Third seed Coco Gauff and 11th seed Paul Badosa lock horns in the 2025 Australian Open’s first quarter-final.
The head-to-head is square at three-all, but Gauff won both 2024 encounters at the Rome Masters and in October’s China Open semis – albeit after dropping the first set in both matches.
It’s been a straightforward run for Gauff so far, beating Sofia Kenin, Jodie Burrage and Leylah Annie Fernandez in straight sets, before overcoming some early stumbles to subdue Belinda Bencic 5-7 6-2 6-1 in the Round of 16.
Likewise, Badosa has dropped only one set – to 17th seed Marta Kostyuk in the third round.
The Spaniard has been convincing enough in wins over Wang Xinyu, Talia Gibson and, on Sunday, surprise packet Olga Danilovic in a 6-1 7-6 result.
Badosa is vying for her first Grand Slam semi-final, having lost in the quarters at the 2021 French Open and last year’s US Open.
Gauff is 4-3 in Grand Slam quarter-finals; the 2023 US Open champ reached the semis at the Australian and French Opens last year.
Though Badosa can take some confidence from pushing Gauff all the way in last year’s clashes, the 20-year-old American remains the more athletic, powerful and defensively superior player.
There could be the odd twist and turn, but the $1.26 favourite should get there.
The Australian Open men’s quarter-finals get underway with world No.2 Alexander Zverev taking on 12th-seeded dark horse Tommy Paul.
Paul boasts the significant psychological edge of having won both their clashes so far, at the 2020 Acapulco Open and the 2022 Indian Wells Masters.
The American has warmed to the task in Melbourne after surviving a five-set battle against Chris O’Connell and dropping the first set in a four-set win over Kei Nishikori.
He’s since overwhelmed Spanish pair Roberto Carballes Baena (7-6 6-2 6-0) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (6-1 6-1 6-1).
Zverev has barely been troubled so far, beating Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez and Jacob Fearnley in straight sets by margins of at least six games.
He saw off 14th seed Ugo Humbert in the fourth round on Sunday 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-2.
Paul has played in two grand slam quarter-finals previously, beating Ben Shelton at the 2023 Australian Open and losing to Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year.
Zverev has an impressive 8-5 record at this stage of majors and made the Australian Open semis in 2020 and ’24.
Paul is a better chance here than his $3.20 underdog price suggest and has the skillset to disrupt Zverev, but the German’s superior serve is set to prove a decisive difference.
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka’s seemingly unstoppable march towards a third straight Australian Open title continues in the quarter-finals on Tuesday night against 27th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Pavlyuchenkova has a 2-1 lead against Sabalenka, but they have not met since her three-set win on her way to the 2021 French Open final.
That tournament was the only time Pavlyuchenkova has been beyond the quarters at a major, having lost at that stage on seven occasions – including at the 2017 and 2019-20 Australian Opens.
But after a disappointing season at grand slam level in 2024, the 33-year-old has been superb, following up three-set wins over Yue Yuan and Anastasia Potapova with straight-sets thrashings of Laura Siegemund and 18th seed Donna Vekic.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, is yet to drop a set in disposing of Sloane Stephens, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson and 14th seed Mirra Andreeva, who she crushed 6-1 6-2 in a devastating Round of 16 performance.
The Belarusian is 9-1 in Grand Slam quarter-finals and has reached the final of the last four hard-court majors, winning three titles.
It’s hard to see $1.09 favourite Sabalenka not chalking up a 19th straight Australian Open victory in convincing style, though Pavlyuchenkova can cover.
Strap in for potentially the match of the tournament as 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic and four-time Grand Slam winner Carlos Alcaraz meet in the AO quarter-finals.
World No.3 Alcaraz, the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champ, is aiming for a complete career set of slams but has not been past the quarters in Melbourne.
Djokovic has won 37 of his last 38 AO matches, with the only loss coming against Jannik Sinner in last year’s semis.
Djokovic has his nose in front 4-3 in an absorbing three-year rivalry with Alcaraz after winning three of their last four matches.
In 2024, Alcaraz beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final for the second straight year, but Djokovic turned the tables on clay in the Paris Olympics final.
The megastar duo have only met twice on hard courts, with Djokovic winning both – in the Cincinnati Masters final and the ATP Finals semis in 2023 and eight of their 22 sets on all surfaces have gone to a tiebreak.
Djokovic continues to defy Father Time: the 37-year-old warmed up with four-set wins over Nishesh Basvareddy and Jaime Faria in the first two rounds, then stepped up a gear to overwhelm seeded opponents Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.
Alcaraz has been similarly dominant, cruising past Alexander Shevchenko and Yishioka Nishioka in straight sets, then beating Nuno Borges in four and 15th seed Jack Draper retired from Sunday’s Round of 16 match while trailing Alcaraz 7-5 6-1.
Djokovic has won 18 of his last 20 grand slam quarter-finals; Alcaraz is 6-3 in his career so far.
The slower conditions later at night work in Djokovic’s favour – the most successful player in Australian Open history is a compelling underdog in what shapes as a classic.
Anything less than a total of 40-plus games would be a surprise.