The NRL finals make-up is becoming more clear-cut, with the contenders flexing their muscle and the pretenders showing their true 2024 colours.
There’s still 13 teams mathematically in the mix for the playoffs and only four are officially over the line, but the current Top 8 now looks odds-on to be featuring in the real stuff in September.
Weight of the premiership on Cleary’s shoulder
A top-of-the-table thriller on Thursday night was overshadowed by yet another injury to Nathan Cleary, who left the field in the 66th minute of a rollercoaster match with the scores locked at 22-all.
There was a sense of inevitability that Cleary would get Penrith home in the barnburner, but without him on the paddock Melbourne seized the opportunity to clinch a well-deserved 24-22 upset.
The result restored the Storm’s four-point lead, all but wrapping up the minor premiership – which could have ramifications at the other end of the Top 8 if Craig Bellamy opts to rest a host of stars from their final-round clash with a potentially still-in-the-mix Brisbane outfit.
Cleary is due back for the finals and the second-placed Panthers have a relatively gentle run home against Canberra, Souths and Gold Coast.
But it’s not inconceivable that the three-time champs drop a game and lose their home qualifying final advantage, or even get rolled twice and fall out of the top four altogether with red-hot Canterbury only four points adrift.
Meanwhile, Cleary’s shoulder setback feels like the factor on which the 2024 premiership will hinge. The market has reacted swiftly, with the Panthers easing out to $3.25 and the Storm closing in to $3.50.
Season’s improvers stand up
As it stands, four of 2023’s finalists will miss the boat this season – and the teams on track to replace them in the Top 8 all produced big Round 24 statements in the face of varying degrees of resistance from do-or-die opponents.
Manly snuffed out the last gasps of the Warriors’ playoff chances, turning a 10-all halftime scoreline into a composed 24-10 win in torrential rain to all but clinch their place in the finals.
Canterbury made it four straight wins for the first time since 2019, underling their premiership dark horse qualities in Bundaberg by strangling the Dolphins out of what for more than an hour was a gripping, hard-fought encounter.
The Bulldogs – now into the fourth line of premiership betting at $10 – coupled the defensive resolve that has underpinned their entire campaign with a burgeoning attacking flair to run away with it 30-10.
Flighty North Queensland bounced back from a dismal collapse in a 42-18 loss to Brisbane in Round 23 with a 42-4 rout of a dismal Canberra side.
Todd Payten’s punt on dropping soon-to-depart Chad Townsend paid rich dividends. No.7 replacement Jake Clifford scored a try, laid on two more and ran for 197 metres. Meanwhile, another exiting veteran, Valentine Holmes, celebrated settling his future by racking up 26 points – including a hat-trick.
Perhaps most impressively, St George Illawarra regained eighth spot outright by seeing off Gold Coast 32-16, in the face of conceding a long-range try in the opening two minutes and a mountain of second-half possession against them on their own line.
The task for the Dragons – who remain vulnerable with a poor points differential – over the closing rounds is finding consistency, having won back-to-back games just twice. A huge local derby awaits with Cronulla this Sunday, before winding up the regular season against Parramatta and Canberra.
Foran against the odds
Three hundred is the new 200, with only two players – Geoff Gerard and Terry Lamb – reaching the hallowed first-grade appearances mark in the pre-NRL era.
The tally of premiership triple centurions now stands at 53.
The latest player to achieve the feat deserves special recognition, however. It’s a milestone that seemed highly unlikely at the midway point of the career of Kieran Foran, who has overcome more injury setbacks and personal turmoil than any 300-gamer.
During his ill-fated move to Parramatta, a bridging season at the Warriors and a perpetually interrupted stint at Canterbury, the 2011 Manly premiership winner played just NRL 66 games in five seasons.
Foran’s resurrection has been nothing short of remarkable, missing just a handful of games in a memorable 2021-22 return to the Sea Eagles and an admirable couple of years as Gold Coast’s linchpin. The crew of ex-teammates who made the trek to Wollongong reflected the esteem he’s held at Manly.
Among the toughest halves to play the game, 31-Test Kiwi Foran’s third partnership with Des Hasler has effectively fallen short of finals footy in 2024 via Sunday’s loss to the Dragons, but the building blocks of success are in place with the Titans turning an 0-6 start into a creditable campaign.
What Knight have been
While their fellow desperados were soundly beaten, Newcastle was the heartbreak story of Round 24 following a golden point loss at Cronulla on Sunday afternoon.
The Knights fought back from an early 10-0 deficit, somehow turned the sin-binning of Phoenix Crossland in the dying seconds of the first half into an 18-10 lead and hung in grimly after the Sharks clawed back to 18-all.
Kalyn Ponga looked to have put the Knights in front again, only for his successful field goal snap to get scrubbed by a highly contentious penalty for using blockers – a decision both coaches disagreed with post-match.
Sharks fill-in playmaker Daniel Atkinson had a field goal disallowed for the same infringement in the next set, before piloting the match-winner through in the 85th minute.
The result left the Knights four points in arrears of the eighth-placed Dragons. With one of the better remaining draws – the Rabbitohs away, and the Titans and Dolphins at home – it could ultimately prove the difference between finals footy and September oblivion.
Wooden spoon race revived
Small mercies, perhaps. But Wests Tigers’ 18-16 victory over South Sydney was a season highlight for the beleaguered joint venture, full of character and contributed to significantly by the club’s band of up-and-comers.
The victory – after surviving a last-minute forward pass call against the Rabbitohs – snapped a seven-match losing streak during which the Tigers conceded 28-plus points in every game.
A fifth win also ensures the Tigers finish with a higher tally than 2022-23 – and gives them a chance of avoiding becoming only the fourth three-time wooden spooners of the limited-tackle era.
Benji Marshall’s charges face a tall order against Manly this Thursday before getting a guaranteed two points from the bye.
Parramatta’s brief form revival subsided dramatically in a 38-14 loss to Sydney Roosters on Friday. If the Eels lose to the Broncos and Dragons over the next fortnight, it sets up a tantalising de facto wooden spoon playoff with the Tigers at Campbelltown in Round 27.