Alongside three razor’s edge blockbusters on the opening weekend of the 2025 NRL finals series, the Warriors are rank outsiders in their elimination final against four-time defending champs Penrith Panthers.
But boilovers are a frequent occurrence once the home-and-away rounds are out of the way and the post-season pressure cooker cranks up.
Relive the biggest week one finals upsets of the NRL era.
2000 Qualifying Final – Eels 32 defeated Roosters 8 at Sydney Football Stadium
New-look Parramatta qualified for the 2000 finals in seventh and lined up against Brad Fittler’s star-studded, second-placed Sydney Roosters with three teenagers and two 20-year-olds in a team captained by 22-year-old Nathan Cayless.
The effervescent Eels overcame an early 8-0 deficit to romp to a stunning 32-8 upset, with 18-year-old winger Pat Richards bagging a double and Kiwi centre David Vaealiki toeing ahead to score a vital try after an infamous gaffe from Roosters fullback Luke Phillips.
The Eels went on to reach the preliminary final, losing a tight one to minor premier Brisbane, while the Roosters regrouped to make the grand final – going down to the Broncos 14-6.
2001 Qualifying Final – Dragons 23 defeated Bulldogs 22 at Sydney Showgrounds
St George Illawarra returned to the 2001 playoffs in seventh, facing a sudden-death showdown with the Bulldogs in week one.
The Bulldogs rallied to lead 14-12 at halftime when Dally M Rookie of the Year Braith Anasta scored, but then-unknown winger Matt Cooper’s second try put the Dragons 22-16 up with 14 minutes to go.
Saints halfback Willie Peters gave his side a seven-point buffer with a field goal, which proved crucial as Glen Hughes crossed for the Bulldogs. The Dragons held on 23-22 before going down to the Broncos at the semi-final stage, while the Bulldogs went out in straight sets at the hands of the Sharks.
2002 Qualifying Final – Dragons 26 defeated Knights 22 at Energy Stadium
Seventh toppled second for the third straight finals series in 2002 – and again it was St George Illawarra using the sudden-death motivation to snare victory, rolling defending premier Newcastle 26-22 on the road.
The pivotal moment occurred just 10 minutes in, when the Knights lost Andrew Johns to a back fracture. The Dragons kept their noses in front in a seesawing contest, clinging to a four-point lead for the last 18 minutes to stay alive.
The Dragons bowed out to the Sharks a week later, while the Knights – with Johns sidelined – crashed to a heavy loss to the Roosters.
2003 Qualifying Final – Warriors 46 defeated Bulldogs 22 at Sydney Showgrounds
In one of the most remarkable blitzes in finals history, the sixth-placed Warriors blew the heavyweight, third-placed Bulldogs away 46-22 in Sydney on the opening Saturday of the 2003 playoffs.
The Bulldogs recovered from a 16-4 halftime deficit to level the scores, but it was all one-way traffic from that point with the Warriors piling on five dazzling tries in the space of 15 minutes with Sione Faumuina, Brent Webb, Clinton Toopi and Motu Tony on fire.
Hulking winger Francis Meli stole the show, however, with an all-time finals record five tries. The Warriors and Bulldogs were the beaten preliminary finalists in 2003, at the hands of the Panthers and Roosters, respectively.
2004 Qualifying Final – Cowboys 30 defeated Bulldogs 22 at Stadium Australia
Long-term whipping boys North Queensland qualified for its maiden finals series in the club’s 10th season – and pulled off a famous boilover on post-season debut against a Bulldogs side tripped up at the qualifying final stage for the third time in four years.
The seventh-placed Cowboys took a shock 16-0 lead and had powered out to 26-6 with 20 minutes to go. The Bulldogs sparked into action with three unanswered tries, but Test winger Matt Sing’s third touchdown in the dying stages sealed a 30-22 triumph.
The Cowboys subsequently upset the Broncos before going down in a prelim thriller to the Roosters, who lost to the resurgent Bulldogs in the grand final.
2006 Qualifying Final – Dragons 20 defeated Broncos 4 at Suncorp Stadium
After a post-Origin slump, the third-placed Broncos hit the finals on fire – but their roll came to a shuddering halt via a 20-4 loss to the sixth-placed Dragons in Brisbane.
A gritty, clinical Saints outfit led 10-0 after 25 minutes and never looked back, scoring the only two tries of the second half to close out a convincing win.
It was the Broncos’ seventh consecutive finals loss dating back to 2002, but they regrouped to surge to premiership glory. The Dragons were bundled out in the preliminary final by the Storm.
2008 Qualifying Final – Warriors 18 defeated Storm 15 at Olympic Park
Arguably the most celebrated finals upset of the NRL era, the Warriors became the first eighth-placed team to knock over the minor premiers under the now-defunct McIntyre Finals System.
The Storm were at the peak of their powers in 2008, but the flighty Warriors were clearly up for the fight from the outset at Olympic Park and fought back to 8-all at halftime through a Jerome Ropati try.
Manu Vatuvei put the Warriors in front, but the Storm looked to have quelled a gallant effort from the visitors through an Israel Folau equaliser and a 68th-minute field goal from Greg Inglis.
With time running out, Ropati and Vatuvei engineered a stunning 70-metre match-winner finished off by five-eighth Michael Witt. The Warriors followed up the epic 18-15 result with a home win over the Roosters before losing a prelim to the Sea Eagles, who routed the Storm 40-0 in the grand final.
2009 Qualifying Final – Eels 25 defeated Dragons 12 at Kogarah Oval
Parramatta performed one of the great late-season rallies to snatch eighth spot in 2009, winning six straight matches on the back of six straight man-of-the-match performances from fullback Jarryd Hayne. But the Eels were trounced 37-0 in the final round by minor premier St George Illawarra.
The blue-and-golds turned the tables on the Dragons nine days later, however, repeating the Warriors’ feat of 12 months earlier in a resounding 25-12 victory.
The Eels kept the Saints at arm’s length on the scoreboard all afternoon at Kogarah Oval, before Hayne sealed the deal with a staggering individual try in the 77th minute.
The Dragons became the first minor premiers to make a straight-sets exit from the finals since 1993 with a defeat to the Broncos, while the Eels went all the way to the grand final, where they lost valiantly to the Storm.
2013 Elimination Final – Knights 22 defeated Bulldogs 6 at ANZ Stadium
Newcastle’s first finals victory of the post-Andrew Johns era came in surprising circumstances, shocking the previous year’s minor premier and grand finalist, Canterbury, 22-6.
Wayne Bennett’s seventh-placed Knights conceded the first try but were relentless on both sides of the ball thereafter to take out the elimination final.
Newcastle pulled off a much bigger upset a week later, ending Melbourne’s title defence, before bowing out to Sydney Roosters at the preliminary final stage.
2014 Qualifying Final – Panthers 19 defeated Roosters 18 at Allianz Stadium
Big improvers Penrith Panthers went into their qualifying final against defending champs and minor premiers Sydney Roosters as $3.79 underdogs – but ultimately prevailed 19-18 in a classic.
In a fluctuating contest, Mitchell Pearce’s try at the 73-minute mark appeared to have clinched the win for the Roosters. But a freakish piece of play from Penrith’s teenaged rookie Dallin Watene-Zelezniak produced a late try for centre Dean Whare.
Panthers pivot Jamie Soward buried the sideline equaliser, then slotted a 32-metre field goal with 12 seconds on the clock. The Panthers and Roosters both went on to lose on preliminary finals weekend.
2014 Elimination Final – Bulldogs 28 defeated Storm 4 at AAMI Park
A day after Penrith’s shock victory, $3.35 outsider Canterbury sent Melbourne packing from the playoffs 28-4 at AAMI Park.
The seventh-placed Bulldogs had limped into the finals with just two wins from their previous seven games but flipped the pre-match script on the Storm, with centre Tim Lafai blazing in for a hat-trick.
Des Hasler’s side parlayed that result into a grand final run, eventually brought down by Souths in the big one. It was the Storm’s first opening-week exit from the playoffs since 2000.
2017 Elimination Final – Cowboys 15 defeated Sharks 14 at Allianz Stadium
After losing Johnathan Thurston to injury mid-season, North Queensland scraped into the finals in eighth with just one win from their last six games.
The Cowboys were pitched into a Sydney elimination final against defending premier Cronulla and trailed 8-2 at halftime.
But the $3.35 underdogs refused to go away and levelled the scores at 14-all in the 78th minute via an Ethan Lowe penalty. Cowboys halfback Michael Morgan set the tone for a magic finals series with a field goal in the fifth minute of extra-time, their run finally extinguished by the Storm in the grand final.
2018 Elimination Final – Dragons 48 defeated Broncos 18 at Suncorp Stadium
The Wayne Bennett-coached Broncos were hot $1.25 favourites to dispose of the Dragons at home in the 2018 elimination finals – and a sizzling 80-metre try finished off by rookie forward David Fifita put the hosts up 10-2.
But that’s as good as it got for a Broncos side left shellshocked by a seven-try Saints avalanche. Back-rower Tariq Sims bagged a hat-trick in an incredible 48-18 result.
The Dragons were halted by the Sharks in week two, while the Broncos would have to wait another five years to win a finals match.
2019 Qualifying Final – Raiders 12 defeated Storm 10 at AAMI Park
Fourth-placed Canberra was installed as a $3.26 underdog to topple minor premier Melbourne, a grand finalist in each of the previous three seasons.
Joey Leilua was sensationally forced to the bench seconds before kick-off after a spark from a firework went in his eye, but replacement Bailey Simonsson scored the opening try in the fourth minute and the Raiders’ belief never wavered – despite falling behind 10-6.
A Josh Addo-Carr howler with three minutes left handed a gift-wrapped chance to the Raiders, with Leilua immediately putting British back-rower John Bateman over for the match-winner. The Green Machine would qualify for their first grand final in 25 years, losing a thriller to the Roosters.
2021 Qualifying Final – Rabbitohs 16 defeated Panthers 10 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Second-placed Penrith lost just three regular-season matches and went into its qualifying final against third-placed Souths as a resounding $1.27 favourite, having won the teams’ encounter just three weeks earlier 25-12.
But the Rabbitohs recovered from conceding an early try to lead 10-8 at halftime, while winger Jaxson Paulo’s four-pointer was the only try of the second half in a 16-10 upset.
The teams would meet again in the grand final, where the Panthers turned the tables in a 14-12 classic.
2022 Elimination Final – Raiders 28 defeated Storm 20 at AAMI Park
Canberra proved a post-season bogey team for Melbourne again in 2022, pulling off another AAMI Park boilover in an elimination final.
The eighth-placed Raiders were $3.39 outsiders but built a 16-8 halftime lead. Xavier Coates’ third try early in the second half pegged the Storm back and Nelson Asofa-Solomona barged over to put them back in front with 23 minutes remaining.
But Hudson Young and Jordan Rapana scored opportunist tries to end the Storm’s campaign at its earliest stage for eight years.