Following the close of nominations for the $10 million Melbourne Cup this week, it’s time to meet the top five favourites for this year’s edition of the ‘Race That Stops a Nation’.
With less than two months between now and the 165th running of the time-honoured, two-mile classic, the futures Melbourne Cup markets are starting to run hotter than your mate’s group chat after a big win.
The official Melbourne Cup nominations drew 120 early entries, including 19 Northern hemisphere raiders out to rain on the local’s parade.
Below we look at five of the standout stayers heading all-in betting on Australia’s most prestigious race to see if we can’t find this year’s Melbourne Cup winner at a price before the first Tuesday of November!
AL RIFFA (FR) – Joseph O’Brien
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $9
- Age: 6YO (5YO Northern hemisphere)
- Gender: Horse
- Breeding: by WOOTTON BASSETT (GB) from LOVE ON MY MIND (IRE)
- Career: 14-4:5:1
- Prizemoney: $1,652,332
The best fancied of the international contingent for this year’s race, Al Riffa hails from the Irish stables of top horseman Joseph O’Brien who already has himself two Melbourne Cup trophies at home.
Since the first Northern hemisphere-trained Melbourne Cup winner back in 1993 the raiders have dominated Melbourne Cup tipping and results, but O’Brien’s second champion – Twilight Payment in 2020 – was the last visitor to steal the show.
Al Riffa has emerged as a leading contender following his dominant win in the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m), a key form reference for the race, back in July. He was enormous with 62kg on his back to beat Shacklelton by a runaway five lengths. Huge from the multiple Group 1 champ.
Recently acquired by Australian Bloodstock in a multimillion-dollar deal, the gun stayer quickly joined the top tier of Cup betting alongside one-time stablemate Vauban but is now the outright fancy following the nominations.
With a pedigree boasting Wootton Bassett and a Galileo mare, Al Riffa has proven his class on the international stage, including two Group 1 victories and strong performances against elite rivals.
He is set to run next in the Irish St Leger before heading to Melbourne, with plans for a global campaign post-Cup, including Hong Kong and Dubai. O’Brien believes Al Riffa’s still got more gears to find and should eat up the two miles. Frankly, hard to argue with the man.
Early Tip: Top 3
SIR DELIUS (GB) – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $11
- Age: 5YO
- Gender: Horse
- Breeding: by FRANKEL (GB) from WHATAMI (GB)
- Career: 7-4:1:1
- Prizemoney: $388,063
Lightly raced, ticking plenty of boxes and oozing upside, have Waterhouse & Bott found themselves a Melbourne Cup champion in Sir Delius?
Waterhouse became the third female trainer to claim a Loving Trophy with Fiorente back in 2013 but is yet to secure a second in partnership with former racing manager Bott.
The imported galloper, a son of ace sire Frankel, made an immediate impact in his Australian race debut at Doomben back in May where he relished a Heavy (8) track to blitz the field carrying the 60kg topweight to a decisive Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap (2000m) win.
That was his first performance since a credible eighth in one of the best-known horse races anywhere in the world, the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m). He ran 8.8 lengths off the winner Bluestocking off a strong European campaign under Jean-Claude Rouget, where he placed in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris and Group 2 Prix Niel, both behind the high-class Sosie. His Arc run was solid given the depth of the field and his limited experience, and he is sure to be better in his next round at the top level.
He’s set to kick off his spring bid this weekend in Sydney’s Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and will have plenty of eyes on him late in the mile showdown at Randwick.
Since his impressive Australian debut, he’s shown plenty of promise over his trial campaign competing in two barrier trials, including a winning Hawkesbury hit out over 1250m in the wet on August 25.
You can see he’s getting fitter, sharper, and hungrier to really show what he can do over further. Bott has been throwing around phrases like “untapped potential” and hinting the horse is crying out for a longer trip – ideal Melbourne Cup territory.
After Saturday’s Chelmsford, he’ll head south to Melbourne for a tailored path toward the Cup.
This horse looms as one of the more intriguing prospects in this year’s field, but I would like to see him fresh first before taking him at the price.
I get the vibe he is winding up for something big, but is it the two miles or is he better suited for the Caulfield Cup?
Early Tip: Take to Win the Caulfield Cup
VAUBAN (FR) – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $11
- Age: 8YO
- Gender: Gelding
- Breeding: by GALIWAY (GB) from WALDFEST (GB)
- Career: 24-9:5:3
- Prizemoney: $1,967,993
Now Vauban is a horse who has been here twice before, but will the now eight-year-old warhorse make it third time lucky in the big race?
With Waterhouse & Bott, this proven galloper is one we know gets the two miles. In fact, he’s won up to 3382m so there are no queries about the distance.
However, he has tried twice before without a top 10 performance, and it will take some training effort to have him peaking and ready to atone this November.
That said, maybe experience and being stabled in Sydney now is what he’s been needing to really put his best foot forward in the country’s best race?
Waterhouse and Bott believe the change in training environment and a more tailored campaign will unlock his full potential, with early signs already promising.
He’s a former hurdler who was racing in top form last season finishing third in the Group 2 Curragh Cup, winning the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup before an Irish St. Leger second which led into his Melbourne Cup 11th.
That was an improvement on his 14th in the Melbourne Cup the year prior, but still somewhat underwhelming.
The highly touted stayer entered the race as one of the best in betting for the second year running after a revamped preparation by his then trainer Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci – who adjusted travel plans and increased his racing workload to five starts leading into the Cup.
Vauban again failed to deliver on the big stage, beaten 5.02 lengths in the 23-horse field and never looked a winning chance, with Mullins later admitting, “it’s probably not Vauban’s track” and suggesting the horse simply doesn’t enjoy Australian conditions.
He proved he could win down under once he went to his new team and took out the autumn’s Group 3 Sky High Stakes by the barest of margins at Rosehill in March before a nice third narrowly denied behind Dubai Honour at the same track in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes (2400m).
Following that, in a strange move, he went back to 2000m and met up with the queen – Via Sistina – in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth where he failed to stay in touch crossing a distant 10th.
So, what do we make of all of this? Well, his back-to-back trial wins ahead of his return have been impressive so there is hope. He also has a proven turn of foot and versatility across track conditions.
He definitely seemed to struggle with quarantine conditions and preparation gaps in the past, but has settled into his new home and shown renewed sharpness and speed in trials
I’m sure he’ll run a better race than what he has previously, but for mine I’m happy to learn from past mistakes and don’t think he’ll be this year’s winner.
Early Tip: Top 6
DEAKIN (FR) – Phillip Stokes
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $15
- Age: 6YO
- Gender: Gelding
- Breeding: by AUSTRALIA (GB) from DEALBATA (IRE)
- Career: 15-5:2:1
- Prizemoney: $431,492
Bookies are taking no chances with the Phillip Stokes trained Australia six-year-old after Irish import Deakin secured his ballot free ride into this year’s 24-horse Melbourne Cup field via a nice Listed Roy Higgins (2600m) win at Flemington back in May.
He had his 15th career start at Caulfield on August 30 but failed to really fire finishing 12th of 14 runners behind Sepals when the 61.5kg got the better of him in a BM100 over 1400m.
A horse sure to improve with more running and over a longer trip, he’s in and just needs to prove his class now.
Stokes has mapped out a traditional Cup path for Deakin who is first likely to contest the Caulfield Cup, and he’s confident he’s found an emerging champion rating him as superior to his former Cup runner Daqiansweet Junior who ran fifth to Without A Fight in 2023 at 50/1.
He’s obviously acclimatised to the Aussie way well, but the big question – can he actually see out the 3200m? That’s the million-dollar mystery.
While he impressed in his first Australian preparation, notching up multiple wins including the Torney Cup, and has reportedly “really strengthened up” during a well-managed break, the fact he is untested at Group 1 level and we’re fast approaching Melbourne Cup Day is a bit of a red flag for mine.
The odds seem pretty conservative looking at some of these rivals.
Early Tip: Happy to Leave Out
ABSURDE (FR) – Willie Mullins
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $18
- Age: 8YO (7YO Northern Hemisphere)
- Gender: Gelding
- Breeding: by FASTNET ROCK from INCROYABLE (USA)
- Career: 27-7:7:5
- Prizemoney: $1,450,305
There are currently seven horses occupying the equal fifth line of all-in Melbourne Cup markets at this $18 quote, but the one that is a standout for mine based on experience alone is Absurde.
He is with elite Irish horseman Willie Mullins and is another back for his third shot at the title.
Unlike his former stablemate Vauban, Absurde has had two Melbourne Cup runs for two Top 10 finishes and that stacks up well for the mature galloper this year.
He may race down under as an eight-year-old, but he’s officially a Northern hemisphere seven-year-old with plenty of racing left in him if his strong recent form is to go by.
He was the Ebor winner in 2023 before his seventh in that year’s Cup race, while he had mixed form leading up to his run last year.
After pulling up in his first hurdle start at Leopardstown in December of 2023, he bounced back with a fourth-place finish in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle and then claimed victory in the County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham over 3400m.
His return to the flat saw a disappointing first-up run in the Group 3 Irish St Leger Trial, where he was beaten by 31 lengths, but he rebounded impressively to win the Listed Chester Stakes over 2900m proving he was still a stayer to look out for.
Off that win, he went on to finish fifth behind the upset winner Knight’s Choice only 1.71 lengths beaten in the 2024 Melbourne Cup in a run full of merit.
In a tough watch for punters that had backed him, Absurde and jockey Kerrin McEvoy were shuffled further back than expected early in the race but made significant ground along the inside rail in the straight.
Mullins described the run as “a hell of a performance,” especially given the horse’s compromised position early on, and expressed optimism about returning with Absurde for another Cup attempt. That is a good sign.
More recently in April this year, Absurde added another win to his record in the Sussex Champion Hurdle at Plumpton, powering clear under Harry Cobden and boosting Mullins’ standing in the UK Trainers’ Championship.
Proficient in both jumps and flat racing, he caught the eye on August 16 when third to Leinster in the Irish St Leger with 61kg but is one that always sneaks into the Cup field here on much lighter weights.
He has solid credentials for another Melbourne Cup campaign, and I’m sure he’ll show up once again.
With another good weight and hopefully an easier time of it in the run, we can expect a big finish from this seasoned campaigner.
Early Tip: Top 5
All Melbourne Cup odds quoted are all-in from Ladbrokes, correct at time of publish and subject to change at any time without notice.
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