The NRL finals picture is gradually becoming clearer with four rounds to go. Six teams have virtually stamped their playoffs passport, while another two or three sides all but officially bowed out with Round 23 defeats.
Here’s how the 2024 NRL premiership’s shaping up a month out from the end of the home-and-away season.
Home hopefuls blow big opportunity
Cronulla, Manly and Canterbury essentially confirmed their places in the 2024 NRL finals with resounding Round 23 wins – and did it at the expense of desperate home sides who had every right to fancy their chances of a crucial victory over higher-ranked opponents.
Gold Coast had emerged as everyone’s second-favourite team after an exhilarating surge, yet failed to turn up in a 44-0 loss to a very impressive Sharks side that was missing its first-choice halves.
The Titans bore no resemblance to the side that blew the Broncos off the same ground six days earlier, instead suffering a near-fatal defeat – by far their biggest of the season.
Canberra looked set to play its part in a barnburner against Manly on Saturday afternoon, but 12-all in the dying stages of the first half turned into a 46-12 Sea Eagles lead in the space of 22 horrifying minutes.
Two Raiders tries did little to gloss over another GIO Stadium surrender, the fourth time in seven games they have conceded 34-plus at home. Ricky Stuart’s side is still in the frame (albeit with a bad for-and-against) ahead of a tough run to the finish line against the Cowboys, Panthers, Roosters and Dragons.
Speaking of the Saints, their win-loss-win-loss pattern extended to eight games, following up a rousing upset in Melbourne with a convincing 28-10 loss to red-hot Canterbury at a heaving Jubilee Oval.
The Dragons lost their briefly-held grip on eighth spot, but a palatable remaining draw against the Titans, Sharks, Eels and Raiders means they’re still very much in the hunt – though Kyle Flanagan’s apparent face-bite on Stephen Crichton doesn’t help their quest.
Capitalising on their rivals’ missed opportunities, the Dolphins resuscitated their finals ambitions with a wild 34-32 golden point win over the hapless Warriors.
After blowing a 26-12 lead with 23 minutes left in excruciating – but all-too-familiar – fashion, the Dolphins snuck home via an unlikely hero. Sean O’Sullivan buried an angled field goal shot from beyond the 40-metre line in extra time to put the sophomore club back into eighth place.
The Dolphins still look highly likely to drop out, however, with games to come against the Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos and Knights – a brutal draw that will be music to the ears of the Raiders, Dragons and co.
Never dead
If they’re not routinely dismantling teams, the Panthers merely make up for a subpar performance by producing an improbable escape act. That’s the reality facing teams when Nathan Cleary is in the three-time premiers’ line-up.
Rejuvenated Parramatta was on track for a memorable derby boilover, leading 34-20 with just over seven minutes on the clock as second-last took the fight to the second-placed team on the ladder.
Three and a half minutes later, the Panthers had conjured three tries before Cleary buried the go-ahead conversion from out wide.
The fightback also underlined what a special talent Daine Laurie is – and how unlucky he would be to miss out on a full-strength 17 at finals time, with NSW No.1 Dylan Edwards due back this week.
The $2.60 title favourite Panthers’ escape sets up a top-of-the-table barnburner that is likely to decide the minor premiership.
Melbourne Storm, who meandered to a 28-16 win over Souths on Thursday, hold a two-point competition with near-identical points differentials ahead of the Round 24 opener in Sydney’s west.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
After back-to-back capitulations against Canterbury and Gold Coast – compounded by injuries to Payne Haas and Ezra Mam – it would have been easy for embattled Brisbane to go to Townsville and turn it up.
Instead, the Broncos rallied from 18-6 down to steamroll North Queensland 42-18 in Townsville, virtually the inverse of how their losses to the Bulldogs and Titans unfolded.
Beast mode Kotoni Staggs (two tries, four line-breaks), an injured Reece Walsh (209 metres, two try assists) and Patrick Carrigan (226 metres, one try assist, 33 tackles) took ownership for the flagging team’s fortunes, while Corey Jensen (203 metres, 28 tackles) stood tall in Haas’ absence.
The Broncos are four points outside the eight and have a bye in Round 24, before a run home against Parramatta, the Dolphins and Melbourne, all at Suncorp Stadium. They’ll need other results to fall their way, but a late charge for the Top 8 is certainly not beyond the realms.
The Broncos are a team no other contender wants in the finals – particularly if they arrive with a head of steam up. Their $101 premiership price is more a reflection of the difficulty they face just making the playoffs, rather than their ability to do some damage if they sneak in.
Cowboys fall off the horse
The Cowboys have won eight of their last 11 games to seemingly have a Top 8 finish at their mercy, but they remain the NRL’s most inscrutable team of 2024.
Todd Payten’s side have enjoyed the highs of away wins over Sydney Roosters and Penrith without their Origin contingent, but two of the three losses during that period have seen them leak 40 points at home to depleted Warriors and Broncos sides.
The Cowboys had a gift-wrapped opportunity to snuff out the Broncos’ hopes and virtually seal their own spot in the finals, yet blew a 12-point lead to go down 42-18.
They have scored the third-most and conceded the fourth-most points in the NRL – a stark illustration of their strengths and weaknesses.
A Round 25 bye helps, but remaining matches against desperate Canberra and in-form Canterbury and Melbourne means seventh-placed North Queensland – slipping to $34 in the premiership market – is far from home in the Top 8 race.
Knights Sharpen up
In a season where it seems likely that a couple of teams will fall into – rather than surge into – the last couple of spots in the Top 8, Newcastle cannot yet be ruled out of the equation.
The Knights backed up a valiant loss at Penrith last Sunday with relatively comfortable 34-18 victory over Wests Tigers to move to 10th and remain just two points shy of eighth.
The undoubted highlight was a sizzling four-try haul from wiry winger Fletcher Sharpe in only his seventh NRL game – and in the space of just 35 minutes. Two were freakish efforts involving kicks, the other two courtesy of brilliant balls from Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai.
A solid performance from the Knights’ umpteenth halves pairing of the season, Phoenix Crossland and Tyson Gamble, was another bright spot.
While it was far from Knights of late-2023 (disappointingly, they failed to put the foot on the throat and post any points after the 55th minute), a watered down version of that unforgettable rally is not out of the question.
Newcastle’s remaining games are against Cronulla and Souths away, then back-to-back home assignments against Gold Coast and the Dolphins – with three wins potentially being enough to get them over the line into the finals.