After a wild and controversial season opener, the State of Origin combatants head to the Melbourne Cricket Ground for game two on Wednesday night.
New South Wales boast the buffer of a 1-0 series lead, but Queensland could arguably take more out their game one performance. With several changes to Laurie Daley’s and Billy Slater’s squads, let’s unpack how this one is likely to play out.
The Maroons were on track for a devastating victory in the opening clash of the 2026 series in Sydney three weeks ago, powering to a 20-0 lead in even time with debutant halfback Sam Walker pulling the strings and the bumbling Blues plagued by errors.
Queensland was still 20-6 in front and coasting when Kalyn Ponga was contentiously sent off with 22 minutes to go.
Despite making painfully hard work of erasing the deficit against a shorthanded opponent, the Blues eventually got there on the back of Nathan Cleary’s class and a sensational clutch play from James Tedesco, who scored the winning try in the dying seconds.
But the Blues’ overall display was far below par…perhaps one of the worst seen by a victorious Origin side.
The Maroons, meanwhile, could lament the fact they didn’t build on their early 20-point lead, despite being able to feel somewhat vindicated by the knowledge they would have won if not for Ponga’s shoulder-charge snafu.
Both sides have undergone a host of changes, enforced and by choice.
Stephen Crichton and Casey McLean have been ruled out, which sees Tolu Koula move to centre and Mark Nawaqanitawase debut on the wing. Mitch Moses comes in at five-eighth despite not having played in a month, with game one star Ethan Strange moving to the bench.
Manly gun Haumole Olakau’atu was bewilderingly dropped in favour of Newcastle debutant Dylan Lucas and Api Koroisau joins the bench for injured hooker Blayke Brailey. Payne Haas’ return from injury is a timely boost after an underwhelming series-opening display from the NSW pack.
Queensland’s changes are less disruptive with bench trio Ezra Mam, Gehamat Shibasaki and Pat Carrigan out, replaced by Reece Walsh, Murray Taulagi and Kulikefu Finefeuaki. Briton Nikora will start in game two with Max Plath moving to the interchange.
The Blues have a 5-1 record at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, most recently cruising to a 38-18 win in 2024. The Maroons’ sole victory at the sprawling venue was in 1995, but they did win all three clashes at Docklands in the Victorian capital between 2006 and 2012.
Only five of the last 15 Origin series have been wrapped up inside two games, including just one of the last four. Desperation undoubtedly plays a role at this level – and after a wobbly game one effort, Daley has his work cut out mentally preparing this NSW outfit to wrap up the series with a game to spare.
Slater outwitted his counterpart in last year’s series and in game one. The narrowest of outsiders at the MCG, expect the Maroons to force a Brisbane decider.
- First Try Scorer: Selwyn Cobbo @ $10
- Man of the Match: Harry Grant @ $10
- SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND BY 1-12 POINTS / UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.76