latrell Mitchell starred in a dour, but defensively satisfying, 20-0 shutout of the Tigers last Saturday.
Late Round 11 withdrawal Tom Burgess and his replacement, Jed Cartwright, are both out. Daniel Suluka-Fifita is the new face on the Rabbitohs’ bench.
Following a pressure-relieving 43-12 win over Newcastle in Round 9, the Eels have slumped to a 4-7 record with defeats to the Titans (26-24) in Magic Round and the Raiders (26-18) in Canberra.
Mitch Moses’ concussion absence was keenly felt in the latter, but conceding 22 points a game and Regan Campbell-Gillard sitting on the sidelines are hurting the 2022 grand finalists’ bid to build some consistency.
Moses is back on deck, but Shaun Lane is out for several weeks with a hamstring complaint. Makahesi Makatoa comes onto the bench and Sean Russell replaces Haze Dunster on the wing.
Souths have developed into a bogey for Parramatta, winning the teams’ last six encounters. Last year the Rabbitohs cruised to wins by 30-12 at Accor Stadium and 26-0 at CommBank, with Alex Johnston bagging doubles in both.
The lack of consistent creativity and punch from the Eels’ spine is a real problem for a line-up that is otherwise weaker across the board than 2022. The Rabbitohs look unstoppable at present and should continue their recent dominance of this rivalry.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Win by 13+ @ $2.30
SGM: RABBITOHS -9.5 / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CAMPBELL GRAHAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL PENISINI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.52
Fourth-placed Cronulla is a warm $1.32 favourite to put away a Newcastle side coming off its biggest win of 2023, achieved courtesy of a major form turnaround from a maligned marquee man.
Shocked 36-16 by the Dolphins in Magic Round, the Sharks responded with a 20-14 victory at Manly spearheaded by Nicho Hynes and Briton Nikora. It was, however, disappointing they were forced into a nervy finish after leading 20-2 at the hour mark.
The Sharks are again without Siosifa Talakai, while Oregon Kaufusi returns in time to replace Cameron McInnes, who suffered a broken hand on Sunday.
The Knights had been gritty all season in the face of a heavy injury toll – until a limp 43-12 loss at Parramatta in Round 9 that was highlighted by a turnstile defensive performance from the recently returned Kalyn Ponga.
But following the Magic Round bye, Ponga ignited in last Sunday’s home clash with the Titans, producing three beautiful try-assists and then a sizzling 60-metre solo try as the Knights turned an 18-12 deficit into a runaway 46-26 win.
Bradman Best and Dom Young scored two tries apiece for the Knights, who jumped to 11th with a 4-1-5 record.
Cronulla has won 10 of its last 14 against Newcastle overall – breaking a four-match losing streak with wins at home (18-0) and away (38-16) in 2022. The Sharks have taken games to Coffs Harbour for the past two seasons, beating Gold Coast 38-10 and 18-10.
It’s a vital clash for both teams ahead of a tricky Origin period that will likely see Hynes and Ponga unavailable for some games. Eager to further prove the Dolphins loss was an aberration, the Sharks should get the result – but a 9.5-point start is a bit generous.
Tip: Back Sharks/Sharks in the Half-time/Full-time Double @ $1.67
SGM: SHARKS BY 1-12 / KNIGHTS OVER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NICHO HYNES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.26
Wests Tigers’ resurgence met a predictable roadblock last weekend, but they’ll be determined to turn around a lean trot at Leichhardt Oval against a North Queensland side that has put its campaign back on the rails in the past fortnight.
The Tigers toppled Penrith and St George Illawarra back-to-back, before getting overrun late in a 20-0 loss to red-hot Souths. Their pluck and commitment can’t be question, though: despite sitting last, the Tigers have a better defensive record than six other clubs.
The floundering Cowboys have recovered from a 3-6 start with an upset of the Roosters (20-6) in Magic Round and a rampant home win over the embattled Dragons (42-22).
Having failed to clear 24 points in their first 10 games, the Cowboys’ attacking fluency finally returned, with Scott Drinkwater, Chad Townsend, Valentine Holmes and Heilum Luki the standouts.
The Cowboys have lost Jamayne Taunoa-Brown to a head knock this week, with Riley Price coming onto the bench.
After losing five of the teams’ previous six clashes, the Cowboys beat the Tigers twice in 2022: 36-12 in Magic Round and 27-26 in a wildly controversial finish in Townsville.
The Tigers have won just three of their last 12 at Leichhardt, going down in their last four at the hallowed venue. They have, however, won eight of their last nine against the Cowboys at the ground.
Recent form and personnel-wise, it’s hard to go past the rejuvenated Cowboys as only a narrow favourite – the Tigers just don’t have enough points in them, scoring an NRL-low 13.6 per game.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win and Under 43.5 Total Points @ $3.05
SGM: COWBOYS -3.5 / TIGERS UNDER 18.5 TOTAL POINTS / KYLE FELDT TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.87
The Dolphins had the bye to bask in a spectacular Magic Round performance, but it’s back to business in Round 12 with another massive Suncorp Stadium assignment against Melbourne.
Inspired by halves Kodi Nikorima and Isaiya Katoa, and a blockbusting two-try debut from big centre Valynce Te Whare, the Dolphins knocked over Cronulla 36-16 in Round 10 – leading 30-0 in even time before coasting to a crucial two points few expected them to get.
Te Whare drops to the reserves for the sixth-placed Dolphins with Brenko Lee fit, however, while Jesse Bromwich also returns from a hamstring injury at Poasa Faamausili’s expense. Ray Stone is back on the bench and Mark Nicholls is 18th man.
The 6-4 Storm looked flat coming off the bye in a 28-12 Magic Round loss to Souths, but they made a solid statement with a 24-16 home defeat of then-ladder leader Brisbane.
Trump cards Harry Grant and Cam Munster stood tall in the heavyweight showdown, while rugby union convert Will Warbrick scored a superb double on the wing.
After conceding more than 30 points per game in their previous five outings, the Dolphins’ defensive display against the Sharks was the blueprint they’ll look to follow moving forward.
They are 8-2 against the line and are getting a handy start (though it’s hard to go past the Storm head-to-head) but the over may be the better play with the Dolpins’ last six games producing 50-plus points.
Tip: Back Over 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: DOLPHINS +6.5 / STORM OVER 23.5 POINTS / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TESI NIU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.46
Convincing Round 11 losers Canterbury and Gold Coast will have both pinpointed this Sunday afternoon encounter as a must-win.
The 15th-placed Bulldogs have lost five of their last six games and were flattered by the finals scoreline in their defeats to Canberra (34-30) and the Warriors (24-12) in the past fortnight.
Defensively they improved slightly last week – three of the Warriors’ four tries came from kicks – but they were never in the hunt and have a big hole at fullback. Cameron Ciraldo’s rebuilding team looks every bit the bottom-half also-ran.
Josh Addo-Carr is named on the wing again after his return from injury was aborted last week. Teenage half Karl Oloapu will start for the first time with Josh Reynolds going to the bench. Sam Huhges replaces Franklin Pele on the interchange.
The Titans flew under the radar into the Top 8 with back-to-back wins over Manly (26-10) and Parramatta (26-24).
They were on track for their third straight win when they led 18-12 in Newcastle but conceded five unanswered tries and went down 46-26 as their trademark defensive frailties came home to roost. On a positive note, David Fifita was a two-try behemoth.
The Titans’ only change this week sees Erin Clark replace Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui on the bench.
The Bulldogs snapped a three-match losing streak against the Titans with a 36-26 victory at CommBank Stadium in their only 2022 clash. Only two of their last 10 encounters produced less than 40 points.
Both sides have genuine class in the halves and firepower out wide. It should be won up front – and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Moe Fotuaika and Fifita provide the visitors with a key advantage straight out of the gate.
Tip: Back the Titans to Win @ $1.75
SGM: TITANS BY 1-12 / OVER 46.5 POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JAKE AVERILLO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $77.95
Canberra has stormed into the Top 8 thanks to five straight wins – though none of them overly convincing – while Manly has trended in the opposite direction and has slumped to 12th with three straight defeats.
The Raiders’ winning streak has exclusively featured margins of eight points or less. After nervy wins over the Dolphins (31-30) in golden point and the Bulldogs (34-30), they held off the Eels 26-18 at home in another nail-biter.
Blues hopeful Hudson Young was outstanding again, while Jamal Fogarty looks more comfortable in his role after a slow start to the year and Matt Timoko is developing into one of the NRL’s most dangerous centres.
Danny Levi makes a timely return for Canberra with Zac Woolford out due to concussion.
Following dismal losses to the Titans (26-10) and Broncos (32-6), the Sea Eagles at least showed some fight to claw back from 18 points down in a 20-14 loss to the Sharks last Sunday.
Jake Trbojevic’s early return from a calf injury is a huge boost for Manly (and NSW), while under-fire Josh Schuster comes in at five-eighth. The Sea Eagles have lost Josh Aloiai and Kelma Tuilagi, replaced by Samuela Fainu and Ben Condon in the 17 with Ben Trbojevic to start in the second-row.
Tom Trbojevic’s form and fitness remains a huge concern, with Daly Cherry-Evans in desperate need of some game-breaking help.
Manly has won eight of its last 11 against Canberra, including two of the last four clashes in the capital. Honours were shared last season: the Sea Eagles prevailed 25-6 in Mudgee, but the Raiders responded with a 48-6 drubbing at home in the penultimate round.
The Sea Eagles’ big ins and the Raiders’ inability to put together an 80-minute performance give the visitors a hope here. But the Green Machine has all the momentum and boast a solid home record in 2023 – expect them to find a way to the two points once again.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win 1-12 @ $2.85
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / RAIDERS -2.5 1ST HALF HANDICAP / MATT TIMOKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU @ $58.75