We are reaching D-Day for Election 2025.
Here are the 19 seats to watch on Election Night that will determine the election.
Bennelong (NSW) – LIB 0.04%
The ALP won this seat at the last election but the redistribution has made this seat notionally Liberal.
John Howard’s old seat looked a likely Liberal win but candidate Scott Yung has endured a number of scandals and is fast letting the ALP back into the race.
Prediction: Labor ($1.87)
Gilmore (NSW) – ALP 0.2%
Gilmore in a natural Liberal seat that was destroyed by internal feuding in 2019.
Andrew Constance made huge inroads in 2022 with a 12.1% swing and looks a great bet to win the seat back for the Coalition in 2025 when he runs again.
Prediction: Coalition ($1.70)
Lyons (TAS) – ALP 0.9%
Labor have held this seat since 2016 but even though the sitting member is retiring, former Tasmanian state leader Rebecca White is running.
The Libs topped the most recent YouGov poll but Labor should be favoured.
Prediction: Labor ($2.00)
Bullwinkel (WA) – ALP 3.3%
The new seat of Bullwinkel is a compelling affair that blends the outer Eastern Suburbs of Perth with some rural areas sees a three-way contest that will be fiercely contested.
Live exports is the central issue and the Coalition are confident they will win.
Prediction: Coalition ($2.00)
Curtin (WA) – IND 1.3% v LIB
Curtin is currently held by Teal independent Kate Chaney but she is facing a vicious media campaign against her.
The teals don’t have the momentum of the last election and on a razor-thin margin the traditional Liberal seat looks value to go back to the Coalition at $1.90.
Prediction: Coalition ($1.90)
Leichhardt (QLD) – LIB 3.5%
Warren Entsch, who has held Leichhardt almost exclusively since 1996, leaves behind a large personal vote that could be crucial here.
The polling suggests the Coalition are on track for victory but if this does fall then Labor will win with a majority.
Prediction: Labor ($2.50)
McEwen (VIC) – ALP 3.8%
The Coalition are favoured to pick up McEwen but Rob Mitchell has done a strong job retaining the seat since 2010 and the most recent poll has him ahead.
Given how Victoria votes, betting in this one is a surprise.
Prediction: Labor ($1.95)
Chisholm (VIC) – ALP 3.3%
Chisholm has had its margin halved by the abolition of Higgins and Peter Dutton has courted the Chinese vote hard.
This is a seat the Coalition will be confident of picking up but Labor has surged this week and should retain.
Prediction: Labor ($1.80)
Sturt (SA) – LIB 0.5%
If Labor claims Sturt, we are in for an absolute rout.
Held by the Coalition since 1972 and held by Labor for just two terms since its inception in 1949, Sturt has long been a Liberal stronghold.
MP James Stevens has not been an overly impressive performer.
The most recent poll would be alarming for the Coalition too with Labor getting 55%.
Prediction: Labor ($2.65)
Aston (VIC) – ALP 3.6%
Peter Dutton has made numerous visits and polls have the Coalition ahead of the election and the Liberal Party is confident of a gain.
But the value is with Labor at $4 holding firm after the unpleasantness of Alan Tudge’s retirement.
Prediction: Labor ($4.00)
Paterson (NSW) – ALP 2.6%
Paterson has a Labor margin of 2.6% but despite close polling looks a reliable Labor play following the redistribution.
The Labor primary appears to have dropped but Paterson would need to go against state-wide polling of around 7% to go down.
The $1.70 is a great play.
Prediction: Labor ($1.70)
Brisbane (QLD) – GRN 3.7% v LNP
Brisbane is a genuine three-way contest with the same candidates from 2022.
The Greens claimed the seat after finishing third on primary vote last time.
Peter Dutton’s nuclear strategy is unlikely to help win the seat the Coalition held from 2010-2022.
Labor have been heavily bet.
Prediction: Labor ($2.00)
Ryan (QLD) – GRN 2.6% v LNP
Since its inception in 1949, the seat has been in Coalition hands for all but four years.
It is one of the wealthiest electorates in Australia and the green vote dipped significantly in the recent state election.
This seat should return so the $1.85 looks an outstanding bet.
Prediction: Coalition ($1.85)
Kooyong (VIC) – IND 2.2% v LIB
Monique Ryan looks to be in a lot of trouble in Kooyong after being the face of the teal movement last time with a redistribution likely to work well against her.
An April poll has her behind 52-48 and there is clear panic in the Ryan camp.
Prediction: Coalition ($1.73)
Cowper (NSW) – NAT 2.4% v IND
Cowper looks a very good bet to change hands with Teal Caz Heise ahead in most polls across the last year.
She ran close in 2022 and will only get closer this time.
She has been a huge mover in betting this week.
Prediction: Independent ($1.75)
Bradfield (NSW) – LIB 2.5% v IND
The Coalition are becoming increasingly pessimistic about fending off the challenge from Teal independent Nicolette Boele, who will run again after pushing the Coalition to 4.2% last time.
Redistribution has halved that margin and the retirement of long-term MP Paul Fletcher futhers her chances.
Prediction: Independent ($1.83)
Wannon (VIC) – LIB 3.8% v IND
Wannon in Western Victoria has independent Alex Dyson making a third run at the seat.
Dyson polled 57% in an April YouGov poll and his strong ground campaign looks enough to overcome his deficit.
Prediction: Independent ($1.95)
Wills (VIC) – ALP 4.6% v GRN
Wills looks a great chance to go with well-known former Victorian member Samantha Ratnam running for the Greens.
She has been campaigning strongly for over a year and is another play at odds-against.
Prediction: Greens ($2.20)