The 2026 State of Origin series is here – and the build-up to game one in Sydney has been dominated but a host of selection gambles and curious personnel calls by NSW and Queensland.
After a demoralising series defeat last year to surrender the Origin shield, the pressure is Blues coach Laurie Daley and linchpin Nathan Cleary. But starting things off at Accor Stadium could provide the necessary advantage to get the jump on Billy Slater’s Maroons.
After cruising to a convincing 18-6 series-opening win at Suncorp Stadium in 2025, NSW completely imploded. The Blues were flattered by a 26-24 scoreline in Perth after getting lapped in the first half, before crumbling 24-12 at home in a diabolical decider performance.
Queensland took the plunge and axed long-serving halfback and captain Daly Cherry-Evans – and replacement No.7 Tom Dearden came away with the Wally Lewis Medal as player of the series.
Injuries, form and eligibility criteria overhauls have dictated a slew of changes to Daley’s and Slater’s game one line-ups.
James Tedesco regained the NSW fullback spot from an unlucky Dylan Edwards, while Stephen Crichton and Kotoni Staggs got the nod in the centres with Latrell Mitchell out injured, and Manly game-breaker Tolu Koula will debut on a wing. Mitch Moses won the race to partner Cleary in the halves.
With Payne Haas and Angus Crichton unavailable, Addin Fonua-Blake uses the eligibility change to earn a debut alongside Mitch Barnett up front and Haumole Olakau’atu partners Hudson Young in the second-row.
The selection of Victor Radley and Jacob Saifiti on the bench raised eyebrows. Firstly, there’s just one prop on the bench, while the claims of Jackson Ford and Keaon Koloamatagi were surprisingly ignored.
Blayke Brailey, Ethan Strange and Casey McLean could debut after being named on Origin’s first six-man interchange.
Meanwhile, Slater dropped a bombshell by leaving Reece Walsh out altogether and bringing Kalyn Ponga back in the No.1. Debutant Jojo Fifita and the returning Selwyn Cobbo are on the wings with Xavier Coates injured, while Sam Walker won the halfback spot with Dearden out.
Lock Max Plath (also dummy-half cover) and Kiwi international Briton Nikora are Queensland’s forward debutants, while Ezra Mam and Gehamat Shibasaki provide injury cover on the bench.
Captain Cam Munster and Harry Grant made timely form turnarounds in the past fortnight with the Storm pulling out of their alarming skid, but Tino Fa’asuamaelaui and Trent Loiero will be aiming to produce better than what they’ve been dishing up at club level.
Queensland is chasing three straight wins in Sydney for the first time since 2009-10. They won the 2024 series opener 38-10 after Joseph Suaalii’s early send-off, while a 20-0 first half laid the platform for the victory in last year’s decider.
NSW took a 1-0 lead for just the second time in seven years in 2025.
Whether the harsh policing of the ruck that has prevailed in the NRL in 2026 – resulting in a massive increase in scoring – extends to the Origin arena is one of the big question marks hanging over Wednesday’s showdown and the series as a whole.
A wet forecast is keeping the total points line down to 42.5, with only three of the last 16 Origins in Sydney producing more than 34 points.
Brian To’o scored a record-equalling five tries in a losing series effort last year and has 11 in 15 matches for NSW. Queensland centre Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow boasts 11 tries in just 10 Origins.
The Blues have been installed as $1.55 favourites and there’s a lot to like about their back five, while Cleary has a point to prove with his inability to dominate in Origin coming under plenty of scrutiny again in the pre-series discourse.
But the composition of their middle-forward selections is a concern and the absence of Haas is enormous.
Walker will be put under immense pressure on debut, but Munster, Ponga and Grant provide elite support and this just has the feel of another Queensland ambush.
- Tip: Back Queensland to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90
- First Try Scorer: Kotoni Staggs (NSW) @ $15
- Man of the Match: Kalyn Ponga (QLD) @ $15
- SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND WIN / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.37