A host of dead-rubber encounters made for a strange finish to the 2025 NRL regular season, with four of the last five matches producing points totals of 60-plus – and Sunday’s two fixtures witnessing a whopping 29 tries.
But the Broncos clinched a top-four berth with a statement performance, the Roosters held their nerve to convincingly grab the last spot in the finals and the Titans provided a silver lining to a tough season by avoiding the spoon.
Hughes blow turns title race on its head
A 30-14 loss to Brisbane and a broken forearm to marquee halfback Jahrome Hughes 25 minutes into his return from a shoulder injury layoff has seen Melbourne tumble off the top line of premiership betting for the first time this season.
On top of Hughes’ shattering setback, the Storm were ragged on both sides of the ball for the second week in a row – following on from a second-half collapse against Sydney Roosters in Round 26.
The 70 points they have leaked in the past fortnight is Melbourne’s worst two-game defensive effort since early-2006.
Tyran Wishart is a quality No.7 fill-in, and the Storm still have the elite triumvirate of Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen to steer the ship…but they look anything but bulletproof with yet another Nelson Asofa-Solomona suspension compounding matters.
The second-placed Storm will be acutely aware of the importance of getting over the Bulldogs (who have their own halves wrinkles to iron out) in this Friday’s qualifying final and avoid a likely sudden-death semi against the Panthers.
Melbourne has drifted to $4.00 for the title, just behind minor premier Canberra ($3.75).
Walsh masterclass catapults Broncos into contention
Reece Walsh’s season has been chequered to say the least, interrupted by a six-week injury break and persistent criticism for perceived inconsistency and attitude issues.
A social media furore appeared shockingly timed ahead of a crunch Round 27 assignment.
But the gifted fullback arrives for his second finals series on fire – and a sizzling performance in the Broncos’ first regular-season win over the Storm in nine years has sounded a warning to rest of the NRL’s heavyweights.
Walsh scored two dazzling tries in a 22-point haul and laid on another four-pointer. A sensational tackle to put Xavier Coates into touch during the first half painted a picture of a superstar laser-focused on the month of high-stakes footy ahead.
Leading the Broncos to an all-important top-four finish, the 23-year-old has scored five tries, produced six try assists and made 40 tackle-breaks on their current four-match winning streak.
The gulf between Walsh’s best and worst remains cavernous.
But if he can string together the former for three or four games, the Broncos – into $6.00 for the title – are as dangerous as any side in the playoffs, a prospect that seemed far-fetched when they lost Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo to injury in a loss to the Storm five weeks ago.
Premiership partners bow out in style
Their respective clubs endured disappointing campaigns, but Daly Cherry-Evans enjoyed a fitting farewell from Manly and 2011 grand final-winning halves partner Kieran Foran exited the NRL in equally suitable fashion on the Gold Coast.
Cherry-Evans’ impending departure after 15 seasons as the Sea Eagles’ linchpin has undeniably contributed to a season that fell away badly after a blistering start.
But his 352nd – the third-most of all time for one club – and final game in the maroon-and-white jersey featured one last piece of DCE magic: a left-footed field goal that ultimately proved the difference in a 27-26 win over the finals-bound Warriors.
Foran missed the first 10 rounds with injury as the Titans wallowed around the foot of the ladder all season, but the 318-game warhorse’s leadership, competitiveness and touches of class have provided some rare highlights for the NRL minnows.
So it was in his last appearance, having a hand in five tries as the Titans won an entertaining Saturday showdown with Wests Tigers 36-28 – offloading the wooden spoon to hapless Newcastle in the process.
Top 8 stragglers set for deep run
Since the current finals format was readopted in 2012, few teams have made a significant impression on the post-season from the lower reaches of the Top 8.
Newcastle made a surprise preliminary final run from seventh in 2013, Canterbury wended its way through to the 2014 grand final from seventh, North Queensland sensationally reached a decider from eighth in 2017 and seventh-placed Souths won two sudden-death matches to get to a prelim in 2023.
But with seventh-placed Penrith and eighth-placed Sydney Roosters hit the finals in tremendous shape with a galaxy of big-match experience to call upon, having both recovered from tough starts to 2025 and a couple of late-season bumps.
The Roosters blitzed Souths 36-6 on Friday – with breakout convert Mark Nawaqanitawase bagging a hat-trick and the Ken Irvine Medal as the NRL’s top tryscorer – to punch their finals ticket.
The Panthers cruised to a 40-20 win over St George Illawarra after virtually their entire line-up got a rest a week earlier.
The Roosters ($1.65) and Panthers ($1.42) both opened as firm favourites to win their elimination finals, against a potentially Nicho Hynes-less Cronulla Sharks and the flagging Warriors, respectively.
Should they win in Sydney this Saturday, the Roosters will then head to Brisbane or Canberra with their tailfeathers up, striving for an opportunity to take on either the Storm or Bulldogs in a prelim.
If the Panthers survive their trip to Auckland, they shape as a daunting semi-final prospect for the Storm or Bulldogs – and for the Raiders or Broncos in a potential preliminary final blockbuster.
That’s two relatively palatable paths through September that could create a historic 7 v 8 grand final on the first Sunday of October.
Rating the also-rans
The season is officially over for nine clubs – but some will be viewing the year and the impending pre-season through very different lenses:
Dolphins (12 wins, 12 losses – 9th): Injuries and another late-season fadeout cruelled a maiden finals appearance, but finishing as the NRL’s best attacking team – and a line-up built around wunderkind halfback Isaiya Katoa – underlined their potential in coming seasons.
Manly (12 wins, 12 losses – 10th): The DCE bombshell kick-started a sequence of inconsistency that continued until the end of the season after looking like title threats in March. Looks like a squad in need of more rejuvenation than Jamal Fogarty coming in for Cherry-Evans can provide.
Parramatta (10 wins, 14 losses – 11th): Rookie coach Jason Ryles’ methods bore fruit as the season wore on, the Eels winning five of their last seven games to look ahead to 2026 with great optimism. Their big-name buys were great, young discoveries abounded and Mitch Moses was elite when fit.
North Queensland (9 wins, 1 draw, 14 losses – 12th): Never really got cooking and produced the second-worst defensive record in the NRL. Unacceptable results for having half a dozen Origin players in their ranks and Todd Payten should be under immense pressure to hold onto his job.
Wests Tigers (9 wins, 1 draw, 14 losses – 13th): Still plenty of work to do but ending a three-year reign as wooden spooners is a big positive and their best under Benji was finals quality. The Lachlan Galvin saga is one of 2025’s big what-ifs.
South Sydney (9 wins, 15 losses – 14th): One of the worst injury tolls of the NRL era had the Bunnies on track for Wayne Bennett’s first-ever spoon, but a late-season rally bumped them up the ladder. Look a key-position star short with their fortunes still largely hinging on injury-prone Latrell Mitchell.
St George Illawarra (8 wins, 16 losses – 15th): Still in finals contention with a month of the season left but unravelled, conceding 40 points in each of their last three games. Overall a regression on the positive steps made during Shane Flanagan’s first season at the helm.
Gold Coast (6 wins, 18 losses – 16th): Highlights were few and far between as Des Hasler’s stint on the holiday strip came to a premature end. Josh Hannay has his work picking up the pieces with a talented roster that can’t defend.
Newcastle (6 wins, 18 losses – 17th): An unmitigated disaster from mid-March, resulting in the end of Adam O’Brien’s six-season tenure. Finished the season on a nine-match losing streak as their defence mirrored their competition-worst attack, landing the spoon with a 66-10 final-round loss to the Eels.