While the Football World Cup consumes our thoughts, Round 17 of the AFL is upon us with a grand final rematch and potential finals preview kicking things off.
Sydney will be looking to return to form after lowering their colours last week, while we think there’s a bit of value for Brisbane, Collingwood and even North.
Geelong vs Brisbane Predictions
Last year’s grand finalists Geelong and Brisbane will kick off a full slate of AFL games this weekend when they meet at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night.
After dismantling the Lions by 41 points at the Gabba in Round 10, the Cats have maintained a spot in the top four despite losing three of their past four games.
The Lions are surging with three wins on the trot, including a dominant 43-point win over the Swans last weekend, and could usurp their opponents with victory here.
Bailey Smith (illness), Brad Close (ankle) and Tom Stewart (concussion) should all be cleared to start for the Cats as they attempt to make it 11 straight wins at home.
$2.70 is a juicy price about the Lions and the line (+14.5) is fantastic value.
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs Predictions
Highly rated premiership fancies Sydney will look to bounce back against the Western Bulldogs this week after lowering their colours and going down to Brisbane by 43 points.
The Swans, who are still a game and a half clear in second on the ladder, failed to fire despite a 28-disposals and four-goal performance from Chad Warner.
Hayden McLean should return in place of an injured Joel Amartey up forward, while their star-studded midfield brigade will respond after getting smashed 46-33 at clearance.
The Dogs will be eyeing off a top six spot if they can cause an upset as $2.90 outsiders, with Cody Weightman expected to return after being managed prior to their bye.
Sydney has won each of their last eight home matches and it would surprise if they didn’t extend it to nine.
West Coast vs Adelaide Predictions
At $1.18 with Ladbrokes, there’s no doubt Adelaide are expected to bounce back when they play West Coast at Optus Stadium on Saturday.
The Crows were poor to say the least in last weekend’s Showdown against the Power, going down by 26 points.
Their midfield was annihilated by Zak Butters (37 disposals) and Jason Horne-Francis (29 & 1 goal), beaten 42-22 in clearances, including 16-6 at centre clearances.
As for the Eagles, they’ve now lost three in a row and sit in 16th spot on the ladder.
Mini McQualter’s men have certainly made inroads as a unit this season, but there’s a fear this one could be a total blowout against a Crows side needing a big scalp.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Predictions
Despite the difference in the market, Hawthorn and Melbourne will clash in one of the better games of the round.
The Hawks (3rd) currently sit a game and a half above Melbourne (7th) on the ladder, but it was the Dees who ran out surprise 120-81 victors when the two sides met in Round 10.
Sam Mitchell’s men have certainly gone to another level since then with the return of Will Day, who alongside Jai Newcombe and Cam McKenzie, now present as one of the best midfields in the competition.
Hawthorn has won each of their last 12 matches at University of Tasmania Stadium, which could prove the difference this time around.
GWS Giants vs Fremantle Predictions
The Orange Tsunami (more like a waft at this point) will undertake the toughest task in Aussie Rules right now when they face off with the Purple Haze at Manuka Oval on Saturday.
The Giants lost their third consecutive game over the weekend when going down to Hawthorn by 14 points, and matters worsened with injuries to Max Gruzewski (knee), Brent Daniels (calf) and Jesse Hogan (finger).
The Dockers have no such issues, with 14 straight wins and seemingly a full list to choose from.
The ladder leaders demolished Gold Coast by 51 points thanks to four goals from Michael Frederick and more domination from Andrew Brayshaw (29 & 1), Murphy Reid (28) and Shai Bolton (26).
GWS has lost each of its last three matches by a margin of 1-24 points, but we’re thinking this could be worse for Adam Kingsley and his men.
Gold Coast vs Collingwood Predictions
After being favourites for the premiership earlier in the season, it’s safe to say Gold Coast have fallen in a deep, dark hole and are currently $51 alongside Carlton and Melbourne.
Dimma’s men were awful in their 80-29 loss to Fremantle, with their three goals coming from 37.5% efficiency inside 50 (they average 49.7%) and just four marks inside 50 – down from their 11.5 season average.
On the flip side, Collingwood presents a bit of value at $2.35 as they ride a two-game winning streak and Brownlow Medal-winning form from Nick Daicos.
They did what they needed against the Tigers, running out 34-point winners on the back of Daicos’ 37 disposals.
Brayden Maynard is doing his utmost to earn a recall from injury, and we’re liking the value of the underdogs in this one.
Richmond vs Carlton Predictions
Can Richmond end the Blues’ run?
The short answer is ‘unlikely’ because the Tigers are awful this season, but they do hold a strong recent record with a four-point loss in Round 1 this year coming after a 13-point win over the Blues in 2025.
The Tigers rank last for points scored and points allowed this season, with their most recent hit-out a 34-point loss to the Pies.
Tom Lynch will be an important inclusion if he is cleared of a fractured larynx.
As for the Blues, they are flying with six-straight wins and a spot in the top 10 beckoning.
Josh Fraser has excelled as interim coach since Michael Voss’ departure, and it should be a comfortable path to seven in a row this weekend.
Take note of George Hewett, who has recorded 26+ disposals in each of Carlton’s last eight matches against opponents that were ranked in the bottom four.
Essendon vs St Kilda Predictions
St Kilda will be confident of keeping their finals hopes alive when they take on Essendon at Marvel Stadium.
It’s been a rollercoaster year for a Saints side who were meant to improve after another season under the Boss, but they’ve ultimately only managed six wins and sit below Carlton on the ladder.
They will, however, need to do it without Tom De Koning and Jack Sinclair who both suffered injuries before their bye round.
Essendon suffered their 14th loss from 15 games when going down to the Roos by 14, but they could be bolstered by the potential return of Peter Wright from a knee injury.
Keep Liam Ryan in your multis as he has kicked 3+ goals in three of his last four appearances.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Predictions
Chests out and shoulders back, Port Adelaide will be chock full of confidence when they take on the Roos this Sunday after outplaying the Crows to the tune of 26 points in last week’s Showdown.
Zak Butters strengthened his trade value with 37 disposals in a BOG performance, while Jason Horne-Francis had 29 and kicked one in another dominant display.
North will want to improve from their 14-point win over Essendon, and they should get an immediate injection with the return of Tristan Xerri (jaw).
North Melbourne has lost each of its last 25 away matches when playing with a rest disadvantage, but this one should be closer than the market suggests.