NRL Round 14 began with a spectacular Newcastle comeback to sink Manly, but the remainder of the weekend was marked by blowouts – with only one further match decided by less than 18 points.
Dark horse statements, magic milestone performances and one of the most hyped mid-season club debuts of all time made for a memorable round.
Top four break clear
In a wildly unpredictable competition with precious few out-and-out heavyweight teams, a clearly defined has finally emerged as the 2025 regular season ticked over the halfway mark.
Simmering premiership favourite Melbourne ($2.60) notched back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 6, a clinical 38-14 beatdown of North Queensland at AAMI Park while spine stars Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant leading the way.
Despite the loss of NSW Origin front-rower and co-captain Mitch Barnett for the season, and elite hooker Wayde Egan on gameday, the Warriors made an enormous statement with a 40-10 demolition of highly-rated Cronulla in Sydney.
The Warriors’ seventh win in eight games was as much driven by breakout tyros Demetric Vaimauga and Jacob Laban as it was consistent headliners Luke Metcalf and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, while the club has now won five straight games in NSW for the first time in its history.
Keeping pace with the Warriors – the big movers in the title market into $9.00 – in equal-second on the ladder is fellow surprise packet Canberra ($8.00).
Celebrating Josh Papalii’s record-breaking 319th appearance in the lime green, the Raiders recovered from a 12-0 deficit to subdue South Sydney 36-12 – with Ethan Strange scoring the slow-starting hosts’ first two tries and Papalii bringing the house down with two tries in the latter stages.
On King’s Birthday Monday, Canterbury ($4.25) retained their two-point buffer at the top of the table by seeing off Parramatta’s plucky challenge. A three-try surge in the last 20 minutes turned a tenuous 14-12 lead into a convincing 30-12 victory for the Bulldogs.
The slumping Sharks – the only other team with a positive record – head the chasing pack, four points adrift of the fourth-placed Storm. The enigmatic Cowboys are a point back in sixth, just in front of a six-team logjam tied on 14 points.
Walsh return changes Broncos’ trajectory
Adam Reynolds was the man of the moment in Brisbane’s 44-14 thrashing of Gold Coast as he brought up 300 NRL appearances, but Reece Walsh’s return left no doubt as to who is the backline X-factor capable of keeping the Broncos in contention.
Though he endured an erratic start to the season form-wise, Walsh’s knee injury absence was central to an alarming 1-6 slide.
A try assist and a dazzling late double from the brilliant No.1 in the eight-try rout had the Broncos looking like the freewheeling side that started 2025 with four wins in the first five rounds.
The gap between the Broncos’ best and worst is far too great – but if coach Michael Maguire can engineer a way to bridge that gap there’s no reason the $17 premiership hopes can’t rapidly surge back into the title conversation.
Gummy Sharks at crossroads
Cronulla had gradually built respect as a fringe title contender again with a 5-1 run that culminated in a convincing 30-14 away win over Manly and a courageous 31-26 home upset of Melbourne.
But in all-too-familiar fashion, Craig Fitzgibbon’s side’s credentials are in tatters after bookending their Round 13 bye with a 42-16 loss to an Origin-stricken Sydney Roosters side in Gosford and a 40-10 defeat at home to a Warriors side dealing with major personnel setbacks.
The Sharks clawed back to trail the Warriors just 12-10 at halftime and were apparently running downhill, before conceding five tries and scoring none after the break.
Addin Fonua-Blake disappointed against his former club, while high-profile pair Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall were comprehensively outplayed by their former reserve-grade pivot Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita.
With no players on Origin duty, this should be the time for the Sharks to make hay – and a vital local derby on a short turnaround against St George Illawarra looms on Thursday, before daunting road trips to Brisbane and Melbourne before their next bye.
Cronulla offers dubious value on the fifth line of premiership betting at $15.
Dark horse Dolphins
Another team difficult to get a genuine read on in 2025 after an 0-4 start then a three-match giant-killing winning streak before slumping again, the Dolphins have resurfaced as a potential bolter in this wide-open finals race.
The NRL’s youngest club have scored 100 points either side of their Round 13 bye, overwhelming depleted ladder leaders Canterbury 44-8 and obliterating St George Illawarra 56-6.
At just 21, Isaiya Katoa is rocketing towards elite No.7 status – providing rare poise and direction along with the requisite big plays.
Katoa’s control gives pinch-hitters Kodi Nikorima and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow license to inject themselves at will, while Herbie Farnworth remains at the forefront of the world’s best centre conversation and an unheralded pack that struggled early in the campaign is warming to the task.
The Dolphins are a juicy $41 in the title market and need to prove their ability to grind teams out in close games, but they’re compelling value at $2.00 to earn a maiden Top 8 finish in 2025.
Tricky puzzle remains for Galvin-ised Bulldogs
The hype around Lachlan Galvin’s club debut off the bench threatened to derail Canterbury’s concentration in a Monday afternoon blockbuster against Parramatta in front of almost 60,000 fans at Accor Stadium.
Galvin’s injection couldn’t have panned out much better for the Bulldogs, however, with the controversial teenaged playmaker coming on with 23 minutes to go – and helping turn a 14-12 lead into a 30-12 victory.
Walking headline Galvin capped a solid cameo with the match-sealing try in the 73rd minute.
But the question over where everyone fits into the spine logjam at Belmore is still unanswered. Galvin and Matt Burton are both better suited to five-eighth, while Toby Sexton – who has been integral to the Bulldogs’ ladder-leading drive – is the only genuine No.7 in the squad.
Sexton was moved to hooker when Galvin came on, with fellow reportedly unwanted and disgruntled star Reed Mahoney benched.
It’s an awkward riddle for coach Cameron Ciraldo to solve at a crucial time of the year – and one that will come under incessant outside scrutiny.