The 2024 US Presidential Election is almost here, and it’s shaping up to be one of the tightest races in recent memory.
Both parties are battling fiercely in the swing states that will ultimately determine the outcome and both polls and betting markets suggest that it is still a very live race.
As someone who backed Trump at $4 in 2016 and Biden in 2020, I’ve followed the twists and turns of these elections closely as the betting markets have fluctuated.
We have betting markets available for every state, and below you can find our thoughts for the best betting plays across our wide range of markets.
Election Winner
Vice President Kamala Harris is currently priced at $2.25 to win the 2024 US Presidential Election and that is value in a race that the majority of credible pollsters and analysts believe is a genuine toss-up.
While polling suggests the race is tight, Harris has a strong path to victory, particularly with solid ground games in key swing states.
Her odds of $2.25 are longer than some predictive models, like 538, suggest and given the uncertainty surrounding this election, backing Harris provides a decent edge for bettors looking to capitalise on the volatility of this election.
Back Kamala Harris To Win The 2024 US Presidential Election @ $2.25
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Individual State Previews
Let’s turn our attention to the swing states, these are the battlegrounds that will decide the election, and we’ve highlighted the best betting opportunities below.
Arizona
Arizona has become one of the more interesting battlegrounds in recent elections.
After flipping blue in 2020 for the first time in decades, Democrats are now listed as the underdogs at $3.50.
However, there’s excellent value here, as polling shows the race is closer than the odds suggest.
A strong Latino voter turnout could swing Arizona back to the Democrats, making this a great longshot bet.
Back Democrats To Win Arizona @ $3.50
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Georgia
Georgia was one of the biggest surprises in 2020 when it flipped blue, but the odds suggest a return to form for the Republicans in 2024.
They are currently priced at $1.44, and with polling showing a Republican lead, this looks to be a safer bet than most other states.
Back Republicans To Win Georgia @ $1.44
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Michigan
Michigan has been a Democratic stronghold in recent cycles, and polling shows it is leaning blue again.
The Democrats are priced at $1.95 to win Michigan, offering solid value for a state that flipped blue in 2020 after a surprise result in 2016.
Given the current dynamics and strong union support, this is a race the Democrats should take.
Back Democrats To Win Michigan @ $1.95
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Nevada
Nevada has voted for the winning candidate in recent elections, and this time it remains a battleground.
Democrats are priced at $2.10 to win Nevada, and there’s strong value in backing them at this price.
The state’s large union population and robust Democratic turnout efforts make it a prime candidate to stay in the blue column.
Back Democrats To Win Nevada @ $2.10
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
North Carolina
North Carolina has been a perennial swing state but remains elusive for Democrats in recent cycles.
However, they are showing some signs of strength, and at $2.75, there is real value in backing them to finally flip the state.
While Republicans are still favored, the tight polling and increasing voter registration trends for Democrats make this an enticing option for value-seeking punters.
Back Democrats To Win North Carolina @ $2.75
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is another key battleground that flipped blue in 2020, and the Democrats are priced at $2.10 to win it again.
The state’s working-class electorate is leaning toward Harris, and with strong union support and voter outreach, the Democrats are well-positioned to hold Pennsylvania.
Back Democrats To Win Pennsylvania @ $2.10
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has emerged as one of the most closely contested states in recent elections, but Democrats have maintained a strong presence here since flipping the state in 2020.
With Harris investing heavily in the ground game, Democrats are poised to win the state at a value price of $1.95.
Polling shows this state is trending toward the Democrats, making this a solid play.
Back Democrats To Win Wisconsin @ $1.95
Odds are correct as of 12:30pm 25/10/24 and are subject to fluctuation