Saturday’s best roughies are in! Read on for Ladbrokes’ top-value outsiders to get behind this weekend.
We were back on track last Saturday with New York Lustre running a brave second in the Group 3 Sir John Monash and our double-figure Each Way pick Ocean Beyond rounding out the Caulfield Race 9 trifecta.
Can we repeat the feat seven days on with some Black-Type racing in Adelaide and Sydney to keep the winter ticking over ahead of the spring.
The “Value Whisperer” speaks! Lucy Henderson’s insider Saturday roughie selections are detailed below.
Rosehill Race 2 (11:50AM AEST) – $120,000 Midway Handicap (1300m)
No. 13 Killer Kerr ($8.50 at time of publish)
KILLER KERR (8) chases a hat-trick in the second on Winter Challenge Day and she’s on the drift which makes her even more appealing for mine.
Peter Green’s five-year-old daughter of Shooting To Win out of Hawkesbury has a decent record at this distance (10:1-2-3) and comes in full of confidence.
She’s a back-to-back winner at her latest two with a big 2.47 length effort over 1300m at Goulburn in mid-June carting a hefty 60.5kg to victory in a BM58 before saluting at Warwick Farm on July 2 in a BM64 against her own kind.
After coming from last on the turn she went on to produce a brilliant finish and win by over a length when also forgotten in the markets on a Heavy (10) track.
Goes well on Slow rated going which she gets this weekend as a fit mare looking hard to knock.
Louise Day, who gave her a peach of a ride saving ground up the inside last time out, knows her well and sticks aboard dropping right back to a very advantageous 52kg.
She’s peaking now, is capable of a brilliant burst the closing stages and looks to still have improvement in her.
Underrated.
EACH WAY.
Rosehill Race 3 (12:25PM AEST) – Listed $120,000 TAB Highway Handicap (1100m)
No. 12 Poseidon’s Son ($12)
POSEIDON’S SON (7) is nice value in an open short-distance sprint here with some good lead-up form suggesting he’s an underrated player
Cody Morgan’s Merchant Navy four-year-old took a while to put it all together but looks to be hitting his stride now.
Broke his maiden status last October by a big margin at Coonabarabran and has been consistent again in easier company this time in.
Won fresh beating CALICO MISS over this distance with 57kg in May building confidence at Inverell before a second in a Class 3 at Tamworth last time out in mid-June when narrowly denied the closing stages.
Does best with his runs spaced, as is the case now, and has been kept fit with a subsequent trial.
Obviously heading to the big city on a Saturday, Black-Type Day he’ll face his challenges, but is third-up and fit with form on Soft tracks.
Jockey Tom Sherry is airborne right now, blinkers come on and he’ll likely be in front taking some running down.
EACH WAY.
Morphettville Parks Race 5 (2:37PM AEST) – Group 3 $150,000 South Australian Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m)
No. 7 Too Much Too Soon ($18 at time of publish)
TOO MUCH TOO SOON (4) is nearing the $20 mark for Adelaide’s feature race on Saturday, and I’m happy to take a slice of that even though she’s a maiden.
Shane Nichols’ Mornington-based filly travels to Morphettville and looks in a lovely position to add to her place rate.
A two-time runner-up from three starts, she’s a daughter of ace sire Too Darn Hot so is bred for success.
After a mid-field finish on debut at Geelong at the start of June she’s quickly improving having posted back-to-back seconds over the past month.
The first of those over the six-furlongs at Geelong had her at 40/1 only to go down a nose off an on-speed run behind LOPE DE LARDO before she headed to Sandown Lakeside on July 2 to cross a half-length off SAVANNAH CHILL in a two-year-old fillies’ handicap over 1300m.
Think she’s been crying out for 1400m, which she gets this weekend, and she’ll be flying back from 58kg last start to 55.5kg back against the boys.
Liam Riordan comes aboard from a good gate four draw in a small field.
Tougher assignment now but see her on pace with the potential to hang on for a top three run at that weight.
PLACE.
Morphettville Parks Race 6 (3:17PM AEST) – $65,000 Sportsbet Jockey Watch Handicap (1550m)
No. 9 Silver Chaos ($41 at time of publish)
SILVER CHAOS (4) is the blowout of my Saturday roughies getting around in the fifth at Morphettville Parks at 40/1 despite coming off a consistent prep.
Fourth-up now, Roslyn Day’s striking Barbados filly broke her maiden status two back at Gawler by over two lengths on a Heavy (8) having boxed on well, before a third – albeit beaten over nine lengths – over 1200m on July 9 at Balaklava with 58kg on her back.
Still, that was a placing and that’s all she needs to do here no matter the margin.
Drops notably in weight to 54kg and drawn to get a dream run with Dylan Caboche in the saddle.
No doubt the 1550m distance is a query, especially as I see her leading from that gate, but think she can hold on again for a potential run in the trifecta at a big price.
PLACE.
Rosehill Race 9 (4:05PM AEST) – Listed $200,000 Winter Challenge (1500m)
No. 9 Fortunate Kiss ($11 at time of publish)
FORTUNATE KISS (2) is a last start winner forgotten in the Rosehill markets on Saturday but not by me!
The six-year-old daughter of Divine Prophet sees both the track and distance for the first time, but she’s been racing well and looks to be building up to this.
Went around at big odds at the Sunshine Coast on July 5 to win the Listed Glasshouse Handicap (1400m) on Caloundra Cup Day and looks to be up to the grade in Sydney now.
Two back, also in Queensland, she was a brave third in Ipswich’s Listed Eye Liner over 1350m behind OUGHTON with 53kg when making up ground from mid-field.
Think she’ll see out the 1500m without a worry and only goes up a half-kilo.
Great barrier two draw with Jay Ford coming aboard.
Gets blinkers on so likely to settle back but think she’ll be there in the finish.
PLACE.
Good luck punters!