2026 NRL Round 17 Predictions

The Eels are searching for back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 3, while the injury-hit Rabbitohs need to consolidate their standing in a tight Top 8 race.  

FORM: The 5-9 Eels sit 14th on the ladder, following up plucky narrow losses to Newcastle and Canterbury with a 15-12 home victory over Parramatta in Round 15.  

The 7-6 Rabbitohs stayed in the mix with the top-four hopeful by arresting a three-game slide in Round 15, pumping Brisbane 48-6 on the back of an Alex Johnston four-try haul.  

INS AND OUTS: Mitch Moses is back on deck for Parramatta, pushing Joash Papalii to the interchange. Cameron Murray returns from Origin duty for Souths, but Latrell Mitchell has been sidelined for a month.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Jack Williams has been a valuable contributor in a weakened Eels pack and will be looking to measure up to Rabbitohs enforcer Keaon Koloamatangi. 

HISTORY: Souths have won nine of their last 10 against Parramatta, including a 20-16 result in Round 24 last year – the teams’ only 2025 clash.  

KEY STAT: The Eels’ only win at CommBank Stadium over the Rabbitohs was in the initial 2019 encounter there.  

VERDICT: There’s no question the Eels are showing the same sort of improvement – particularly on the defensive end – that characterised their late-2025 efforts. But this has been a seriously fruitful match-up for the Rabbitohs, who clicked into gear in their last start against the Broncos.  

Amid a relatively difficult draw so far and some injury problems, Souths should be too strong with their star-studded pack giving this a distinct mismatch feel. 

Prediction: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / OVER 48.5 POINTS / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ALEX JOHNSTON & JOSH ADDO-CARR TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $8.57 

The Titans have turned their season around in recent weeks, which could spell danger for a visiting Bulldogs side still struggling to put points on the board. 

FORM: After winning only two of their first 11, the Titans have bookended a spirited loss to the Tigers with upsets of the Broncos and ladder-leading Panthers in the past three rounds. Rookie half Zane Harrison stepped up to nail the late match-winning field goal against Penrith.  

The under-pressure Bulldogs have revived their finals hopes with twin low-scoring victories over the Eels and, in a significant upset, the Sea Eagles either side of their Round 15 bye. Stephen Crichton switched to five-eighth and kicked the winning field goal to sink Manly last week.  

INS AND OUTS: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui returns from a post-Origin rest, while Chris Randall also returns for Gold Coast with Cooper Bai ruled out. Jensen Taumoepeau’s season-ending injury sees Jaylan De Groot come onto the wing.  

Stephen Crichton has been named at five-eighth and Matt Burton at centre. Josh Curran comes into the back-row for the injured Sitili Tupouniua. Jacob Preston is in the reserves for the Bulldogs.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Crichton’s shift to five-eighth was the catalyst for last week’s Bulldogs win. His duel with Titans talisman Jayden Campbell will be crucial.   

HISTORY: The Bulldogs have won five of their last six against the Titans – including 40-24 (Belmore) and 38-18 (Suncorp) victories during the first nine rounds of 2025.   

KEY STAT: The Bulldogs have not won at Cbus Super Stadium since 2019.  

VERDICT: The Bulldogs’ 13-12 eclipse of Manly was their best performance of the season aside from their baffling beatdown of Penrith. But they have still been held to 16 points seven of their past eight, creating a massive over-reliance on their defence.  

It’s taken half a season, but Josh Hannay is unlocking something at the Titans – and becoming the only other team to knock over the Panthers is a huge confidence-booster.  

The head-to-head is close enough to even, while neither side has been involved in a game decided by more than four points in their past four games – expect another tight one. 

Prediction: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 10.5 Points @ $1.90 

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / UNDER 47.5 POINTS / JAYDEN CAMPBELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATT BURTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $41.55 

It’s nearing do-or-die time for the beleaguered premiers – can top-four hopeful the Roosters smell blood in the water?  

FORM: The 5-9 Broncos have lost six in row, backing up shock home losses to bottom-two teams the Dragons and Titans with a dreadful 48-6 defeat to the Rabbitohs with Origin players missing from both sides.  

The 9-5 Roosters sit in the top four after bookending their Origin-impacted 48-10 loss to the Dolphins with big wins over the Raiders (26-0) and Sharks (27-8). Mark Nawaqanitawase grabbed a hat-trick in the latter.  

INS AND OUTS: The Broncos get Origin reps Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs and Payne Haas back but Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam are out. Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy pair up in the halves.  

Hugo Savala returns from concussion in the centres for the Roosters, with Billy Smith shifting to the wing and Tommy Talau to the bench.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Reece Walsh versus James Tedesco will be worth the price of admission alone.  

HISTORY: The Roosters have won seven of their last nine against the Broncos, winning 38-24 at Allianz Stadium in Round 9 after racing to a 30-0 lead.  

KEY STAT: Walsh has scored a try in four of his last five games against the Roosters, while the Broncos have held Tedesco scoreless in his last eight games against them.  

VERDICT: The Broncos are in tatters and Reynolds’ absence could not come at a worse time. The presence of Walsh and Haas offers some hope, though neither have been in top form in injury-hampered campaigns.  

The Roosters remain unproven, but last week’s disposal of in-form Cronulla was arguably their best of the season. Overflowing with strike, the visitors shouldn’t have much trouble rattling up a sixth straight Suncorp Stadium win over the Broncos.  

Prediction: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / OVER 49.5 POINTS / ROBERT TOIA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MARK NAWAQANITAWASE TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $26.01 

The Dolphins are gunning for eight straight wins and looking to wrest the Warriors’ mantle as the biggest challenger to Penrith for the 2026 premiership.  

FORM: After a shaky 2-5 start, the third-placed Dolphins are on course for their maiden finals series courtesy of a blistering seven-game winning run – scoring 28-plus points in each. An under-strength side cruised to a 36-22 win over the Tigers in the Sydney wet last Saturday.  

The second-placed Warriors responded to two-point losses to the Panthers and Sharks with a patchy yet convincing 38-20 defeat of the Cowboys in Christchurch as spine trio Wayde Egan, Te Maire Martin and Taine Tuaupiki came into their own.  

INS AND OUTS: Jackson Ford’s injury sees Tanner Stowers-Smith come into the front-row, while Kurt Capewell’s return from a post-Origin rest pushes Marata Niukore to the Warriors’ bench.  

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Max Plath, Tom Flegler and Selwyn Cobbo return for the Dolphins after being rested following Origin. Tom Gilbert has been ruled out.  

KEY MATCH-UP: At opposite ends of the height scale, rival fullbacks Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Taine Tuaupiki and both enjoying outstanding seasons.  

HISTORY: The Warriors lead this rivalry 4-3 with neither side winning consecutive games. The Warriors won 20-18 in an Anzac Day nail-biter in Wellington, while they prevailed 16-12 at Suncorp Stadium last season after Dolphins victories at the venue in 2023 and ’24.  

KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has scored seven tries in seven matches, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak six tries in six matches and Herbie Farnworth five tries in five matches in this rivalry.  

VERDICT: The Dolphins have been on fire, but this is a tremendous test against a genuine top-shelf rival (given the Roosters had seven Origin players out) since their loss to Warriors in Round 8. They are playing an attractive brand of footy but have discovered some elusive defensive steel.  

Ford’s injury means the Warriors are missing six first-choice stars, though their remarkable depth continues to come to the fore.  

They are ranked second in attack (equal with the Dolphins) and second in defence, while a strong Suncorp Stadium record with the Warrior Nation in full voice makes them an attractive underdog in what should be a tremendous contest.  

Prediction: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.87 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 51.5 POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.43 

The Cowboys are on a three-game slide ahead of a Panthers side chastened by just their second loss of the season.  

FORM: After a superb 8-2 run, the Cowboys have fallen out of the Top 8 via three losses to the Raiders, Dolphins and Warriors by 14-plus margins.  

The Origin drain caught up on runaway NRL leaders the Panthers last weekend, dropping just their second game – 19-18 to the Titans – with a host of players out.  

INS AND OUTS: The Cowboys’ only change sees Liam Sutton join a six-man bench for John Bateman. The Panthers welcome back NSW trio Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Brian To’o, with Luke Garner, Jack Cogger and Liam Henry going to the interchange.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Jason Taumalolo makes his 300th NRL appearance for the Cowboys and will be primed for a big game opposite Panthers front-row tough guy Moses Leota.  

HISTORY: The Cowboys have managed four wins and a draw from their last seven matches against the Panthers. Last season they won 22-18 at CommBank before taking part in a rare golden point draw in Townsville, 30-all.  

KEY STAT: The Cowboys average 29 points in their last four games against the Panthers at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.  

VERDICT: The wheels are getting pretty wobbly on the Cowboys’ trolley and Tom Dearden’s absence is being more keenly felt by the week, with the side struggling to offer much more than Scott Drinkwater’s game-breaking class in recent games.  

But they are very big outsiders at home in a match-up where they have consistently overachieved in the past few seasons. The Panthers at full-strength is a terrifying prospect at the best of times but this doesn’t have a blowout feel about it.  

What it does have is the potential for plenty of points. Each match in Townsville has produced 44-plus points in 2026, with the past four witnessing totals of 48 or  more.  

Prediction: Back Over 50.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: COWBOYS +13.5 / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.69 

Manly’s Kieran Foran-led revival hit a snag last weekend, which sets up a fascinating grudge match with a Manly side that has rocketed back into form.  

FORM: The Sea Eagles’ 13-12 loss to the Bulldogs last week came out of nowhere, only their third in 11 games under Foran.  

The Storm have emerged from a seven-match losing streak to win five of their last six – with their only loss coming against the Bulldogs with Origin players out. They overran the Raiders 42-20 on Sunday after trailing 16-0 early.  

INS AND OUTS: Manly lose Reuben Garrick to concussion, so Josh Feledy will start in the centres. Brandon Wakeham and Kobe Hetherington are also out, replaced in the starting side by Jake Simpkin and Ethan Bullemor. 

Tyran Wishart replaces Melbourne halfback Jahrome Hughes (hamstring), while Harry Grant returns to the starting line-up.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Tom Trbojevic’s return from a nine-week layoff coincided with a rare Manly loss. ‘Turbo’ will be eager for a big game opposite Sua Faalogo, who has scored 12 tries in 14 games.  

HISTORY: Manly has won four of its last six against Melbourne. In 2025, the Storm cruised to a 48-24 win at 4 Pines Park but the Sea Eagles pulled off a gutsy 18-16 upset at AAMI Park.  

KEY STAT: Tom Trbojevic has scored just two tries in 12 games against the Storm – easily his worst strike-rate against any club.  

VERDICT: The Sea Eagles are $1.50 favourites on the back of last week’s wake-up call, with Hughes a huge out for the Storm.  

Manly has conceded more than 18 points just once under Foran and have won four straight at 4 Pines Park. Expect a hard-earned bounce-back win.  

Prediction: Back the Sea Eagles to Win by 1-12 @ $2.85 

SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / UNDER 48.5 POINTS / MOSES LEO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU   

Few would have pegged this as a clash between the bottom two teams at the start of the season – and this home assignment against the last-placed Dragons is unquestionably must-win for the Raiders if they are to pull off a miracle and make the Top 8.  

FORM: The Raiders have lost five of their last six and went down 42-20 to the Storm in Melbourne last week after scoring the opening three tries.  

The Dragons have won just one game – in Round 13 against the Broncos – but they showed further signs of improvement in a 22-20 loss to the Knights last Friday, where they scored four tries to three.  

INS AND OUTS: Simi Sasagi returns for Canberra at centre, pushing Seb Kris to the bench. St George Illawarra’s starting line-up is unchanged.  

KEY MATCH-UP: After some time in NSW camp, it’s time for Ethan Strange to step up as the struggling Raiders’ marquee man. He squares off against Dragons five-eighth Daniel Atkinson, who has had a mixed first season at his new club.  

HISTORY: The Raiders have won five of the teams’ last six encounters, but the ledger was square at one-all in 2025. Canberra won a 28-24 thriller at home in Round 18, while St George Illawarra pulled off a shock 18-12 result in Wollongong four weeks later.  

KEY STAT: The Dragons are 4-16 at GIO Stadium and have lost their five straight there.  

VERDICT: The Raiders are the second-shortest favourites of the weekend, but on recent form they have no right to be and a double-digit line looks too big. If anything, the Dragons have performed comfortably the better of the two cellar dwellers in recent weeks.  

Prediction: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.85 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 12.5 / OVER 52.5 POINTS / SETU TU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SIMI SASAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $11.92 

Plenty has changed since the Tigers’ emphatic win over the Knights in Round 5.  

FORM: The 9-5 Knights are in a share of third but were unconvincing in their wins over the struggling Eels and Dragons either side of a loss to the Storm in their past three.  

The 7-7 Tigers are teetering after losing five of their last seven, going down heavily to the Panthers and Dolphins either side of a Jarome Luai-led win over the Titans at home.  

INS AND OUTS: The Knights welcome Origin reps Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Lucas back, while Jermaine McEwen is back from a club-imposed ban. Fletcher Sharpe reverts to five-eighth and Sandon Smith goes to the bench.  

Adam Doueihi is a huge inclusion for the Tigers with Jock Madden out with concussion. Alex Twal also comes back from injury, nudging Alex Seyfarth to the pine. Starford To’a goes to centre and Jeral Skelton comes in on the wing with Patrick Herbert suffering an injury.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Doueihi was the barometer of the Tigers’ early-season success and his return is a welcome one, while Dylan Brown’s big-money move into the Knights’ No.7 jersey has received a pass mark so far.  

HISTORY: The Tigers have won their last two against the Knights after seven straight losses in the rivalry. The joint venture romped to a 42-22 win at Campbelltown at Round 6 with Sunia Turuva grabbing a hat-trick and Jahream Bula notching a double.  

KEY STAT: Bula has scored six tries in just five games against Newcastle.  

VERDICT: The Tigers are 1-3 outside Sydney this year and have leaked 28-plus points in six of their last seven (including 36 or more in five of those). Doueihi is a huge in but it’s a big ask to expect him to immediately reproduce his early-season form after a big layoff.  

It’s a danger game for the Knights, who have had a shaky few weeks, but they are 4-2 at home this season and should benefit from having a little clear space post Origin two.  

Prediction: Back the Knights to Score Over 29.5 Points @ $1.80 

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / GREG MARZHEW TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SUNIA TURUVA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.44