Another furious weekend in the race for the NRL finals with every team placed eighth to 14th changing positions on the ladder.
Three big underdogs grabbed wins and another three covered the line in Round 22. The first four games powered past the total points line – with two producing 74-plus – before the defences tightened and the four remaining fixtures went well under with totals of 40 or less.
Here’s the lay of the NRL land with five weeks of the regular season remaining.
The downward spiral
While every other team with their season on the line played like it – either in the form of stunning upsets or honourable losses – the Warriors and Brisbane Broncos served up performances that made it hard to believe they were contesting a preliminary final 10 months ago.
The desperate duo wilted in the face of spirited resistance from massive outsiders, leaving their finals hopes in absolute tatters.
The Warriors hosted a Parramatta team on a six-match losing streak that hadn’t won away from CommBank Stadium in 2024 and had scored more than 28 points just once this season.
The revitalised Eels led 30-4 after 63 minutes – aided by one of the most passive displays imaginable from the home side. Three late tries made it 30-20 but did nothing to appease the exasperated fans that created history by selling out every Mt Smart Stadium game.
The Broncos knew they were in for a fight on the Gold Coast but seemed well up for it, riding Reece Walsh’s brilliance and Adam Reynolds’ class to an 18-10 halftime lead.
Rocked by the early injury exits of Payne Haas and Ezra Mam, the heavyweights crumbled to concede seven unanswered tries in the second half. The 46-18 result represented Brisbane’s eighth loss in nine matches.
The Warriors ($21 to make the Top 8) and Broncos ($17) now need to win each of their remaining four games (they both have a bye left) and rely on a slew of results in other matches – including each other’s – to go their way. On current form, they’ll be lucky to scrape together another victory between them.
Titans strike gold
Gold Coast needs to keep winning – and there’s matches against Sydney Roosters and Penrith on the horizon in the last three rounds – but who wouldn’t you give Dessie’s Destroyers a chance against after Saturday’s watershed beatdown of ‘big brother’?
The 46-18 defeat of the Broncos has to rank among the greatest days of the Titans’ often tortured 18-season history.
A 36-0, seven-tries-to-none second-half annihilation of a star-studded team just as desperate for two premiership points gave the Titans their fifth win in six games, continuing an unlikely turnaround for a side that lost their opening six games.
Winger Jojo Fifita (three line-breaks, three tries, three try assists, 138 metres) and quicksilver fullback Keano Kini (two tries, two try assists, five tackle-breaks, 202 metres) stole the show, but the tyros were representative of the collective exuberance, speed and adventure the Titans play their footy with.
It’s also a team brimming with unsung heroes: ever underrated centres Phil Sami and Brian Kelly, converted prop Erin Clark and the versatile Chris Randall keep doing the job for Hasler.
David Fifita’s barnstorming, aggressive display was a terrifying prospect for the Titans’ upcoming opponents. And in the middle of it all, the cast-iron veteran in the No.7, Kieran Foran.
The Titans are still rated $13 longshots to make the Top 8 – and neck-and-neck in this Friday’s tantalising home clash with the fourth-placed, but very beatable, Cronulla Sharks.
Saints stand tall
St George Illawarra may be among the NRL’s least consistent outfits, but the team’s recurrent ability to bounce back from a loss has catapulted them into the Top 8 with five rounds remaining.
The Dragons have not won more than two games in a row since Shane Flanagan’s arrival – but they haven’t lost more than two in a row, either, and have not gone down in back-to-back games since Round 9.
A gutsy 18-16 away upset of a ladder-leading Melbourne side on a seven-match winning streak was the fourth time in just over two months that the Saints have responded to a 13-plus defeat with a victory, putting a 46-10 loss to Penrith immediately in the rearview mirror.
Ben Hunt responded brilliantly to a shocker against the Panthers, Tyrell Sloan did the same after a week in NSW Cup, while the 19.5-point underdogs’ defence held firm against the might of the Storm’s first full-strength spine since Round 9.
It sets up a mouth-watering Kogarah showdown with red-hot, fifth-placed Canterbury, with just two points separating the teams. The Dragons’ price to end a six-year finals drought has been slashed to $1.80.
Minor hiccup sets up virtual top spot playoff
Melbourne has a Thursday night visit to Sydney to take on Souths this week and Penrith head down the road for a derby with Parramatta on Friday, but both big guns will have half an eye on Round 24 following the Storm’s shock loss to the Dragons.
Four points clear heading into last weekend, the Storm looked certain to collect their fifth minor premiership in nine years. But in all likelihood a home victory in this potential grand final preview will hoist the Panthers into top spot – where they would look to finish for the fourth time in five years.
The 18-16 result against the Saints was far from disastrous, but it was against a team the Panthers had hammered by 36 points six days earlier.
The three-time champs also met some unexpected resistance on Sunday in the form of a plucky challenge from struggling Newcastle.
The Knights clawed back to 14-all at Penrith, but Nathan Cleary’s unbelievable form since returning from injury continued with the decisive solo try in the 69th minute, setting the Panthers on course for a hard-earned 22-14 win.
The Panthers shortened slightly to $2.60 for the premiership, ahead of the Storm ($3.75) and Sydney Roosters ($4.00), who made hard work of a 40-34 defeat of the sliding Dolphins on Friday.
Belmore-mania takes hold
The scenes in the streets of Belmore on Sunday night were more akin to those reserved for a grand final triumph.
But the celebrations after a nervy 22-18 defeat of a brave Canberra outfit reflected the unbridled joy of long-suffering Canterbury fans as prospects of ending an eight-year finals absence become a near-certainty – and the Bulldogs’ first top-four finish since 2012 becomes a very real possibility.
It’s the 2024 version of the ‘Up the Wahs’ phenomenon.
Climbing to fifth with their seventh win in nine games, the Bulldogs proved that after their thrilling 41-16 win over the Broncos that they’re just as comfortable getting down in the trenches as they chancing their arm to blow an opponent off the park.
Meanwhile, captain Stephen Crichton – who missed the Brisbane blowout – cemented his status as the NRL’s most impressive young leader with a sensational two-try display. Josh Addo-Carr also returned with a double after a nine-week layoff.
Unlike most teams who break long finals droughts, the Bulldogs boast five players with 13 grand final appearances and eight premierships between them, a huge advantage when September rolls around.
Canterbury has come into the fourth line of betting for the title at $15, alongside overvalued Cronulla.