The State of Origin period has already wrought havoc on the NRL, with representative-reduced heavyweights crashing to convincing losses and upsets occurring right across the weekend in Round 12.
Clean sweep for underdogs
With Origin absentees clouding the round’s match-ups, all five outsiders got up in the truncated Round 12 scheduled.
Ladder-leading Canterbury, with three Origin players out on top of a heavy injury toll, was trounced 44-8 by the Dolphins at home on Thursday night, while 6.5-point underdog Parramatta defied the loss of NSW duo Mitch Moses and Zac Lomax to thrash a DCE-less Manly 30-10 on Friday.
Stripped of five Blues stars, Penrith’s skeleton crew crashed 25-6 to struggling Newcastle (who had a 7.5-point start) on Saturday, before Sydney Roosters – 9.5-point underdogs – bucked the Origin toll trend to blow in-form Cronulla away 42-16 in Gosford.
In a contender for the ugliest game of 2025 so far, $1.77 home favourites the Warriors were edged out 16-10 by Canberra in a top-four showdown in the Auckland wet.
The Warriors, who were missing NSW prop Mitch Barnett and suspended front-row partner James Fisher-Harris, competed admirably with the vaunted Raiders pack and led 8-0.
But in a spiteful encounter plagued by 24 errors, 17 penalties, 13 set restarts and three sin-bins, the visitors scored the only try of the second half to join the Warriors in equal-second – two points shy of the Bulldogs.
The 11-point gap between first and last place is the second-lowest in the past decade after 12 rounds.
Feast or famine for Dogs
Canterbury leads the NRL outright with a 9-2 record, conceding less than 13 points on average in their wins.
But the magnitude of the Bulldogs’ two defeats so far has put a question mark over their premiership credentials, spiralling to a 44-8 loss to the up-and-down Dolphins four weeks after going down 42-18 to a Broncos side that hasn’t won since.
The Bulldogs were missing Origin trio Stephen Crichton, Max King and Kurt Mann, suspended pair Jacob Preston and Sitili Tupouniua, and the injured Jacob Kiraz and Jaeman Salmon – but on paper they still shaped as worthy favourites.
The Dolphins, who were without star fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, forward leaders Tom Gilbert and Daniel Saifiti, and valuable trio Max Plath, Jeremy Marshall-King and Ray Stone, ran in seven tries – including five to the Bulldogs’ zero in the second half.
The Bulldogs made a measly 1,091 running metres and coughed up 16 errors.
Nevertheless, they remain on the second line of betting at $4.50 as they look ahead to two byes in the next four weeks, either side of Accor Stadium assignments against Parramatta and Souths.
Manly at crossroads after Parra pounding
With only Daly Cherry-Evans on Origin duty – and against a Parramatta side missing its linchpin, Mitch Moses – Manly’s prospects took a major dip in the form of a 30-10 loss at CommBank Stadium.
The early-season studs have now lost five of their last seven matches and – in a concerning prospect for 2026 – looked rudderless with Cherry-Evans out, with Tom Trbojevic and Luke Brooks unable to step up and take control.
Now ninth on the ladder, the Sea Eagles’ next three matches before the bye, at home against the Broncos, and away to the Knights and Titans, shape as a make-or-break period for the $21 premiership chances’ teetering campaign.
The Eels, meanwhile, have won four of their last seven and are emerging as a finals smoky in such a tight competition, now just one win behind eighth despite sitting 15th on the ladder.
No.7 fill-in Dean Hawkins had a memorable night with four try assists, while Isaiah Iongi continues to thrive at fullback and Junior Paulo wound back the clock in his 250th NRL game with a 200-metre display up front.
The Eels are a juicy $8 to make the playoffs.
Origin toll threatens Panthers’ reign
A few mid-season wobbles are nothing new for the Penrith juggernaut given the club’s massive contribution to the NSW Origin cause.
But coming into the representative period with just three wins on the board has put the acid on the four-time champs – and a convincing 25-6 loss to a Knights outfit that had won just one of its last eight games has left the Panthers alone on the last rung of the ladder.
The erosion of the Panthers’ depth over the past few seasons was on full display, with a dreadful start allowing the Knights to run in four tries – three of them to second-rower Dylan Lucas – in the first 23 minutes.
Given their precarious position, coach Ivan Cleary may not have the luxury of resting any of his Blues quintet, as he has regularly done in previous years, from a suddenly massive derby against Parramatta four days after the series opener.
The Panthers have blown out to $26 in the premiership stakes and are $2.60 to avoid becoming the first defending champs to miss the finals (discounting the Storm’s salary cap punishment in 2010) since the 2006 Tigers.
Revived Roosters stuff Sharks
Written off after a dismal 1-4 start to the season, things are suddenly looking bright for Sydney Roosters after three wins and a gallant loss to the Bulldogs from their last four starts.
The Roosters, with Angus Crichton, Connor Watson, Lindsay Collins, Spencer Leniu and Robert Toia selected for the Origin series opener – on top of injuries to key forwards Naufahu Whyte and Nat Butcher – made a big statement by thrashing surging Cronulla 42-16.
Young halves Hugo Savala and Sandon Smith, in a timely showing amid reports of Daly Cherry-Evans’ reported move to Bondi Junction in 2026, were the stars of the Central Coast show. No.7 Savala was especially impressive in his ninth NRL game with a try and two try assists.
It was a baffling display from the Sharks, however, after a 5-1 run had culminated in a gutsy win over premiership favourites the Storm only seven days earlier.
Without any Origin absentees, the Sharks leaked tries at regular intervals – seven in all – in easily their poorest defensive effort of the season.
Still on the third line in the title market at $8, they get a Round 13 bye to ponder what went wrong before consecutive home games against the Warriors and Dragons.
The Roosters, into $2.40 to make the Top 8, host the second-placed Raiders on Sunday.