Daily Tennis Tips – Friday January 17: Australian Open Day 6

17^th seed Marta Kostyuk is well on the way to replicating her breakout 2024 Australian Open quarter-final run, but 11th seed Paula Badosa shapes as a huge third-round challenge after two strong wins.

Badosa has a 3-1 lead in this rivalry – including wins in Australian Open qualifying in 2019 and in the third round in 2022 – but Kostyuk took out their most recent clash at Wimbledon in 2023.

Kostyuk, who pushed Coco Gauff to three sets in last year’s quarters, came into this tournament on the back of first-round exits in Brisbane and Adelaide.

She was on the ropes early against Nao Hibino on Monday but rallied to win 3-6 6-3 6-1.

The Ukrainian’s 6-3 6-0 demolition of Jule Niemeier was much more straightforward.

The WTA’s Comeback Player of the Year in 2024, Badosa also had a modest lead-in to the Australian Open but has put away Wang Xinyu (6-3 7-5) and Talia Gibson (6-1 6-0) very efficiently so far.

Badosa, a $1.45 favourite here, reached the US Open quarter-finals last year and looks primed for a deep run – but Kostyuk should prove a tough nut to crack.

The respective comeback narratives of Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic will really start to pick up momentum with a victory in this third-round showdown at the Australian Open.

Osaka is into the Round of 32 of a grand slam for the first time since returning from a maternity break – and it’s come in the face of a tough draw. The 2019 and 2021 champion outlasted Caroline Garcia 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the first round, then rallied to beat 20th seed Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-1 6-3.

Former world No.4 Bencic is only just inside the top 300 after coming back from a maternity break in October.

The Swiss impressed in her first WTA Tour event back at the Adelaide International and carried that momentum into Melbourne, upsetting grand slam winner and 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 7-6 then seeing off Suzan Lamens 6-1 7-6.

Bencic is 3-2 against Osaka, including ending her US Open title defence in the fourth round in 2019. But Osaka won the only encounter since, coming from a set down in the 2022 Miami Masters semis.

This has the makings of a thriller, but Osaka has been comfortably the better of the pair on serve this week and that might be enough to get her into the last 16.

It’s an all-French affair in the Australian Open’s Round of 32 as 14th seed Ugo Humbert renews his rivalry with 20th seed Arthur Fils.

Humbert has a 4-1 lead against Fils, including a 6-2 6-2 win at the Canadian Masters last year.

But Fils carries the psychological edge of a 5-7 7-6 6-3 victory over his countryman in the Japan Open final just three months ago.

Humbert is yet to drop a set in Melbourne, disposing of qualifiers Matteo Gigante and Hady Habib for the loss of just one service game.

Fils has prevailed in consecutive four-setters against Otto Virtanen and Quentin Halys.

Both players are searching for a breakout slam run: Humbert’s best efforts in 24 majors were Round of 16 appearances at Wimbledon in 2019 and 2024; 20-year-old Fils also made it to the fourth round at Wimbledon last year – but this is just his eighth slam.

Fils, the $2.20 underdog, is every chance of a minor upset here – he’s played a higher calibre of opponent so far and is winning over 80 percent of his first-serve points.

Either way, this seems destined to go to four or five sets.

Aussie Aleksandar Vukic has rolled one seed at the Australian Open and is looking to upset another in the third round, world No.18 Jack Draper – with both players forced to go the distance twice this week already.

Twenty-eight-year-old Vukic had never been past the second round of a major previously. But after twice recovering from a set down to beat Damir Dzumhur in five, he fought back from 2-1 down to stun 22nd seed Sebastian Korda in another five-set barnburner.

The world No.68 dug deep after Korda won the second and third sets easily, while Vukic has racked up 41 aces across his two marathon matches.

Draper has trekked a similarly arduous road to the last 32, albeit as a favourite. He finished over the top of Mariano Navone 4-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2 and came from a set down twice again in Wednesday’s 6-7 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-3 slog against Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis.

It’s the first time he’s made it past the second round of a major outside of the US Open, having made a breakout semi-final run in New York last year.

The 23-year-old Brit will need to defy a raucous Melbourne crowd again here – and he looks too short as a $1.19 favourite based on what we’ve seen from both players this week. Buckle up for another lengthy match.