Paula Badosa v Olga Danilovic
1.45pm
Back Danilovic to Cover the Games Handicap (-3.5) @ $1.91
World No.55 Olga Danilovic is aiming to knock over a third straight seeded Australian Open opponent in the shape of Paula Badosa in the fourth round.
The Serbian, who reached the last 16 at the 2024 French Open, is appearing in just her seventh grand slam.
But she has been on fire in Melbourne this week, beating Aranxta Rus (6-4 6-4), 25th seed Liudmila Samsonova (6-1 6-2) and seventh seed Jessica Pegula (7-6 6-1).
World No.12 Badosa has matched her best AO performance – also making the fourth round in 2022 – and is vying for a third major quarter-final, getting to the last eight at the 2021 French Open and last year’s US Open.
The Spanish star beat Wang Xinyu 6-3 7-6 in the first round, Talia Gibson 6-1 6-0 in the second and 17th seed Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3 in Friday’s third-round encounter.
Danilovic is 2-1 against Badosa, but the pair have not met since 2019. Badosa is the more powerful ball-striker from the baseline, but $2.90 underdog Danilovic’s serve has been excellent all week and she proved against Pegula that she can pick apart players who are too defensive. This should be tight.
Coco Gauff v Belinda Bencic
1.45pm
SGM – Back Gauff to Win and Under 20.5 Total Games @ $2.02
World No.3 Coco Gauff is vying for her eighth grand slam quarter-final berth in the space of 16 majors.
Her Australian Open Round of 16 opponent is Belinda Bencic, who has staged a wonderful return from a year-long maternity break.
Gauff is warming to the task in Melbourne, beating Sofia Kenin (6-3 6-3) and Jodie Burrage (6-3 7-5), before stepping it up a notch in a 6-4 6-2 victory over 30th seed Leylah Annie Fernandez (6-4 6-2).
Former world No.4 Bencic’s three runs beyond the fourth round of a grand slam all came at the US Open.
The Swiss has wound back the clock, though, with an upset of 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko (6-3 7-5) and a win over Suzan Lamens (6-1 7-6), before progressing past Naomi Osaka, who retired after Bencic won a first-set tiebreak.
They have split their two previous meetings: Bencic prevailed in the 2021 Adelaide International semis, while Gauff won in the 2023 Citi Open quarter-finals.
Gauff’s serve can be vulnerable – particularly against aggressive players like Bencic – but she is a consistent big-stage performer now and the superior player in most departments.
Ugo Humbert v Alexander Zverev
6.15pm
Back Zverev to Win 3-0 @ $2.15
A 12th quarter-final from his past 18 grand slams beckons for world No.2 Alexander Zverev, but 14th seed Ugo Humbert stands in his way in the Australian Open’s fourth round.
Zverev, a semi-finalist here in 2020 and 2024, has been dominant so far in straight-sets wins over Lucas Pouille (6-4 6-4 6-4), Pedro Martinez (6-1 6-4 6-1) and Jacob Fearnley (6-3 6-4 6-4). The German has dropped just two service games.
Humbert overwhelmed qualifiers Matteo Gigante (7-6 7-5 6-4) and Hady Habib (6-3 6-4 6-4) in straight sets, then fought back from an early deficit to take a lead over Arthur Fils, who subsequently retired with Humbert 4-6 7-5 6-4 1-0 in front.
Zverev is 2-1 in this rivalry, chalking up wins at the past two Paris Masters – including a 6-2 6-2 demolition in the final less than three months ago, while Humbert’s victory came at the 2021 Halle Open.
That recent mismatch is a sizeable psychological hurdle for Humbert to overcome and Zverev is hitting the ball too crisply to back against in this one.
Novak Djokovic v Jiri Lehecka
7.15pm
Back Djokovic to Cover the Games Handicap (-5.5) @ $1.91
Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic is flying under the radar somewhat at the Australian Open, but his campaign ramps up with a fourth-round showdown against 24th seed Jiri Lehecka.
Their only meeting to date was at last year’s United Cup, with Djokovic winning in three sets.
Seventh seed Djokovic won four-setters against Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria, before going up a couple of gears in a 6-1 6-4 6-4 thrashing of 26th seed Tomas Machac.
Czech tyro Lehecka was a surprise quarter-finalist here in 2023.
He’s navigated a fairly soft draw so far this week to eliminate Li Tu (6-1 3-6 6-3 7-6), Hugo Gaston (6-3 3-1 ret) and Benjamin Bonzi (6-2 6-3 6-3).
Djokovic has only exited a grand slam before the quarter-finals 16 times in 76 major appearances. His last five Australian Open tilts have resulted in four championships and a semi-final run last year.
It would take a career-best showing from Lehecka – whose sole top-10 win at a major was over Felix Auger-Aliassime at the 2023 AO – to upset the living legend.