Western Australia continues to grow in importance when it comes to federal elections and that has seen WA pick up a new seat this election with the seat of Bullwinkel centring on Perth’s outer Eastern Suburbs.
When it comes to locks, Labor has eight seats in the bag with no indicators suggesting any of Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle, Hasluck, Pearce, Perth or Swan are in danger of swapping hands.
All are held on margins of 8.8% or larger.
Pearce and Swan have narrowed between the last election and most recent seat polls but those polls were taken in March before the tide had swung noticeably against the Coalition.
The $1.15 in Pearce and $1.11 in Swan are bets that can be taken for those with a predisposition for the shorts.
The Coalition should be safe, at least according to betting, in four seats with prices of $1.20 or shorter for a Liberal win in Canning, Durack, Forrest and O’Connor.
All are on relatively thin margins for such short prices. Canning is perhaps the most vulnerable – and worth a ticket for Labor at $3.90.
Andrew Hastie is a popular member but following redistributions the margin is down to 1.3% and polling has Labor within striking distance.
The new seat of Bullwinkel is a fascinating affair that melds the outer Eastern Suburbs of Perth with some rural areas sees a three-way contest that will be fiercely contested.
Live exports is the central issue and the Liberal Party are confident they will win.
Note that betting the Coalition adds in the live runner National candidate too.
This is a super bet.
The other three seats of interest are Curtin, Moore and Tangney.
Curtin is currently held by Teal independent Kate Chaney but she is facing a torrid media campaign against her.
The positivity around the teals has taken a knock this time in and on a razor-thin margin the traditional Liberal seat looks value to return to the fold at $1.90.
We don’t have a bet in Moore, which looks a complete mess.
Ian Goodenough won for the Liberal Party in 2022 but lost preselection this time around, being deemed by the party not good enough.
The Coalition should win the seat but Goodenough is running as an independent and Labor have eaten into a thin margin according to the most recent poll.
Tangney is a seat the Liberal Party is targeting to win back and it has long been a Liberal seat but enigmatic MP Sam Lim, a dolphin trainer who speaks 10 languages, has done a strong job and Labor will be confident of retaining.
The $1.41 is no spoil but Labor should retain.
Forecast
ALP – 10
LIB – 6
IND – 0
Recommended Bets
Coalition To Win Bullwinkel @ $2.00 (7 units)
Labor To Win Canning @ $3.90 (1 unit)
Coalition To Win Curtin @ $1.90 (4 units)
Labor To Win Pearce @ $1.15 (10 units)
Labor To Win Swan @ $1.11 (10 units)