The whips are well and truly cracking on the home straight towards the NRL finals and Round 21 saw the top three premiership contenders carve out wins, while another couple of teams consolidated their Top 8 positions.
The Sharks’ and Dolphins’ chances of remaining in the finals positions are looking shakier by the week, however, as the Raiders, Warriors and Titans kept the dream alive with handy victories.
Top 8 taking shape
The NRL table is slowly starting to split into two distinct groups – the top-four contenders and the teams battling for the last couple of Top 8 spots.
Melbourne and Penrith are home and hosed as the top-two finishers, carving out comfortable wins in Round 21.
The Storm’s 32-14 defeat of Parramatta featured Cam Munster’s successful return from injury, while Nathan Cleary put on another masterclass in his second game back with a hat-trick as the Panthers pumped St George Illawarra 46-10.
The James Tedesco-inspired Sydney Roosters staked their claim for third spot by racing out to a 22-0 lead and holding off a gutsy, fast-finishing Manly – who were aided by three intercept tries in the second half – 34-30.
Canterbury and North Queensland were the big winners, moving up to fifth and sixth, respectively, via crucial Saturday victories over Brisbane (41-16) and Cronulla (30-22).
The Warriors muddled their way to a 28-16 win over Wests Tigers to keep their flame flickering, while Gold Coast kept its faint hopes afloat and simultaneously dealt the Dolphins a crushing blow in a 21-14 upset.
Canberra gave its Top 8 chances a big boost with a 32-12 defeat of Souths, who are now hanging by a thread and have lost Alex Johnston for the year to an Achilles injury.
Midtable desperados the Dolphins (Roosters at home), Dragons (Storm away), Knights (Panthers away) and Raiders (Bulldogs away) all face tough Round 22 assignments – which gives the Warriors (Eels at home) and the winner of a huge Titans-Broncos derby a gilt-edged opportunity to close the gap.
The Panthers are $2.75 premiership favourites with the Roosters and Storm both at $4, before a big gap to the Sea Eagles, Bulldogs and Sharks (all $17).
Bulldogs come of age
Canterbury has built its climb to credibility in 2024 on a renewed defensive resolve, but the Bulldogs’ biggest statement to date – a stunning 41-16 road win over a desperate Brisbane outfit – featured some of the season’s most scintillating attack.
Despite the absence of skipper and strike centre Stephen Crichton, the Bulldogs blazed out to 16-0, regrouped after a Broncos rally late in the first half and piled on four unanswered tries in the second stanza.
The Bulldogs were under pressure coming into the clash, having scored no more than 18 points in the previous four games and going down to North Queensland in Round 20, leaving them with a 1-8 away record.
Those worrying metrics were laid to waste in a brilliant Suncorp Stadium exhibition.
Fullback Connor Tracey – who produced three tries, three line-break assists and 185 metres – and halfback Toby Sexton illustrated the difference between the Bulldogs’ current ceiling and what the team was capable of with utilities Blake Taafe and Drew Hutchison in the spine.
Meanwhile, centre/winger Jacob Kiraz continues to prove one of the NRL’s more underrated players, winger Jeral Skelton ran for over 300 metres in his third game of the season, and early-season omissions Bronson Xerri and Blake Wilson were outstanding again on the left edge.
The Bulldogs have emerged as the team most likely to bump wobbling Cronulla out of the top four with their next four games against rivals currently sitting eighth or lower on the table.
The shellshocked Broncos, on the other hand, now face the prospect of having to win each of their last five games (they also have a bye) just to have a chance at featuring the playoffs.
Phins down
The Dolphins simply had to win against Gold Coast at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday – and a dominant 14-0 start put them well on track.
Subsequently conceding the last 21 points of the match has left the sophomore club teetering on the brink, despite still clinging to a place in the Top 8.
The 15th-placed Titans were begging to be put away, but a Des Hasler spray at halftime, and a glut of second-half possession and vastly improved completions, paved the way for an upset for the $2.60 outsiders.
The Dolphins have now lost the second half in each of their last eight games, of which they’ve won just two. Last season Wayne Bennett’s side spiralled out of contention with 10 losses from their last 12 games – and a similar fate looks set to befall them in 2024.
Despite sitting on the eighth line of title betting at $41, it’s hard to see where the Dolphins’ minimum required four wins come from in the remaining six-match gauntlet against the Roosters, Warriors, Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos and Knights – with the last four of those on the road.
Tough education for Saints
Whatever happens from here on out, St George Illawarra’s first campaign under Shane Flanagan’s coaching has represented a massive turnaround – and the finals are not out of the question given the Dragons remain in a tie for eighth spot.
Red V supporters have witnessed some memorable and emphatic wins, but Sunday’s 46-10 Wollongong beatdown at the hands of Penrith continued an unflattering 2024 trend: when the Dragons lose, they lose big.
Only once has St George Illawarra lost by less than 16 points, a 20-10 derby defeat to Cronulla in Round 9. The NRL’s better teams have routinely put big scores on the rebuilding side, evidenced by their 14th-ranked defence.
The next fortnight against Melbourne and Canterbury is likely to put paid to the Saints’ finals bid before they can sink their teeth into a more palatable month of matches against Gold Coast, Cronulla, Parramatta and Canberra.
Raiders back in the frame
After four straight losses – and four consecutive dismal losses at GIO Stadium – Canberra has put its finals quest back on the rails in a fruitful fortnight at home with Jamal Fogarty back in the No.7 hotseat.
The Raiders followed up a shaky 20-18 win over the Warriors with an authoritative 32-12 defeat of Souths, getting off to another fast 18-0 start. The classy Fogarty underlined his value in a young spine once again, while Hudson Young had another blinder in the pack.
Being held tryless for the last 35 minutes by the Rabbitohs – after mustering just one try from a kick in the last 70 minutes against the Warriors – would be a minor disappointment for Ricky Stuart. But wins by any means is the priority right now for the Green Machine.
The Raiders are eyeing off one of the NRL’s toughest runs home – Canterbury (A), Manly (H), North Queensland (A), Penrith (H), Sydney Roosters (A) and St George Illawarra (A) – but the club has won at least five of their last six games to grab a seemingly out-of-reach finals berth three times under Stuart.