If you’re chasing value, you’re in luck – Ladbrokes has found the Saturday roughies that could turn the form guide on its head.
Melbourne hosts the first of its Group 1s on Saturday with an absolutely stacked Memsie Stakes field at Caulfield, and we’ve got our eye on a 17/1 pop that could be here to shock!
Despite a Heavy (10) Randwick track last weekend, the Winx Stakes went ahead, and punters that followed our lead on resuming Sydney Cup champ Arapaho to place at juicy odds should have a little extra in the bank.
Sticking with the Memsie Stakes Day card, and we’ve also got an unbeaten and underrated three-year-old getting around at any old price we’ll be taking Each Way for sure.
There’s also racing action at Rosehill on Saturday, but with our early roughie selections for San Domenico Stakes Day both scratched, we’ll leave the north alone this week!
She’s back and ready to fire! Ladbrokes’ Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson reveals her best roughies in Melbourne – don’t miss what she’s spotted.
Caulfield Race 6 (2:55PM AEST) – Group 3 $200,000 McNeil Stakes (1200m)
No. 6 MCGAW ($8 at time of publish)
MCGAW (10) stood out in the McNeil for mine at 12/1 but apparently a few others have clued on, and he’s been wound into $8.
Still, that’s a good price for a definite Top 3 hope in a cracking race full of last start winners and a few unbeaten youngsters looking to remain so come Saturday arvo.
This Emma-Lee & David Browne trained son of I Am Immortal is one of the 3Yos in the mix yet to taste defeat.
While I think he’ll record his first loss, I do like him for a Place in this.
His debut had him winning at his home track over 1100m by a commanding 3.5 lengths when Lane rode him on 58kg back in late January.
He then came to Caulfield for the lucrative $1 million VOBIS Showdown over six-furlongs – the same track and trip he resumes over this weekend – and the gelding was enormous overcoming gate 13 of 15 to beat Befuddle by a half-length.
Back-to-back winning trials have him fit and firing, he looks forward enough for a big performance fresh, and the fact Lane sticks aboard is a huge plus.
Originally, he was down to resume in the Group 3 Vain Stakes here and I had him in my roughie selections that day before he was ultimately scratched on the eve of due to a minor temperature spike.
His trainers noticed he was “a little dull” on the Friday afternoon, and he turned out to have a bit of temp. While it was nothing too bad, it was enough for them to play it safe not wanting to flatten him and mess up his coming Caulfield Guineas prep.
He bounced right back and was out at Traralgon on August 19 winning a 900m trial like nothing even happened. No signs of that little hiccup slowing him down, and that’s good enough for me.
Wider out in his rescheduled campaign kickoff but proven he can handle a double-digit gate, and with 57kg he is well in this weight-wise.
Lane is in flying form, will get this up-and-comer settled back and ready to run home late from the gate, and the galloper has plenty of upside.
Caulfield Race 8 (4:10PM AEST) – Group 3 $200,000 Cockram Stakes (1200m)
No. 8 DAMASK ROSE ($12 at time of publish)
What an absolutely stand out edition of the Cockram Stakes. Honestly, just about any mare in this field could win without surprise but I like the credentials and value of the Kiwi raider DAMASK ROSE (1) who gets her chance down under to make it a hat-trick.
Mark Walker’s consistent daughter of Savabeel makes her four-year-old debut in the Group 3 having got a charmed run to deny a very good horse in Evaporate and win the inaugural The Kiwi slot race back home last start.
She put 1.5 lengths on him over the 1500m and is deserving of a shot at Australian riches now. Two Australian jump outs since her arrival in Oz have her acclimatised and ready to go.
Barrier one and Blake Shinn, who has ridden her in her three latest across the Tasman, is booked again.
Will be more mature, is proven against nice types and think she’ll win this and maybe something bigger over the spring.
Caulfield Race 9 (4:45PM AEST) – Group 1 $750,000 Memsie Stakes (1400m)
No. 4 HERE TO SHOCK (6)
HERE TO SHOCK (6) is drifting in Memsie Stakes betting out from $14 to $18, but I cannot see why. He’s being absolutely left alone by the punters who are coming for the other stars in this very deep field, but that just makes him more attractive Each Way for those paying attention.
Another eight-year-old warhorse lining up in the field for the Hayes boys, and he isn’t without claims.
The son of former Melbourne Cup winner Shocking is second-up with the fitness edge over many of these runners, and his strike rate two runs in is good (8:3-1-0).
Last prep across the Tasman he was enormous at Te Rapa claiming the Group 1 BCD Group Sprint over this distance by an imposing four lengths.
Back home after that he wasn’t far off Royal Patronage over 1300m at Randwick when runner-up in the Canterbury Stakes.
Fresh, he raced at this track and trip to cross 2.5 lengths behind Private Eye in the Group 2 PB Lawrence which looks a nice form line to follow.
He’ll be fitter for that run, gets a midfield draw to give him options, and Daniel Stackhouse stays on.
One that can be forgotten in betting and overshadowed but for mine is a genuine roughie with upside in a great Group 1 field for exotic selections.
Good luck punters!
For more insider “The Heath” track insights this season, get the lowdown in our The Punters’ Playbook: Caulfield Spring Carnival Deep Dive!