Long odds, live chances – Ladbrokes Saturday roughies are ready to shake up the weekend’s racing cards!
The spring action goes up a notch with a triple-shot of Group 1 racing on Melbourne’s Caulfield Guineas Day card, and we’ve unearthed the forgotten hopes at juicy odds in the features including a 60/1 shot in the Caulfield Guineas worth a second look.
Further north and Rosehill Gardens comes to life for a lucrative Hill Stakes Day meeting with plenty of in-form Sydney gallopers flying under the radar.
Lucy Henderson’s lining up a few longshots – check out The Value Whisperer’s Saturday watchlist below.
Rosehill Race 5 (2:55PM AEDT) – Listed $500,000 Tapp-Craig (1400M)
No. 4 Single Choice ($16 at time of publish)
SINGLE CHOICE (5) looks a cracking Each Way play in the Tapp-Craig at around 15/1 – plenty of value for a horse coming in off two strong wins.
Matt Cumani’s Anders gelding absolutely bolted in at Ballarat to break his maiden, then backed it up with a gritty BM64 win at Bendigo lugging 59kg.
He did it the hard way too – settled well back, looped the field, and still got the job done.
He’s up in grade here, sure, but drops to a comfy 55kg, draws beautifully in barrier two, and gets Tyler Schiller on top.
Should get the right run, and if he’s close enough turning for home, don’t be shocked if he’s steaming late.
Worth a nibble at the price.
Caulfield Race 7 (3:50PM AEDT) – Group 1 $1 million Toorak Handicap (1600M)
No. 9 Leica Lucy ($8.50 at time of publish)
While not a double-figure roughie, the price on LECIA LUCY (10) to hand Waller a win in the Toorak is very attractive and I’m happy to include her in my value picks of the day in Melbourne.
Waller’s still chasing that elusive Toorak win, and this classy Kiwi import might just be the mare to deliver it.
She made a big splash across the ditch last season – five wins on the trot, capped off with a dominant Group 1 NZ Oaks victory over 2400m.
Then she came to Sydney and ran a blinder in the ATC Oaks, finishing less than a length off the brilliant Treasurethe Moment. That’s serious form.
She resumed in the Let’s Elope at Flemington and was strong through the line running fourth to Lazzura in a late flash with 58.5kg, so the drop to 54.5kg here is a big tick.
Barrier 10 gives Damian Lane options, and she’s already firming sitting right in the mix with the key market players making now the time to get on board with her.
Up in trip suits her perfectly, and if she gets the right run, she’s got the staying power to be right there when it counts.
Genuine winning chance.
Caulfield Race 8 (4:30PM AEDT) – Group 1 $3 million Caulfield Guineas (1600M)
No. 4 Nepotism ($16 at time of publish)
An already proven Group 1 champ chasing more elite level glory, Nepotism from the Hawkes stable shapes-up as an underrated runner here with the potential to add value to exotics betting on the Guineas this year.
Blake Shinn comes aboard this Brutal colt who we know gets the distance having won the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick back in April defeating last weekend’s subsequent Group 1 Flight Stakes runner-up Within The Law.
He’s at long odds third-up having finished well back in both the Run To The Rose (9th) and Golden Rose (8th) as a three-year-old, but he’ll be improving back up in trip now.
His Golden Rose run was a frustrating watch as he didn’t settle at all for Tyler Schiller over-racing, caught for room and failing to let down the closing stages.
I think Shinn can get control of him and if Nepotism responds, calms down and lets things unfold from the back, he could be the forgotten improver flashing home.
Check out my complete 2025 Caulfield Guineas Runner-by-Runner Preview & Tips here!
Randwick Race 8 (4:50PM AEDT) – Group 2 $2 million Hill Stakes (1900m)
No. 6 Attrition ($14 at time of publish)
The feature race in Sydney, the lucrative Hill Stakes for potential Ladbrokes Cox Plate bound gallopers features a strong and open field, and for value ATTRITION (12) comes in off some excellent form lines and pays a great price.
Mitchell Freedman’s six-year-old son of Churchill presents fit fourth-up and will enjoy a drop in grade after his third behind two of the country’s best mares – Pride Of Jenni and Treasurethe Moment – in The Valley’s Group 2 Feehan Stakes over the mile.
Before that he ran third in an improved run behind Desert Lightning in the So You Think Stakes, also at Moonee Valley, and he’s heading in the right direction.
He’s one from two at Rosehill and defends his Hill Stakes title.
Claimed this race off a very similar lead-up when heading to Sydney off Melbourne runs in the same two races as this campaign, which bodes well.
While he remains winless since his narrow win over Kovalica 12 months ago, he again arrives in peak form and will relish getting up to the trip.
Each Way.
Rosehill Race 9 (5:25PM AEDT) – $1.5 million Alan Brown Stakes (1400m)
No. 5 Bosustow ($10 at time of publish)
It’s a wide-open Alan Brown this Saturday, and BOSUSTOW (6) is the one I’ll be having a cheeky Each Way go at.
While the market’s tightened a touch, he still looks a top play at the price.
Drawn sweetly in barrier six with Josh Parr sticking solid, he’s second-up and ready to roll after a strong fresh run in the Group 3 Bill Ritchie where he just missed behind With Your Blessing carrying 57kg and hit the line like a horse with more to give.
He’s got a tidy 1400m record (9:2-3-1), and while he hasn’t won since that six-length demolition job in the wet as a 3YO in the Gold Coast Guineas, he’s been mixing it with serious company.
Fifth in the Stradbroke behind The Everest-bound War Machine tells you he’s no mug, and he’s versatile enough to handle whatever the track throws up.
Expect him to settle midfield, and if he gets the gaps late, he’s got the engine to run over the top.
In a race with plenty of angles, he’s one I want on my ticket.
Good luck punters!