Queensland has become critical to forming government over the last five-or-so elections with changing demographics and an increasingly volatile electorate have put the state front and centre come election night.
There are 30 seats up for grabs with the current state of play seeing the Coalition hold 21 divisions with the ALP five and the Greens three with one independent.
Queensland has historically been Australia’s most conservative state and they are also one that supports their own, meaning a strong Queensland showing will be the foundation of any Coalition success.
Bonner, Bowman, Capricornia, Dawson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Longman, Maranoa, Moncrieff, Petrie, Wide Bay and Wright are all uber-conservative seats on margins north of 3% that has the Coalition at $1.09 or shorter.
That is a starting point of 18 seats for the Coalition, who are only vulnerable to an unlikely independent of the right wing nature.
Lilley, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin are all safe Labor seats.
Veteran Graham Perrett is retiring from Moreton but none of the four seats are in any real danger of being lost.
Kennedy will be Bob Katter’s as long as he wants it – and he will presumably pass it onto an heir.
Bar one term, the Katter family has held the seat since 1966.
That leaves seven seats up for grabs – and arguably the most compelling are the three inner-city Brisbane seats claimed by the Greens in 2022: Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan.
Betting has the Greens behind in both Brisbane and Ryan and considering the lack of roots the Greens have in Queensland (Queensland had never elected a Green to the House and had only one elected Greens senator) the betting seems correct.
Their vote did not crater at the state election, but it dropped notably.
Brisbane is a genuine three-way contest with the same candidates from 2022 running it back.
The Greens claimed the seat after finishing third on primary vote last time.
Peter Dutton’s nuclear strategy is unlikely to help win the seat the Coalition held from 2010-2022.
That leaves Labor as the play at $2.60.
One of the best bets in Queensland this election is betting the LNP to reclaim the seat of Ryan.
Since its inception in 1949, the seat has been in Coalition hands for all but four years.
It is one of the wealthiest electorates in Australia and the green vote dipped significantly in the recent state election.
This seat should return so the $1.85 looks an outstanding bet.
Griffith is on the other end of the spectrum – a leftwing seat that has gone Liberal just once since 1977.
The former seat of Kevin Rudd was once an ALP lock but was pinched by the Greens in 2022.
Max Chandler-Mather is the most high-profile of the Brisbane Greens MP trio and this kind of seat – young, wealthy, socially progressive – that Labor is going to struggle to win back for the Greens.
The seat of Blair is held by Labor on a margin of 5.2%. Polling in mid-February and late-March had Labor marginally ahead.
Veteran Shayne Neumann has done a good job at withstanding swings against Labor – and there is unlikely to be anything notable this time around.
A weak LNP candidate should see Neumann retain with the $1.25 a play for those who can stomach the shorts.
The seats of Dickson, Leichhardt and McPherson are all Coalition held seats they are expected to retain – but have some risk.
Dickson is held by PM-hopeful Peter Dutton on a margin of just 1.7% but he has held the seat on a tight margin since 2001.
Recent polls have been favourable to Dutton and ot would be stunning to see him lose.
Snap up the $1.50 on offer.
Leichhardt, centred on Cairns, and McPherson, on the Gold Coast, both see longstanding and popular MPs retired.
Warren Entsch has held Leichhardt since 1996 bar a brief retirement between 2007 and 2010.
He leaves behind a large personal vote and a swing to Labor of 3.5% would win them the seat.
That is worth a small ticket.
McPherson sees Karen Andrews retire but she leaves behind a safety net of 9.3%.
The Coalition has never lost this long-existing seat and that won’t change in 2025.
The $1.40 is an insane price.
Forecast
ALP – 7
LIB – 21
IND – 2
Recommended Bets
Labor To Win Blair @ $1.25 (10 units)
Labor To Win Brisbane @ $2.60 (2.5 units)
Coalition To Win Dickson @ $1.50 (10 units)
Greens To Win Griffith @ $1.55 (6 units)
Labor To Win Leichhardt @ $2.50 (2 units)
Coalition To Win McPherson @ $1.40 (10 units)
Coalition To Win Ryan @ $1.85 (8 units)