Few would have predicted the final four teams left in the NFL this season, although one would have been on just about everyone’s bingo card.
Like others chasing the three-peat before them, the Kansas City Chiefs are two wins away from NFL history.
But will they be able to finish the job unlike the others?
After Wild Card Weekend failed to deliver on the drama, there was no shortage of entertainment over the last two days with some epic encounters that came down to the final possession.
Let’s recap some of the major talking points in this week’s edition of Five Lessons Learned.
1 – Is Kansas City’s Luck About To Run Out?
Yet again the Chiefs stumbled their way through a game, finding a way to win despite looking like they were not ready to go.
Thankfully they caught more than a few lucky breaks with Houston not taking advantage of their opportunities, especially in the kicking game.
Admittedly the Chiefs caught a few lucky breaks on the way as well with some favourable superstar calls going the way of Patrick Mahomes and company as well.
That call was especially frustrating with plenty of current and former players voicing their frustration with the error.
Actually JJ Watt had a very good weekend on the socials.
But when you reach the top of the mountain, those are the sorts of benefits you wind up getting, take a look at any good team in league history and you will find some good fortune along the way.
Plus they have a guy capable of doing this.
Unlike in the Super Bowl against Tampa, Mahomes actually completed that miracle pass.
But will that be enough next week?
Unless Buffalo decides the moment is far too big for them, they will give Kansas City all they can handle.
2 – Detroit’s Disaster
It was all set up for the Lions to finally make the Super Bowl this season.
Home field advantage, a seemingly unstoppable offence and a good enough but depleted defence with a pair of coordinators that are likely leaving to be head coaches soon.
Throw in a Saturday night playoff game in front of a raucous crowd against a team lead by a rookie quarterback and the Lions were almost perfectly set up for a run to New Orleans.
But what unfolded instead was a comedy of errors that will leave Dan Campbell and company wondering what could have been.
It’s tough to put the blame for that showing entirely on one player but the internet is certainly trying to load up on Jared Goff after his four costly turnovers including this pick six.
Admittedly there was an uncalled penalty on the play as Goff got rocked on the return but with the way the Detroit’s defence was playing, that surely would have been a touchdown a few plays later.
It is the tough part of evaluating Goff’s day, he had some good plays, throwing for 313 yards and a touchdown but the bad plays were unbelievably costly.
A sentiment that could easily be applied to the entire Detroit offence, it worked well until it did not.
Jahmyr Gibbs was dynamic out of the backfield with 175 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns, Amon-Ra St Brown went for 137 and Jameson Williams was quiet in the passing game but did break off a 61 yard touchdown run on a fantastic design by Ben Johnson.
However Williams was also involved in one of, if not the biggest mistake of the game from Detroit.
Down 38-28 with 12 minutes left, Johnson dialled up this trick play and short of multiple serious injuries occurring, the worst case scenario unfolded for the Lions.
You can take your pick on where to assign the blame for that one, although you would think that offensive whiz Ben Johnson would know that is not the best time for one of his wacky trick plays.
Of course if he had any confidence in his offence to get the job done conventionally he might not have had to dive into the bag of tricks.
Then there’s the Lions defence, which did come into the game with the excuse of having several key players out with injury.
Pretty much anything Washington did worked, and Detroit could not make a stop to get back into the game.
It’s tough for any defence to overcome five turnovers by the offence (despite Detroit doing once this season already), but when those mistakes come to the fore, the other side of the ball has to pick up the slack.
3 – Washington Provides the New Rebuild Blueprint
For all the despair in Detroit, it is matched if not topped by the jubilation in Washington as the Commanders historic turnaround added another remarkable chapter.
Consider this, barely 18 months ago this franchise was a mess, with an egomaniacal owner who was accused of all sorts of misdeeds and seemingly had no clue on how to build a winning NFL team outside of (unsuccessfully) throwing stupid money at the roster.
Unsurprisingly, that had not produced the results Snyder thought it would and
In late July 2023, billionaire Josh Harris acquired the franchise and set about changing the entire culture in the office.
It was too soon to make immediate changes but after a disastrous 2023 season saw them finish with the second overall pick, Harris started to make his moves.
After a long and drawn out search, he got his guys with Adam Peters taking over as the new GM and Dan Quinn as the head coach.
They filled out the coaching staff with some quality assistants before bringing in the complimentary pieces and finally adding some true gems in the draft, starting with Jayden Daniels.
The rookie quarterback has revitalised the team and engineered some late game heroics to lead them to a 12-5 record.
Then in the playoffs he went to Tampa and engineered a game winning drive to book a trip to Detroit the next week, where he did this.
When you put it in context, this is the sort of stuff you would expect to see in a movie rather than in real life.
Unfortunately for all of the new coaches and rookie quarterbacks coming into the league over the next few years, their owners are going to point to the Commanders and ask why can’t the replicate that.
4 – Saquon’s Storybook Run Continues
Speaking of turnarounds in the last 12 months, how about Saquon Barkley going from the New York Giants to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The guy ran for over 2000 yards in 16 games during the season and he just kept rolling into the playoffs.
He once again had his day against the Rams, going for over 200 yards on the ground with a couple of long touchdowns.
As the weather turned, Saquon got stronger just running and running to keep the Eagles ahead of the Rams in a game they could very easily have blown.
Making it even more impressive is that in spite of the snow and an injured Jalen Hurts, Barkley kept finding the holes his offensive line opened up for him despite the defence knowing he was getting the ball.
Unlike last week though, Barkley made sure to finish his run to ice the game (no pun intended of course).
The quarterbacks will get all of the headlines and the discussion points but outside of those guys, it’s tough not to have Barkley as the most likeable figure remaining in the tournament.
What will he do next?
5 – It Just Might Not Happen for Lamar Jackson
This was the year for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens… until it wasn’t.
Yet again the season came to a screeching halt before the Super Bowl with a disappointing playoff defeat leaving a bitter taste in their mouths.
On a snowy night in Buffalo, the Ravens once again made too many mistakes in a big moment and could not get over the line.
Jackson’s frustration in the postgame press conference was evident for all to see.
And you can understand why given Jackson had a couple of bad turnovers early on including this fumble that Von Miller nearly took to the house.
However he was not alone in his mistakes, with the normally surehanded Mark Andrews letting him down with a couple of key drops.
None moreso than on what should have been the game tying two point conversion.
Jackson is without a doubt a phenomenal quarterback but in a win or go home situation, he has yet to deliver.
Admittedly pretty much all of his seasons have come to an end at the hands of the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in the last few years, but it does show how razor thin the margins are at the top of the AFC.
And it won’t get any easier for him in the coming years with Joe Burrow and other challengers looking to compete for the Lombardi Trophy yet again.