2026 NRL Finals Week 1 Predictions

Two of the most dangerous attacking outfits in the NRL – who both have a questionable defensive capacity – kick off the playoffs in a Friday night eliminator.  

FORM: The Rabbitohs won four of their last five to grab sixth spot, albeit their victories came against three non-finalists and, last Friday, a second-string Roosters team. Their loss was by 19 points to the Warriors.  

The Knights went into the Round 27 bye on a 3-5 run, losing their last two to Manly (44-24) and the Warriors (46-32).  

INS AND OUTS: Tallis Duncan returns in the second-row for Souths, pushing Adam Elliott to the bench with Euan Aitken ruled out. Matt Dufty gets the fullback spot back from Jye Gray.  

Newcastle get Dom Young and Tyson Frizell back from suspension, and Phoenix Crossland returns from injury. Francis Manuleleua has been cleared to play despite dislocating his elbow in the Knights’ last game.  

Cody Hopwood replaces prop Trey Mooney, who suffered a season-ending injury, while Frizell is at prop with Jacob Saifiti rubbed out through suspension.   

KEY MATCH-UP: Latrell Mitchell is the player who can elevate Souths, but veteran opponent Dane Gagai has vast big-match experience.  

HISTORY: The Knights have won four of the teams’ past five encounters, but the 2026 ledger is square. Newcastle prevailed in a 42-38 shootout in Round 9 at home, before Souths turned the tables in a 26-24 thriller at Accor Stadium in Round 19 following a late Knights rally.  

Souths eliminated Newcastle 46-20 during the 2020 playoffs.  

KEY STAT: Alex Johnston has scored 17 tries in just 11 games against the Knights. Greg Marzhew boasts seven tries in seven games against Souths, including two hat-tricks.  

VERDICT: Souths are universally regarded as the biggest danger in the bottom half of the Top 8, but Newcastle can’t be too far behind in that department – though a horror run of late-season injuries took the wind out of their sails.  

Mitchell, David Fifita, Cody Walker and Cam Murray are elite game-breakers, while the Knights have one of the most dangerous back-five contingents in the competition. Losing both starting front-rowers may be too big of an obstacle for the visitors to overcome but they are getting a big start.  

The over seems a solid play, too, with the Knights’ last four producing totals of 54-plus and nine of the Rabbitohs’ last 10 seeing 48-plus points scored.  

Tip: Back Over 47.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: KNIGHTS +7.5 / BOTH TEAMS SCORE 20+ POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TALLIS DUNCAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.07 

The third-placed Dolphins face a daunting road trip on finals debut, jetting to a heaving Go Media Stadium to take on the second-placed Warriors.  

FORM: The Warriors achieved a club record 18 wins by taking out their last six matches, though some defensive frailties on the edges were exposed in their last three wins over the Rabbitohs (45-26), a 12-man Knights (46-32) and the Sea Eagles (31-30).  

The Dolphins responded to a 66-0 loss to the Sharks in Round 19 by winning their last seven games. The made a strong statement with a 26-12 defeat of the Roosters in Round 26, but they were unconvincing in a 24-20 win over the Titans last weekend.  

INS AND OUTS: Jackson Ford returns from a 12-week layoff on the bench, bumping Eddie Ieremia-Toeava to the No.18 jersey. Leka Halasima, Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell return from a week off, while Taine Tuaupiki retains the fullback spot with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad staying on DWZ’s wing. 

A full-strength Dolphins side welcomes back Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and Kulikefu Finefeuaki from one-week injury layoffs. Jake Averillo, Brian Pouniu and Tevita Naufahu all drop to the reserves.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Te Maire Martin was magnificent in his first game in a month last week, laying on three tries and having a major hand in three more. Isaiya Katoa is one of the best No.7s in the game but is on finals debut.  

HISTORY: The clubs have split their eight encounters four wins apiece, with the last six decided by four points or less and neither team winning more than one game in a row. This season, the Warriors won 20-18 in Wellington and the Dolphins struck late to win 26-24 in Brisbane.   

KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has scored nine tries in eight games for the Dolphins against the Warriors.  

The Warriors have not won a week one finals match since 2008.   

VERDICT: The Warriors’ intensity has dropped off in recent weeks – but their competition-leading attack has been enough for them to keep winning. With the stakes raised and troops returning, expect them to find the same relentless that proved too much for the Panthers at home in Round 23.  

Martin and Tuaupiki were outstanding in a patchy team display last week, while the Warriors’ contingent of middle forwards is without peer in the NRL.   

The Dolphins boast perhaps the NRL’s most potent back-five, they have a classy halves combo and a host of forwards are enjoying breakout campaigns with a bench perhaps only the Warriors can match.  

But on finals debut, this is a hostile environment to come to and the Warriors should be primed to go up a gear. 

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: WARRIORS BY 1-12 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHARNZE NICOLL-KLOKSTAD ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $73.12 

Cronulla and North Queensland hit the finals with all the momentum of a car with three flat tyres, but one of these teams will nevertheless progress to a semi-final.  

FORM: The wheels fell off for the Sharks in the closing rounds, losing four of their last five to slip to fifth. Following an inexplicable 38-18 defeat to the Eels, and under-strength side was a fraction unlucky in a 24-20 loss to the Storm in Round 27.   

The eighth-placed Cowboys lost four of their last seven – including a record-shattering 82-12 loss to the Roosters – while their wins were over the battling Broncos, Titans and Tigers. A relatively full-strength line-up was beaten 50-30 by the out-of-contention Raiders at home last Saturday.  

INS AND OUTS: Braydon Trindall is a huge in for the Ssharks, and while Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey, KL Iro and Teig Wilton are back after a Round 27 rest, and Tom Hazelton returns from a one-week ban on the bench.  

Griffin Neame, Jeremiah Nanai and Zac Laybutt are all back from injury for the Cowboys. Reuben Cotter received a downgrade on his high tackle charge and is free to play.  

KEY MATCH-UP: The tone needs to be set up front – meaning Addin Fonua-Blake has to make a big statement opposite Jason Taumalolo, who has enjoyed an impressive renaissance in 2026.  

HISTORY: The Sharks have won 14 of their last 17 against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys won their only encounter to date this season – 46-34 in Townsville in Round 8.  

The clubs have a rich finals history, meeting six times in September since 2013 and chalking up three wins apiece.  

KEY STAT: The Sharks have scored at least 22 points in their last 14 games against the Cowboys – and 26-plus in all but one of those.   

VERDICT: The Cowboys are the most inscrutable team in the NRL in 2026, haemorrhaging points in too many games and suffering listless losses to bad teams – but also beating four of this year’s finalists. They haven’t been great interstate travellers this season, either.  

The Sharks look to be another team merely making up the numbers, but the return of Trindall – their most reliable linchpin, despite the occasional form spike from Hynes – could be the catalyst for a timely turnaround.  

Tip: Back Sharks/Sharks Half-time/Full-time Double @ $1.80 

SGM: SHARKS -7.5 / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRAYDON TRINDALL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOM CHESTER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.00 

The minor premiers are the shortest favourites of week one, but can the out-of-sorts Roosters channel a contender-worthy performance against the Panthers from only four weeks ago this Sunday and jag a prelim spot?  

FORM: The Panthers went on a poor 3-5 run before winning their last three games against the Storm (22-14), Bulldogs (24-10) and Tigers (38-10) to clinch top spot.  

The Roosters’ eight-match winning streak culminated in a gritty 12-6 win over the Panthers, but they’ve lost all three games since to the Tigers (25-24), Dolphins (26-12) and – with a second-string team – the Rabbitohs (50-20) as well as losing halfback Sam Walker to injury.   

INS AND OUTS: Isaah Yeo is back in the Panthers’ starting pack after a successful return from the bench last week. Lindsay Smith goes to prop and Liam Henry to the bench. Scott Sorensen is back on the interchange after a rest last week, replacing Luron Patea.  

James Tedesco, Billy Smith, Rob Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Daly Cherry-Evans, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins and Siua Wong are back for the Roosters after being rested. Angus Crichton and Victor Radley also come back, while DCE teams up in the halves with Hugo Savala. 

KEY MATCH-UP: There’s huge individual battles across the park, but it has to be Cleary versus Cherry-Evans. DCE has the No.7 keys again for the rest of the Roosters’ campaign, while Cleary has been arguably the NRL’s best player in 2026. Cleary leads the direct head-to-head 15-10 with one draw. 

HISTORY: The Panthers have won 12 of their last 14 against the Roosters, but the honours were shared this season. The Roosters bounced back from a 40-4 loss at Allianz Stadium in Round 4 with a gritty 12-6 victory at CommBank Stadium in Round 24.   

The Panthers have won four of the clubs’ five finals appearances, most recently carving out a 30-10 qualifying final result in 2024.  

KEY STAT: The Panthers have won 16 of 19 finals games since 2020. The Roosters have won only three of 11 finals games following their back-to-back premierships in 2018-19.  

VERDICT: The Panthers haven’t been setting the world on fire, but they look to be timing their run nicely and habitually go up a notch when the finals arrive – winning their last four week one matches by at least 16 points. The title favourites are healthy again and have an air of supreme confidence.  

The Roosters’ drop-off has been poorly timed, losing all semblance of momentum. Cherry-Evans and Savala not getting a run in the halves together prior to the finals is not ideal and Tedesco played one of the last five rounds. Add in long-running difficulties in this rivalry, and the Chooks are up against it. 

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.83 

SGM: PANTHERS TO SCORE OVER 26.5 POINTS / ROOSTERS TO SCORE UNDER 16.5 POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.08