Saturday racing punters chasing roughie tips, value runners, and outsider bets are in for a treat this weekend, with Hendo lining up a fresh batch of long‑priced chances that profile better than their odds suggest!
Punters that took our weekend roughie tips last Saturday were rewarded with a nice collect at Caulfield in the sixth with I’m Foxing flying in at $23.
Can we repeat the magic?
This weekend we’re treated to a host of black-type around the nation including a bumper Caloundra Cup Day program and HQ coming alive for Finals Day at Flemington.
From the sunshine state to the sporting capital, we’ve gone over the cards to find the overlooked hopefuls capable of an upset.
As always, Ladbrokes Value Whisperer has sniffed around for the Saturday roughies. If you’re hunting the best roughies for July 4, these are the ones to keep firmly in sight!
What are the Best Value Outsiders Today?
- No. 2 Cheeky Smirk – Rosehill Race 5
- No. 5 Cool Jakey – Rosehill Race 9
- No. 2 Call Da Vinci – Sunshine Coast Race 6
- No. 12 Pulveriser – Sunshine Coast Race 7
- No. 9 Fine Future – Flemington Race 7
Saturday Roughie Tips for July 4
Rosehill Race 5 – $160,000 Find Your Stakes Winner @ The Chase Handicap (1300m)
No. 2 Cheeky Smirk
The rails-drawn CHEEKY SMIRK (2) lines-up at a very nice price in the fifth at Rosehill ($13 at time of publish) and I’m happy to take on some of the better fancied in this 3YO’s handicap.
Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou’s progressive All Too Hard gelding has hit a lovely purple patch at the right time and chases his fourth win on the trot now.
First look at Rosehill, but has been excellent this prep saluting at Newcastle, Canterbury and then Randwick at his latest.
Has been hefting some pretty big weights to victory too including 61kg over 1250m to deny Wootton Way in a BM64 on Heavy going two starts ago, which was impressive.
Rose to BM72 level over 1300m on June 20 with 58.5kg and won by a pimple having made up ground from midfield to make it a hat-trick at a blowout price.
Same grade, same distance, which he’s got an excellent record over (7:3-2-0), and sticks with the same weight thanks to William Stanley’s claim.
Overlooked in the markets again. Suits me.
| 2. Cheeky Smirk (2) Scratched: | |||
Sunshine Coast Race 6 – Group 3 $300,000 Winx Guineas (1600m)
No. 2 Call Da Vinci
CALL DA VINCI (13) comes into the Winx Guineas field off a string of good runs having placed in four of his last five and lands himself a winnable mile race to finally get back on top.
Bevan Laming’s always honest Under the Louvre gelding hasn’t been first past the post since back-to-back Ipswich wins in May last year but, despite the time between drinks, he’s been competitive in plenty and often goes around at a juicy price as he does again on Saturday.
As a juvenile he was third in the Group 2 BRC Sires’ on a Heavy (10) at 40/1 and also rounded out that year’s Group 1 JJ Atkins trifecta at a blowout starting price.
The talent and wet track form are there, and he’s been in solid form again this prep including his third behind Brave Monarch at Eagle Farm in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas over this distance.
Things didn’t pan out for him in the Group 3 Fred Best Classic when back in distance on May 30 and eased late, but he was quick to get back on the podium just nudged out in a blanket thriller in the TL Cooney at Ipswich at his latest over 1350m.
Gets conditions to suit boasting a good Heavy track record and, while he’s had four 1600m runs without a win, I think he can get the mile at this stage of his prep.
Double figure price is attractive and wouldn’t need to improve much on last start to feature again.
| 2. Call Da Vinci (13) Scratched: | |||
Flemington Race 7 – Listed $200,000 Winter Championship Series Final (1600m)
No. 9 Fine Future
Plenty of money coming for the favourite Al Duca but further down the markets FINE FUTURE (13) shapes up as an attractive each way play.
Stephen Theodore’s consistent Japanese-bred galloper has won two of his past four starts, was very competitive at Morphettville in a Group 3 over the mile at a huge price earlier in the winter and also caught the eye at his latest.
On June 7 he lined-up at double-figures in the Swan Hill Cup with 54kg and crossed just a neck second behind Cartoon Graveyard in an event I think the form out of will stack up here.
Gets the chance to run in the money again in on the same weight and handles a Soft track well enough.
Kayla Crowther continues associations and will have to go back from the gate, which is the only knock, but Fine Future is capable of a strong finish.
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9. Fine Future (13)
J: Kayla Crowther 54kg
71142T: Stephen Theodore
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Rosehill Race 9 – Listed $200,000 Winter Stakes (1400m)
No. 5 Cool Jakey
COOL JAKEY (11) could just prove the Each Way value here in Saturday’s feature race in Sydney.
While not an out and out roughie (paying $8.50 at time of publish) he still looks overs as Joe Pride’s Pierro six-year-old comes into this in good form.
He beat Midnight Dynamite, who starts favourite in the Winter Stakes, over 1300m at Randwick in a BM94 two back despite giving him a kilo carting a hefty 60kg to a one-length victory.
That horse turned the tables in the Listed Civic Stakes over the 1400m on June 20.
Cool Jakey ran two lengths third in that with 2.5kg more than the winner and a wide gate to boot in a performance full of merit which saw him box on well.
Sticks to the seven furlongs which is right within his wheelhouse (16:3-2-5) and is a two-time placegetter from four previous Rosehill assignments.
Set to carry a half-kilo over allocation so meets Midnight Dynamite equal on 57kg and I think that could be the deciding factor to help him flip the script.
The Hyeronimus / Pride partnership often provides good dividends; the horse gets the blinkers on to keep him focused and proven on Heavy going.
He’ll likely push forward from the wide alley to take up front running and he’s fit enough to go all the way.
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5. Cool Jakey (11)
J: Adam Hyeronimus 56.5kg
63313T: Joseph Pride
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Sunshine Coast Race 7 – Listed $500,000 Caloundra Cup (2400m)
No. 12 Pulveriser
PULVERISER (6) is fit and flying getting into the Caloundra Cup on a nice light weight and is overs for mine to run in the money and potentially add to his strong mile and a half record.
The locally trained Preferment six-year-old has just his second start for Kristie Clark-Peoples after winning his stable debut at Ipswich in a BM78 over 2500m on June 20.
That was his second victory at the track on the trot and saw him cart 57kg to a solid 1.23 length win, before which he put 4.5 lengths on the next best in a BM68 over 2200m in the wet.
Dour type who has won two from three over the 2400m and he gets back to his pet home track now where he boasts a 50% winning strike rate.
This is obviously a rise in grade but the drop back to just 53kg keeps him firmly in contention with Ben Thompson retaining the ride.
Needs to match motors with some class types but isn’t out of the mix.
That wraps up my Saturday roughies and value racing plays — a proper mixed bag of overs for anyone keen to capitalise on the overs.
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12. Pulveriser (6)
J: Ben Thompson 53kg
52311T: Kristie Clark-Peoples
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Good luck punters!
Saturday Roughies – FAQs for Punters
What is a roughie?
A roughie is a horse starting at big odds — usually an outsider the market doesn’t expect to win. They’re the runners that don’t have the hype but have just enough form, map or upside to cause a cheeky upset.
Why do punters love backing roughies?
Because roughies can offer serious value if they do get up and win in an upset racing result. You don’t need many to salute — one well‑timed outsider can turn a small stake into a tidy Saturday fill‑up. They’re the fun, higher risk but can produce high‑reward plays that keep punters dreaming.
How do you pick Saturday roughies?
The Value Whisperer at Ladbrokes looks for map advantages, sectional spikes, hidden form, gear changes, and horses dropping back to their preferred trip. If the market’s snoozing and the profile screams improvement, it goes straight onto the Hopefuls list.
Are roughies good for multis?
Absolutely — but with caution. Roughies can juice up a multi beautifully, especially in place legs, but they’re still outsiders for a reason. Smart punters mix them with picks better favoured in the Saturday racing odds to balance risk and reward.
What’s the difference between a roughie and a value runner?
A roughie is a genuine outsider at big odds. A value runner might be shorter in the market but still priced above what its form suggests. In Hendo’s world, both are welcome — as long as they’re overs!
Do roughies actually win often?
Not often — but often enough to make them worth taking a deeper look at. Upsets happen on most Saturday racing cards, and when they do, punters who spotted the angle early get rewarded.
Should beginners bet on roughies?
Beginners can absolutely have a nibble, but roughies are best treated as small‑stake plays. They’re unpredictable, but they’re also a great way to learn how form, maps and conditions create value.