Elena Rybakina v Madison Keys
2.15pm

Back Over 22.5 Total Games @ $1.95

Two-time Australian Open semi-finalist Madison Keys and 2023 runner-up Elena Rybakina lock horns in a fourth-round blockbuster.

The head-to-head is locked at 2-2, with Rybakina winning the last two encounters at the 2022 Ostrava Open and last season’s Miami Masters.

World No.6 Rybakina has thrashed Emerson Jones (6-1 6-1), Iva Jovic (6-0 6-3) and 32nd seed Dayana Yastremska (6-3 6-4) so far in Melbourne following on from a strong United Cup campaign.

But a back injury that prevented her from competing at the Paris Olympics and forced her withdrawal from the second round of the US Open resurfaced during the win over Yastremska.

Keys, the 19th seed, has made it through some more arduous assignments, holding off Ann Li (6-4 7-5) and Elena-Gabriela Ruse (7-6 2-6 7-5) before eliminating 10th seed Danielle Collins (6-4 6-4).

The 29-year-old has been beyond the Round of 16 at 10 majors, including an AO semi-final run as recently as 2022.

Rybakina looked to have rediscovered the power-laced form that saw her challenging Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka for WTA supremacy in recent seasons.

The back complaint is the big X-factor ahead of this showdown, however, and the over consequently shapes as a more attractive option.

Gael Monfils v Ben Shelton
4.15pm

Back Monfils to Cover the Games Handicap (+2.5) @ $1.80

Gael Monfils’ remarkable resurgence is entering fairytale territory at the Australian Open, with 21st seed Ben Shelton – 16 years the French great’s junior – next in the firing line.

The 38-year-old Monfils, who endured a long run of injuries for two seasons after reaching the AO quarter-finals in 2022, started the year with a surprise capture of the Auckland Open title (a tournament that saw top seed Shelton lose his first match).

Rising to No.41 in the rankings, the former world No.6 outlasted 30th seed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a five-set classic in the first round in Melbourne, put away Daniel Altmaier in straight sets and then pulled off a huge 3-6 7-5 7-6 6-4 upset against fourth seed Taylor Fritz.

Shelton, a breakout AO quarter-finalist in 2023, has put the Auckland failure behind him with three solid victories – against Brandon Nakashima in straight sets, and Pablo Carreno Busta and 16th seed Lorenzo Musetti in four.

The tyro has dropped just three games on serve and has sent down 40 aces.

But after outperforming noted big-servers Mpetshi Perricard (zero break-point opportunities) and Fritz (24 aces), $2.25 underdog Monfils is an irresistible option to write another chapter in one of the most compelling storylines of the tournament.

Emma Navarro v Daria Kasatkina
6.15pm

Back Kasatkina to Win @ $1.94

Eighth seed Emma Navarro has completed a set of grand slam Round of 16 appearances in the space of a year with three hard-fought victories, but ninth seed Daria Kasatkina arguably brings greater momentum into this showdown after racking up three authoritative wins.

Navarro made it to the third round of a major for the first time on Australian Open debut last year, then secured her first fourth-round appearance at the French Open, made her first quarter-final at Wimbledon and got to the semis at the US Open.

It’s been a slog to the last 16 in Melbourne, however, outlasting Peyton Stearns (6-7 7-6 7-5), Wang Xiyu (6-3 3-6 6-4) and Ons Jabeur (6-4 3-6 6-4) in lengthy, seesawing affairs.

Kasatkina has been something of an underachiever at grand slam level: since back-to-back quarter-finals at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2018, the only time she’s been past the fourth round was a semi-final run at Roland Garros in 2022.

But the Russian’s long-awaited first hard-court slam quarter-final beckons after disposing of Viktoriya Tomova (6-1 6-3), Wang Yafan (6-2 6-0) and 24th seed Yulia Putintseva (7-5 6-1) over the past week.

Navarro is the narrowest of $1.84 favourites in this one.

Her ability to ride out rough patches in matches so far will hold her in good stead if this one goes deep, but Kasatkina’s consistency and efficiency on serve make a more convincing case.

Alex Michelsen v Alex de Minaur
9.15pm

Back de Minaur to Win 3-1 @ $3.80

Giant-killer Alex Michelsen stands in between Alex de Minaur and a maiden quarter-final at his home slam. A showdown with defending champ and world No.1 Jannik Sinner likely awaits the victor.

World No.42 Michelsen has reached the Round of 16 for the first time in just his sixth major.

The 20-year-old kicked off with a four-set victory over 11th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, then eliminated James Mccabe in straight sets and thrashed 19th seed Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-7 6-2.

Eighth seed de Minaur, who exited in the AO’s Round of 16 each of the past three years but made the quarters of the other three majors in 2024, has enjoyed a relatively straightforward week.

The 25-year-old cruised past Botic Van de Zandschulp and Tristan Boyer in straight sets, then recovered from an early setback to beat 31st seed Francisco Cerundolo 5-7 7-6 6-3 6-3.

This head-to-head is square at one win apiece after two 2024 clashes. Michelsen upset de Minaur 6-4 6-1 at the Los Cabos Open, before de Minaur carved out a straight-sets French Open victory for the loss of just three games.

Michelsen’s exciting, fearless approach has been a highlight of the tournament’s opening week, but de Minaur’s peerless speed and court coverage – not to mention the vociferous crowd support – should carry him through…even if he does look a little short as a $1.26 favourite.