South Australia has become somewhat boring and widely irrelevant at federal elections in recent cycles with very few seats genuinely in play.
Of the 10 seats in play, Labor has a lock on the five seats of Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin and Spence with the ALP $1.03 or shorter in each.
The Coalition have a lock on Barker while Grey remains a safe seat despite veteran Rowan Ramsey retiring after holding the seat since 2007.
Betting suggests there is a viable third-party candidate – which there is not – so the $1.10 is a bet for those with the wherewithal for the shorts.
The seat of Mayo is another opportunity for shorts punters to get involved.
The former safe Liberal seat has been held by Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie since 2016.
She has a big margin over the Liberals but the ALP actually jumped them last time so the margin looks thinner than it really is. She can be bet with confidence.
That leaves the ALP-held seat of Boothby and the Coalition-held seat of Sturt as the only seats truly in play in South Australia.
Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost currently holds Boothby by a margin of 3.3% and the winds of this election along with an expected sophomore surge suggest she is on her way to victory.
A recent seat poll conducted by Accent/RedBridge has Labor up by 10 points.
The seat is interesting though in the fact high-profile former candidate and Sky News talent Nicolle Flint is re-contesting the seat.
A seat since 1972, Boothby had gone Liberal every election prior to 2022.
Flint did not contest that election so the seat is a big watch.
Labor should win with the last three elections trending the ALP’s way, happy to take the $1.40.
The most compelling seat unquestionably is that of Sturt.
Held by the Coalition since 1972 and held by Labor for just two terms since its inception in 1949, Sturt has long been a Liberal stronghold.
However they held on a margin of just 0.5% in 2022 and it is very much in play this time around.
MP James Stevens has not been an overly impressive performer, the Green vote jumped 5.2% last election and candidate Katie McCusker is back for her third crack and the teals have identified the seat with Climate 200, putting money into local GP Verity Cooper.
The most recent poll would be alarming for the Coalition too with Labor getting 55% of the 2PP. Labor looks a quality bet at $2.75.
Forecast
ALP – 7
LIB – 2
IND – 1
Recommended Bets
Labor To Win Boothby @ $1.40 (6 units)
Coalition To Win Grey @ $1.10 (10 units)
Centre Alliance To Win Mayo @ $1.20 (10 units)
Labor To Win Sturt @ $2.75 (5 units)