Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction, Tips & Odds

Dolphins host New Zealand Warriors in Round 17 of the 2026 NRL season at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane on Saturday. Read on for our full match preview, betting tips, and best odds.

The Dolphins are gunning for eight straight wins and looking to wrest the Warriors’ mantle as the biggest challenger to Penrith for the 2026 premiership.

FORM: After a shaky 2-5 start, the third-placed Dolphins are on course for their maiden finals series courtesy of a blistering seven-game winning run – scoring 28-plus points in each. An under-strength side cruised to a 36-22 win over the Tigers in the Sydney wet last Saturday.

The second-placed Warriors responded to two-point losses to the Panthers and Sharks with a patchy yet convincing 38-20 defeat of the Cowboys in Christchurch as spine trio Wayde Egan, Te Maire Martin and Taine Tuaupiki came into their own.

INS AND OUTS: Jackson Ford’s injury sees Tanner Stowers-Smith come into the front-row, while Kurt Capewell’s return from a post-Origin rest pushes Marata Niukore to the Warriors’ bench.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Max Plath, Tom Flegler and Selwyn Cobbo return for the Dolphins after being rested following Origin. Tom Gilbert has been ruled out.

KEY MATCH-UP: At opposite ends of the height scale, rival fullbacks Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Taine Tuaupiki and both enjoying outstanding seasons.

HISTORY: The Warriors lead this rivalry 4-3 with neither side winning consecutive games. The Warriors won 20-18 in an Anzac Day nail-biter in Wellington, while they prevailed 16-12 at Suncorp Stadium last season after Dolphins victories at the venue in 2023 and ’24.

KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has scored seven tries in seven matches, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak six tries in six matches and Herbie Farnworth five tries in five matches in this rivalry.

VERDICT: The Dolphins have been on fire, but this is a tremendous test against a genuine top-shelf rival (given the Roosters had seven Origin players out) since their loss to Warriors in Round 8. They are playing an attractive brand of footy but have discovered some elusive defensive steel.

Ford’s injury means the Warriors are missing six first-choice stars, though their remarkable depth continues to come to the fore.

They are ranked second in attack (equal with the Dolphins) and second in defence, while a strong Suncorp Stadium record with the Warrior Nation in full voice makes them an attractive underdog in what should be a tremendous contest.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.87

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 51.5 POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.43