Saturday’s Best Bets: Eagle Farm, Sandown, Rosehill

It was a toss up for my best bet between Tron Bolt in the JJ Atkins and Yellow Jersey in the opening event but given I’m mentioning the two-year-old later in this article, let’s go the import!

YELLOW JERSEY (2) brings excellent international form to the Listed Wayne Wilson and looks well placed in his Australian debut.

Now with the McEvoy stable, the four-year-old gelding has won three of four starts and has tremendous upside.

Following three dominant wins to start his career, he led the Group 2 Prix Du Conseil De Paris and gave a great sight only to be run down late by Convergent and Dubai Honour to finish just over a half-length third.

That’s elite form given the well-travelled Dubai Honour has won two Australian Group 1 races.

He looked very good in a recent Sunshine Coast trial where he cruised around for an easy win in the heavy conditions.

Mark Zahra will give him every chance from the good gate.

At $26 for the win, my best value bet is Estadio Mestalla. Resasoning is below in my Ladbrokes Stradbroke section.   

TRON BOLT (4) broke through in impressive fashion two starts ago at Kensington over 1400m, where he charged home after being held up to win by 2.95 lengths.

The Chris Waller-trained colt stamped himself as a serious Group 1 J.J. Atkins contender last start when putting away his rivals with absolute disdain by 1.86 lengths on a heavy Rosehill.

That run screamed “give me a mile” which he gets here at peak fitness.

Waller has called upon his number one man James McDonald for another Group 1 tilt and I expect the gun hoop to give his mount the right run.

   ESTADIO MESTALLA (11) looks like a genuine chance at odds in the Group 1 Ladbrokes Stradbroke Handicap.

The Joe Pride-trained gelding was last seen finishing a strong fourth, beaten 2.46 lengths, in the Listed Luskin Star Stakes at Scone, working well to the line.

He boasts an excellent third-up record and has had two trials to bring him to peak fitness.

A strong mile is often a key asset for Stradbroke contenders, and that’s a box he clearly ticks.

The reapplication of blinkers adds further appeal. He led throughout for a 1.49-length win over this trip at Randwick when wearing them for the first time.

With Chad Schofield likely to settle him in a prominent position, he should get every chance to produce a knockout performance.

HALF YOURS (1) can turn things around in the Group 2 Q22 with the rise to 2200m and a rain-affected track.

The tactical blunder to try to improve position in the back straight cost the Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained gelding his chance in the Group 1 Doomben Cup last start, yet he still boxed on well to finish 4.18 lengths fourth with Vauban just ahead of him.

He should be ready to hit his straps fourth-up just as he did last preparation when winning the Group 1 Caulfield Cup.

The wet track plays into his hands given he won his only heavy track race and has won four from seven on soft going.

SIMURGH (5) has been outstanding since arriving in Australia, and after only just missing out at Pakenham in late April, he since unbeaten in a pair of 2000m races at Caulfield.

His latest run, albeit still good enough to win, looked to be one of a horse crying out for further, and he gets the mile and a half this week.

In peak order now, I’m eager to stick with him until he gives me a reason not to.

BAZABALL REWARDED (10) was outstanding, albeit in generally weaker company last time in, but she returned to action this campaign with a sharp performance to get up in Saturday metro company at Caulfield; arguably her best performance to date.

She was then stepped up into Listed company and was far from disgraced last time and will only improve for that effort.

Back in grade and from a low draw this week, she should get her chance, and she looks a touch of overs in the market at around the $10 mark.

TRON BOLT (4) has only made three appearances at the races since debuting, but he is a clearly a horse of immense ability, and each of his two latest starts have been particularly impressive.

This is a clear rise in class, but he has plenty of upside and the booking of James McDonald clearly doesn’t hinder his chances.

Horses like Press Statement and The Autumn Sun have announced themselves in this race for the Waller yard previously, and I am confident Tron Bolt will join that list.

A genuine case can be made for most of the horses in this year’s Ladbrokes Stradbroke field and it is a terrific betting race as a result, but one that stood out to me at huge odds is ESTADIO MESTALLA (11).

Estadio Mestalla has been a model of consistency throughout his career, picking off some lovely races and finding form around some very good opposition.

I think he gets into this race particularly well with 53.5kgs, he boasts soft and heavy form and gets the blinkers this week. With luck in the run, he certainly wouldn’t look out of place in the thick of things when the whips start cracking.

In my opinion, the Q22 is the perfect race for VAUBAN (2).

He’s been a mainstay in Australia’s best staying races for a few years now, and after adding the Sky High Stakes to his resume at the beginning of his current prep, he’s since finished third in both the Tancred Stakes and the Doomben Cup.

I’m confident that latter run will have brought him right on for this, he’s a horse that will relish sting out of the track and he has been specifically set for this, whereas a few of his key rivals might be here as an afterthought.

CLEVOR TREVOR (2) shapes as one of the stronger chances on the card. 

The Patrick Payne-trained three-year-old made it three straight with a win at Caulfield last month in similarly testing conditions, stepping up in class impressively to score by nearly a length. 

He covered extra ground from a wide draw on that occasion and faces a similar challenge again from an outside gate on Saturday. Now proven on wet tracks and still on the rise, he looks well placed to deliver another solid performance third-up. 

AFTERBERNA (9) is worth another look, particularly if the track is heavily affected by rain. 

The Cosmic Force filly showed she thrives in testing ground when winning first-up at Pakenham in early May, before heading to Caulfield Heath where she fought on gamely in a tight finish, just missing out when third. 

A low draw is a key advantage on Saturday, and with improvement to come third-up, she looks ready to run another strong race. 

TRON BOLT (4) has opened a deserving favourite in the JJ Atkins after a dominant last-start win in Sydney. 

The Chris Waller-trained colt powered home down the middle of the track to score by 1.8 lengths over 1300m, indicating the rise to a mile on Saturday should suit perfectly. 

Already proven in wet conditions and with just a touch of early luck needed to slot in from a wide draw, he looks the one they all have to beat. 

ANOTHER WIL (4) looks set to run a big race in the Stradbroke. 

He’s been dealt a tough hand with barrier 17, but has built nicely through both runs this campaign, finishing just outside the placings in the Kingsford Smith Cup a fortnight ago where he charged home strongly. 

While it’s been some time since his last win, he’s a proven performer at 1400m who handles wet conditions, and everything points to him peaking third-up with Ryan Maloney back aboard. 

VAUBAN (2) appears incredibly well placed in the Q22 this afternoon.  

He was a long last in the Doomben Cup early on a few weeks ago, before motoring home late with an electric turn of foot to run third.  

That was his first run back off a brief two-month layoff, and he should relish getting out over 2200m now – a trip he’s won over in the past.