The Lead-Up Lens: Runners and Races to Watch This Weekend

If the Slipper Fits: From Silver to Golden Slipper Glory!

We’re back punters for the third edition of the Lead-Up Lens where we follow the best out of the autumn’s key lead-up races ahead of the majors.

We haven’t seen a 2YO complete the Silver Slipper / Golden Slipper double since Farnan (2020) but this weekend we’ve got some quality youngsters to watch in the Group 2 as we count down to Slipper Day!

In Melbourne Blue Diamond Day sees a triple-shot of elite-level racing but our focus this week is in Sydney where some top-line two-year-olds take to the Rosehill track in the Group 2 Silver Slipper eyeing a shot at the $5 million grand final in a month’s time.

A field of ten juveniles is engaged for the 2026 Silver Slipper over 1100m this weekend but is our Slipper winner in the mix?

Time to get into the sticky end and take a closer look at the Silver Slipper runners to keep tickets on in futures Golden Slipper betting this year!

Slippery Business: Finding the Golden Ticket in the 2026 Silver Slipper Stakes

Rosehill Race 6 – Group 2 $300,000 Silver Slipper Stakes (1100m)

• Lead-Up For: Group 1 $5 million Golden Slipper Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill on March 21

Silver Slipper – Golden Slipper Double:

• Achieved seven times to date
• She Will Reign (2017) was the last filly to do the double
• Farnan (2020) was the last colt to do the double

If the Golden Slipper is the GF for two-year-olds, then Saturday’s Silver Slipper Stakes is the ultimate semi-final.

There’s no prize for guessing why the trainers are lining up: the winner gets an automatic, golden ticket (ballot exemption) into world’s richest race for two-year-olds on March 21.

While the Victorians have been busy at Caulfield with the Blue Diamond, the Sydney Slipper path heats up right here.

So, which horses ready to make a statement and stamp their Slipper claims?

The History: More Than Just Silver

Don’t let the name fool you—this race is paved with gold.

The Silver Slipper has been the premier launching pad for champions. We’ve seen superstars like Pierro (2012), Mossfun (2014), She Will Reign (2017), Estijaab (2018), and Farnan (2020) all complete the prestigious Silver-to-Golden Slipper double.

Even if they don’t win both, the Silver Slipper form usually holds up. Just look at Cylinder (2023), who won this race before running a massive second in the Big One.

If a horse wins impressively on Saturday, expect their Golden Slipper price to vanish faster than a free lunch in the betting ring.

The Key Runners

We’ve got a crack field of two-year-olds to consider in the Silver Sipper with the best out of this set weights clash more than likely to target the 2026 Golden Slipper next month. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Shiki is the short favourite at $3.60 at time of publish to atone for her midfield finish in January’s Magic Millions Classic up at the Gold Coast. The untapped Confederation is the danger at $4.20 after the Wootton Bassett colt from the Waller stable put in a brave run for his debut second here in the Group 3 Canonbury on Jan 31. The market is wide-open however with three other chances under $10 in the markets – so, where to look?

Shiki Set to Shine: Can the Filly Atone?

Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott once again dominate the market, this time with Shiki, who’s firming quickly at $3.60.

The Too Darn Hot filly is out to make amends after finishing midfield in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic, where she drifted further back than expected behind Unit Five — a key Blue Diamond player in Melbourne this weekend. She wasn’t disgraced there, and the run reads better than it looks on paper.

She then reminded everyone of her talent with a sharp Canterbury trial win earlier this month, reeling off strong late sectionals and putting a big margin on them. From gate seven, she should be able to cross with Tim Clark, tuck in behind her stablemate and likely leader Eviction Notice, and get every chance to finish over the top.

She’s ready to fire.

Golden Target: Shiki is currently at $21 at Ladbrokes for the Golden Slipper. If she salutes for the punters as expected on Saturday that price is going to be slashed and she’ll be challenging those at the top of the markets. Like her? Back her now!

The Form Guide: Why She’s Favourite

• The “Tulloch Lodge” Factor: Waterhouse and Bott are the undisputed kings and queens of two-year-olds. Shiki has already shown she belongs at the top level, having won the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes on debut in the spring.
• Recent Performance: Her last start in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic (7th) looks worse on paper than it was. She was caught in a “severely hampered” incident and carried wide on the turn, essentially ending her winning hopes. Before that, her win in the Gold Pearl at the Gold Coast was dominant.
• The “Slipper” Trial: She went to the trials at Canterbury on February 6 and looked electric, winning comfortably under Tim Clark. She looks to have physically strengthened during her brief let-up.

The Setup: Track & Tactics

• Barrier 7: In a field of 10, she’s drawn middle-to-outside. For a filly with her natural gate speed, this is ideal. Expect Tim Clark to push forward and either lead or sit outside the leader (Eviction Notice).
• The Weights: Carrying 54.5kg, she gets a 2kg advantage over the colts like Incognito and Hidrix, which is a massive swing over the final 200m at Rosehill.

She is the class horse of the race, but it isn’t a walkover.

The Challengers: Will a New Star Emerge?

Shiki may be the top elect for the weekend, but there’s plenty of other up-and-comers ready for the challenge.

No. 4 Confederation

Confederation ($4.20) heads into Saturday’s Silver Slipper Stakes as a major threat after a gritty debut second behind his highly touted stablemate Hidrix in the Canonbury Stakes. While he was beaten by 1.69 lengths that day, the Chris Waller-trained colt did plenty wrong in the run and is expected to show significant natural improvement with the benefit of race experience some crucial gear changes help world-class jockey James McDonald maintain better control. Drawing ideally in barrier 3, the son of Wootton Bassett should enjoy a more economical trip than his primary rival, Shiki, and if he can harness his early speed more effectively this time around, he looks perfectly placed to turn the tables on Hidrix and slash his current $17 Golden Slipper odds.

No. 2 Hidrix

Hidrix ($5) shapes as the clear benchmark for the colts this Saturday, aiming to remain undefeated and tighten his grip on Golden Slipper favouritism where he currently sits at $10 on the second line of betting as the shortest-priced of the Silver Slipper runners for the Group 1. The expensive son of Extreme Choice couldn’t have been more professional on debut, overcoming a casual trackwork reputation to finish over the top of his rivals for a dominant 1.69-length win in the Canonbury. Jockey Zac Lloyd has declared he is heading into this Group 2 assignment with far more confidence now that the colt has “switched on” mentally, and while he faces a rematch with stablemate Confederation and the class of Shiki, his natural progression suggests he has plenty more in the tank. From barrier 6, look for Lloyd to balance him up early before unleashing that trademark turn of foot that has the Waller stable dreaming of another Slipper trophy after the 2023 win by Shinzo.

No. 1 Incognito

Incognito ($5.50) arrives at Rosehill on a redemption mission, looking to recapture the scintillating form that saw him dominate the Breeders’ Plate in the spring. The Michael Freedman-trained colt was a massive let-down as an odds-on favorite in the Canonbury Stakes last month, but a post-race vet exam revealed a displaced palate (breathing issue) which completely excused his fifth-place finish. To rectify this, Freedman has applied a tongue tie and control bit for Saturday’s assignment, and jockey Tommy Berry has signalled extreme confidence following a brilliant Tuesday morning gallop. Drawing barrier 5, expect Berry to opt for a more conservative, covered run this time to help the son of Stay Inside breathe and find his rhythm. If the gear changes do the trick, Incognito has the class to blow this field away and reclaim his spot as a top-tier Golden Slipper hope, where he currently sits at $17 in all-in markets.

Silver Slipper Best Bets

Silver Slipper Form Facts

• Fillies have a good recent record against the boys in the race and make good Silver Slipper Stakes tips if their form suggests.
• Recent fillies to win the Group 2 include Sunlight (2018), She Will Reign (2017) Mossfun (2014) and Sweet Idea (2013)
• Favourites only have a mediocre strike rate in the Silver Slipper with She Will Reign ($1.35 in 2017) the last to salute for the punters before the victory of Straight Charge ($2.45 in 2024).
• There was a notable upset in 2025 with Beiwacht saluting at Silver Slipper Stakes odds of $17 while Wodeton ran third as the beaten $2.20 favourite.
• Gai Waterhouse has a good recent record in the race winning most recently with Pierro (2012), Sweet Idea (2013) and Farnan (2020).

Golden Slipper Market Watch

The Silver Slipper winner is almost guaranteed to jump into the top five of the Golden Slipper market by Saturday evening.

Currently, the Ladbrokes All-In market is wide open.

Punter’s Verdict

The 2026 Silver Slipper has shaped up as a fascinating tactical battle between the dominant Waller and Waterhouse/Bott stables. With a Soft 5 track expected and the rail out 5m, Rosehill should play fairly, but early speed and Slipper grit will be the deciding factors.

Here is the final breakdown:

• The Best Bet: Hidrix While he’s no longer the lone favourite, the “grey flash” is the percentage play. He did everything right on debut and has the most natural upside of the colts. Zac Lloyd’s confidence after his debut win suggests this horse has another gear we haven’t seen yet. If he stays focused, he’s the one they have to hold off.
• The “J-Mac” Factor: Confederation You rarely lose money backing James McDonald from barrier 3 in a Group 2. This colt was green on debut but still chased hard. With the added race experience and a perfect trail behind the speed, he is the most likely to turn the tables on his last start conqueror.
• The Class Threat: Shiki As the current favourite, she has the Tulloch Lodge professional polish. Her 2kg weight pull as a filly is a significant advantage. If Tim Clark can cross from barrier7 without burning too much fuel, she could simply break their hearts from the front.
• The Redemption Story: Incognito If you’re a forgiving punter, this is your horse. His Breeders’ Plate win was the best performance by any 2YO this season. If the gear changes have fixed his breathing, his current price will look like a steal by the day’s end.

Silver Slipper – Golden Slipper Double Winners:

• Eskimo Prince (1964)
• Baguette (1970)
• Luskin Star (1977)
• Pierro (2012)
• Mossfun (2014)
• She Will Reign (2017)
• Farnan (2020)

Happy punting Slipper fans!

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