The tenth British and Irish Lions tour of Australia will reach its peak over the next three weekends with the Test Matches against the Wallabies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney.
Suncorp Stadium is the venue for the first meeting of the two sides this Saturday night, where they played out a tense contest that ended in dramatic circumstances.
Trailing 23-21 with time expiring, Kurtley Beale lined up a long range attempt at a penalty to win the game for the Australians, only to slip on Suncorp’s churned up surface and send his kick short and wide left.
Quite a lot has changed on both sides since that night, as you would expect over 12 years with a new breed of Wallabies chasing a signature moment in the coaching tenure of Joe Schmidt.
Team News
Joe Schmidt has opted to roll the dice with his team selection for Saturday night, most notably at the critical flyhalf position.
Reds number 10 Tom Lynagh gets the nod to replace the injured Noah Lolesio, despite just three Wallabies caps and some real concerns over his ability to stand up to punishment after a couple of heavy hits saw him miss time during the Super Rugby season.
If he can hold up though, his goalkicking could be huge for the Wallabies and their ability to keep it close.
Perhaps the best counter to the physicality of the Lions will be the forward pack matching up with two changes from the warm up test.
Matt Faessler will get the nod at hooker from Dave Porecki while Nick Champion de Crespigny is set to make his debut in the number six jersey replacing Langi Gleeson.
The Lions will unsurprisingly be fielding a strong squad, such is the luxury of selecting from four national teams.
Any hopes of capitalising on a player from the struggling Welsh team appear to have been dashed with flanker Jac Morgan, the only Welsh player in the touring party, losing his battle for the job to England’s Tom Curry.
Scottish trio Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones will form the interior part of the backline and that cohesion working with familiar faces will make that group incredibly potent with the ball in hand.
Total Points
If you have been following the current tour, you would know that scoring has not been an issue at all for the Lions.
Since arriving on Australian shores, they have put up 54, 52, 36 and 48 in their warm up matches with the only slow down coming in Sydney when they faced the Waratahs, still winning that one 21-10.
The same cannot be said for the Australians though, with their one warm up Test against Fiji producing a tight and tense tussle that ended 21-18.
However in that game the scoreline was kept down not because of a lack of attacking intent from either side (especially Fiji in the second half), rather a lack of execution which can be expected given the timing of that fixture.
Either Australia is going to be a much sharper outfit than in that game, or they are going to make the same mistakes and get punished by a much more ruthless and well drilled side.
Either way, there should be a plethora of points.
Over 48.5 Points @ $1.85
Player Markets
It’s going to be a busy night for the forward packs, especially with the Suncorp surface still struggling after the summer concerts, heavy usage across three football codes and the inclement weather that has plagued South-East Queensland.
But two players who know this venue very well are also two key figures for the home team in Reds duo Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight.
They both crossed against Fiji, with Wilson scoring the game winning try in the dying minutes.
While he might have only scored twice during the Reds season, Wilson is going to be leading by example and will be a threat every time the Wallabies get inside the five metre line from a pick and drive.
As for the Lions, their backs have had a fruitful tour thus far, especially when they took on the Reds.
Tommy Freeman bagged a pair of tries that night and he is the pick of the bunch for this game.
Harry Wilson Anytime Try Scorer @ $4.40
Tommy Freeman Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.90
Best Bet
Let’s not kid ourselves, even the most optimistic Australian rugby fan has to realise the monumental task any Wallabies team has trying to upset the Lions.
Especially this one which is not at the level of the 2001 golden era who went hammer and tongs across three tests.
But they are good enough to run with them for 80 minutes, Joe Schmidt has a handful of players who are better than their opposite number including the Wallabies captain Harry Wilson.
Not to mention it has been a bruising tour for the Lions already with Andy Farrell forced to fly in some extra players to cover for the injuries.
Add in the motivation of playing on a stage in what is for every Aussie player outside of James O’Connor, a once in a career opportunity.
The Lions can and should win this game but they will have to work for it.
Lions to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.60
Same Game Multi
Lions to Win, Over 40.5 Points, Tom Wright and Sione Tuipulotu Anytime Tryscorer @ $15.93