Saturday’s Best Bets: Rosehill, Flemington, Sunshine Coast

HELLO CAPTAIN (4) was a sickening watch for those who took the shorts about him last start.

I could also be sick myself, having made him my best bet that day, and now I’m buttering up again.

The Chris Waller-trained gelding had won three of his four career starts leading into the 1300m contest at Randwick but was held up badly on the fence and didn’t get out until it was too late, finishing just under a length fourth. He should have won, pure and simple.

He’s at peak fitness now and gets the services of 2kg claiming apprentice Siena Grima.

If the young hoop gets him clear air entering the straight, then he should be hard to hold out.

HAND IN HAND (8) is a French import having her first start for Tony Gollan.

The chestnut filly was last seen in November bolting in to win her maiden at start number three by five lengths at Le Croise-Laroche.

She’s had two trials leading into this first-up assignment, where she has shown good early speed before finishing close thirds in both.

Daniel Moor can use barrier 2 to advantage and drive forward to settle in a prominent position.

WITHIN THE LAW (10) is on the quick back-up after finding the line well to finish 3.26 lengths seventh in last weekend’s Tatt’s Tiara.

The Bjorn Baker-trained filly is well weighted under the set weight conditions of the race and arrives here at peak fitness fourth-up.

While she’s yet to win in four attempts at a mile, she has finished runner-up in three of those, including the Group 1 Flight Stakes and the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, where she missed by just a nose.

She hasn’t won since the 2025 Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes but looks well placed to finally break through.

THEBUDGIESMUGLA (5) ventures north for the Caloundra Cup in super form having won two of his past three races.

The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding had plenty on his rivals last start when winning the Listed Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Rosehill.

That kept his perfect record over this distance intact, with four wins from as many starts.

The outside barrier isn’t ideal, but Dylan Gibbons has plenty of time to find a handy position.

AL DUCA (3) put up a tremendous fight when resuming over this course and distance in heavy conditions last start, only to be nailed on the line.

There was plenty to like about the Clayton Douglas-trained gelding’s performance, given he was forced to work three-wide early and was headed in the straight before fighting back strongly.

He’ll strip fitter here and won over this course and distance when second-up last preparation.

Craig Williams is again in the irons and should give his mount every chance from the low draw.

HELLO CAPTAIN (4) is one I’m keen to follow again on Winter Stakes Day.

The gelding rounded out his debut preparation with an impressive maiden victory before returning this campaign to notch back-to-back wins in strong midweek metropolitan company.

He more than measured up in Saturday grade last start when beaten less than half a length, and with that run expected to bring him to peak fitness, he looks ideally placed to go one better. The booking of in-form apprentice Siena Grima only adds to his appeal, and he’s my best of the day.

LUDLUM (9) made an impression during his short debut preparation last spring and returned in terrific order this campaign, producing a career-best performance to score convincingly in Class 1 company at Seymour.

This is an obvious rise in grade, but he looks ready after maintaining his fitness with a strong trial.

From a middle draw, he should enjoy a soft run in transit and shapes as a leading contender once again.

The Winx Guineas features a clear standout top pick this year in my opinion – WITHIN THE LAW (10).

Within The Law has already proven herself at the highest level, finishing runner-up in both the Champagne Stakes and Flight Stakes in Sydney during her three-year-old season.

Although she’s yet to win in three starts this preparation, each performance has had plenty of merit, most recently when finishing just over three lengths behind Splash Back in the Tatt’s Tiara.

Backing up quickly into a much easier assignment, she looks ready to peak—she’s fit, she’s well placed, and she’ll take a power of beating.

I’m happy to stick with the Bjorn Baker-trained THEBUDGIESMUGLA (5), who has taken his form to another level this preparation. He was dominant in the Winter Cup over 2400m last start and looks to have plenty in his favour again with just 54kg on his back.

Holding his form, he should be right in the finish again.

The wide draw doesn’t concern me given he’s likely to settle off the speed regardless, and with Dylan Gibbons retaining the ride, I think he’ll take plenty of beating.

AL DUCA (3) looks well placed in a Winter Championship Final.

The consistent gelding has finished outside the top two just once in his past five starts, highlighted by his Listed Anniversary Vase victory at Caulfield, while producing several strong performances against quality opposition.

Flemington suits, the booking of Craig Williams is another positive, and from a favourable low draw, he should enjoy every chance to add another feature win to his resume.

MIDNIGHT DYNAMITE (4) is deserving favourite in Winter Stakes betting at Rosehill, and I think he’ll salute for the punters.

The Bjorn Baker-trained Pierata four-year-old is absolutely airborne having won three of his four starts this prep, and I think he can keep the wins coming on Saturday.

With 59kg on his back at Randwick on June 6 he finished second to Cool Jakey in a BM94 but atoned up to the seven furlongs a fortnight later to claim a strong 1.66 length Listed Civic Stakes victory, and this is about that class again.

Undefeated over the 1400m with three of his eight career victories being over this distance, he handles all going and has been especially efficient on Slow tracks which he’ll get this weekend.

Flying through the grades, he had more to give last time out having travelled like the winner a long way from home and putting them away with plenty in reserve.

The map isn’t perfect this time around, but he’s in the groove and I’m finding it hard to poke holes.

If he lands anywhere near the right spot, his turn of foot and current momentum make him a serious threat.

The rails-drawn CHEEKY SMIRK (2) lines-up at a very nice price in the fifth at Rosehill ($13 at time of publish) and I’m happy to take on some of the better fancied in this 3YO’s handicap.

Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou’s progressive All Too Hard gelding has hit a lovely purple patch at the right time and chases his fourth win on the trot now.

First look at Rosehill, but has been excellent this prep saluting at Newcastle, Canterbury and then Randwick at his latest.

Has been hefting some pretty big weights to victory too including 61kg over 1250m to deny Wootton Way in a BM64 on Heavy going two starts ago, which was impressive.

Rose to BM72 level over 1300m on June 20 with 58.5kg and won by a pimple having made up ground from midfield to make it a hat-trick at a blowout price.

Same grade, same distance, which he’s got an excellent record over (7:3-2-0), and sticks with the same weight thanks to William Stanley’s claim.   

Overlooked in the markets again. Suits me.

Check out all of my top Saturday Roughies & Value Plays over at Hendo’s Hopefuls!

WITHIN THE LAW (10) is on the quick back-up and I’m happy to stick with her to salute as favourite, rock hard fit and ready to go.

Bjorn Baker’s class Lucky Vega filly was brave against the older mares hitting the line well for an eye-catching seventh to Splash Back just over three lengths beaten in the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara when making up plenty of late ground.

She drops back in grade and rises to a mile back against her own age here in a far more winnable race.

A half-kilo lower in the weights, she may yet to win over further than 1200m, but from four 1600m starts she’s a three-time runner-up and that’s good enough for me.

Has shown the glimpses of brilliance right from the start when taking out the 2024 Inglis Banner on debut, and she is a Group 2 winner having claimed the Sweet Embrace Stakes in March last year.

That may have been her last visit to the winner’s stall, but she’s more than held her own in elite company atoning for her Slipper failure when second in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes and Group 1 Flight Stakes – both over a mile – as a 2 and 3YO respectively.

She looks set to strike and atone for last weekend where she had absolutely no hope, snagged right out the back in a race that never suited.

Dylan Gibbons comes aboard and will need to nail the ride, but if he can have her within striking distance, she’s one who can quicken and put them away and handle the rain-affected track.

I was originally keen on the price Pounding was paying to win the Caloundra Cup but following his scratching I’ve still landed outside the favourite and have SO YOU ARE (7) to turn the tables on his last start conqueror.

Thebudgiesmugla is the top fancy following his last start Listed Winter Cup (2400m) win at Rosehill in mid-June but for value So You Are is another coming off an eye-catching run in that event who travels further north now chasing atonement.

He was the heavily backed favourite but Stirling Osland’s So You Think four-year-old could only manage to finish third, albeit only three-quarters of a length beaten, off an on-speed run.

While yet to win over further than 2200m, I think he’s got enough in the tank to run out the mile and a half having his third straight run over the distance and getting some favourable weight relief.

He meets Thebudgiesmugla better in the kilos for their rematch, gets options from a better barrier that’ll keep him out of trouble and Ashley Morgan sticks with.

Genuine type who continues to improve and is proven on Heavy going.

Can square the ledger.

Plenty of winning hopes in the Winter Championship Final but for me the value lies in ELECTRIC IMPULSE (8) who looks set to strike third-up at HQ.

Henry Dwyer’s Cable Bay mare is a dual Flemington winner from six starts at the track and is a genuine miler boasting an excellent 1600m strike rate (6:3-0-3).

At her latest on June 6, she was far from disgraced running a length back third in the Swan Hill Cup making up ground from midfield and she presents fitter now back to her preferred course and still in on a light 54kg weight.

Jye McNeil sticks with, she’ll relish the give out of the ground and can outrun her price.