Rarely has an NRL preliminary final weekend featured a pair of bigger outsiders, with Melbourne Storm and New Zealand Warriors installed as massive underdogs to topple Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos, respectively, on the road.
But with the stakes so high and unfancied teams with nothing to lose squaring off against big guns navigating the pressure of expectation, prelims have produced many memorable upsets.
Here’s the biggest boilovers from the penultimate week of the season during the eight-team finals era.
Beleaguered Bulldogs trounce champs (1995)
Minor premiers for the previous two seasons and beaten grand finalists in 1994, the Bulldogs were torn asunder by the Super League war in ’95 and won seven of their last nine regular-season games just to scrape into sixth spot in the inaugural eight-team finals.
But after a tense 12-8 win over St George and a stunning 24-10 upset of Brisbane, Chris Anderson’s charges’ incredible run to the unlikeliest of premiership triumphs left defending champion Canberra in its wake in the preliminary final.
The Raiders, who thrashed the Bulldogs in the previous year’s decider, had only lost two games all year. But a team featuring four future NRL Hall of Famers was overrun 25-6 with the Bulldogs’ mid-season fullback buy Rod Silva, 34-year-old skipper Terry Lamb and ex-All Black John Timu starring.
Can’t Bear it (1996)
North Sydney appeared to have one hand on its first grand final berth since 1943 after beating Brisbane in week one of the finals and sitting back for a prelim date with seventh-placed bolter St George.
The Dragons lost several players and their coach due to the Super League war but replicated the Bulldogs’ ’95 heroics, losing just one of their last 12 regular-season games and subsequently bundled the Raiders and Roosters out of the finals.
But the Bears were heavy favourites to snare a spot in the decider and led 7-6 at halftime.
The second stanza was a Red V tidal wave, however, with the mercurial Anthony Mundine, hooker Nathan Brown and unlikely cult hero winger Mark Bell leading the Saints to a 29-12 triumph.
The agonising collapse was one of four preliminary final losses for North Sydney during the 1990s before the club’s ill-fated merger with bitter rival Manly.
Bulldogs back from the dead (1998)
Channelling the club’s 1995 breed, the Bulldogs embarked on another incredible finals charge after finishing ninth in the inaugural NRL season’s 10-team finals series.
They sent the Dragons and Bears packing, before coming from 16 points down to beat the Knights in extra-time.
Canterbury’s predicament was even more dire the following Sunday against hot favourite Parramatta – 18-2 behind with 11 minutes to go – before staging arguably the greatest finals comeback of all time.
The Bulldogs famously scored three tries, two of them sensationally converted from the sideline by Daryl Halligan, to force the match into extra-time – but only after halfback Craig Polla-Mounter’s field goal attempt from halfway on the buzzer fell just under the crossbar.
Polla-Mounter, who kick-started the revival with the Bulldogs’ belated first try, dominated the added 20 minutes with another try and a pair of field goals as they steamrolled the shellshocked Eels 32-20.
Storm rally as Eels crumble again (1999)
In just the club’s second season, Melbourne recovered from a qualifying final thrashing at the hands of St George Illawarra to run down Canterbury and book a preliminary final showdown against second-placed Parramatta.
The Storm displayed grit and poise and poise in equal measure after trailing the Eels 16-6 at halftime, clawing their way back with tries to Aaron Moule and Richard Swain from Brett Kimmorley kicks.
They clung to an 18-16 lead for the final 16 minutes to complete the boilover.
The following day, the sixth-placed Saints rolled minor premiers the Sharks 24-8, coming back from 8-0 down at halftime on the back of a Mundine masterclass.
The Storm famously overhauled a 14-0 halftime deficit in a rematch with the Dragons in the decider, winning the premiership 20-18 after a late penalty try.
Tigers, Cowboys set up unlikely decider (2005)
A top-two grand final between minor premiers Parramatta and title favourite St George Illawarra seemed a formality ahead of preliminary final weekend.
First-time finalists Wests Tigers had electrified the NRL with Benji Marhsall, Scott Prince and Brett Hodgson leading their thrilling charge, but the Dragons were expected to be too strong.
Marshall needed just three minutes to put his stamp in the match with a solo try, however, before unheralded centre Dene Halatau completed a double either side of a Chris Heighington try in an epic 20-12 upset for the fourth-placed juggernaut.
The following day’s encounter at Stadium Australia was even more extraordinary. The fifth-placed Cowboys, who had been obliterated 50-6 by the Tigers in week one, qualified for their first grand final with a 29-0 rout of the hapless Eels.
The Cowboys scored three tries in the last 16 minutes of the first half and the rattled Eels never looked like clawing their way back into the contest.
The prelim result set up the only grand final in premiership history not to feature one of the top three regular-season finishers.
Eels juggernaut rolls on (2009)
Parramatta’s iconic run to the 2009 grand final – after languishing in 14th at the end of Round 18 then rallying into eighth – featured many memorable moments, but none more so than the preliminary final victory over the Bulldogs in front of 74,549 fans, a finals record for a non-grand final match.
The second-placed Bulldogs were on track to end the blue-and-gold fairytale when they led 12-6 at halftime, but two months of virtual sudden-death football held the Eels in good stead during a torrid second stanza.
The Jarryd Hayne-inspired Eels scored three tries to none in the second half: Luke Burt’s 100th NRL try and Tim Mannah’s first presented the Eels with their first lead, and a sizzling team try finished off by rookie half Daniel Mortimer cemented a grand final berth.
Warriors’ greatest-ever performance thwarts Storm (2011)
Despite a pulsating semi-final revival against the Tigers a week earlier, the Warriors were given little hope of knocking over minor premier Melbourne in an AAMI Park prelim.
The Storm were striving for redemption after the harrowing ordeal of their salary cap scandal the previous season.
The $2.97 outsiders bounced back from conceding an early Sika Manu try and grafted out a 14-12 halftime lead, where the scoreboard remained for the first 36 minutes of an absorbing, high-quality second stanza as the Warriors produced rare composure and defensive resolve.
Rookie half Shaun Johnson set off on a spellbinding cross-field run before off-loading for Lewis Brown to score, before Maloney landed a towering sideline conversion to seal the Warriors’ grand final berth 20-12 at the end of arguably the most complete and controlled performance in the club’s history.
Magic Manly stun Souths (2013)
Souths were seemingly on course to end a 42-year grand final drought after beating defending premier Melbourne in their qualifying final and building a 14-0 preliminary final lead over $2.85 underdog Manly inside 12 minutes.
The Sea Eagles regrouped, though, and took their first lead through Jamie Lyon in the 58th minute. Winger David ‘Wolfman’ Williams’ unbelievable touchdown soon afterwards broke the Rabbitohs’ resolve and Manly advanced to their fourth grand final in seven years 30-20.
Cowboys lasso another heavyweight (2017)
Written off following Johnathan Thurston’s season-ending injury, the Cowboys limped into eighth spot with five losses in their last six games.
But with Michael Morgan and Jason Taumalolo in untouchable form, the Cowboys eliminated defending champs the Sharks in extra-time and rolled the fourth-placed Eels.
The Cowboys were $3.23 outsiders to defeat second-placed Sydney Roosters in the prelims. But a solo effort from Te Maire Martin gave them an early 8-0 lead, while Kyle Fedlt’s brilliant try with 14 minutes left put them back in front, before a Morgan field goal and a Scott Bolton try clinched a 29-16 upset.
Gutsy Panthers outlast Storm (2021)
Given what they’ve achieved since, it’s easy to forget the Panthers’ path to back-to-back premiership glory encompassed a preliminary final victory in 2021 as a $3.60 underdog.
Minor premier Melbourne had the psychological edge of beating Penrith in the previous year’s grand final, while the Panthers had taken the long route to the prelim after going down to Souths in week one and surviving a gripping semi against Parramatta.
But a fast start to both halves – scoring inside three minutes on each occasion – and a monumental defensive display, with the Storm thwarted time and again, underpinned a valiant 10-6 triumph.
Eels rally in Townsville (2022)
Parramatta, aiming for its first grand final appearance in 13 years, headed to Townsville for a preliminary final in 2022 as a $2.25 outsider – and North Queensland was seemingly in control at 20-12 in front after dominating the first 15 minutes of the second half.
But a powerhouse try to unlikely game-breaker Reagan Campbell-Gillard and a miraculous pass from Shaun Lane to put Maika Sivo over flipped the match on its head.
The Eels held on grimly for the last 15 minutes to close out a stirring win.