Six teams are still in the hunt for the 2026 AFL Premiership, with two mouth-watering Semi-Finals on the menu this weekend.
We’re heading west on Friday night as Fremantle looks to silence the doubters against Geelong, before the Lions return to the Gabba on Saturday night with plenty to prove against Adelaide – in what could be Taylor Walker’s final outing for the Crows.
It’s win or go home for all four teams, so we’ve run the rule over both clashes to bring you our thoughts, analysis and best-value betting plays ahead of the Semi-Finals.
There’ll be no time for Wharfie Time on Friday night, with Fremantle staring down the barrel of a straight-sets finals exit.
Sam Mitchell masterminded one of the season’s biggest wins last week, with Hawthorn producing a stunning 32-point Qualifying Final upset. The Hawks brought a fierce, physical edge that disrupted Fremantle’s usually methodical ball movement.
The Dockers were on the back foot from the outset and never looked capable of mounting a serious comeback – a worrying sign ahead of a clash with a battle-hardened Geelong side that welcomed the very best of Patrick Dangerfield in last week’s win over Carlton.
The Cats were far from flawless in the opening half, but they now travel to Perth knowing the pressure rests firmly on the home side. That’s despite the last two meetings between these teams going down to the wire.
Fremantle squandered a sizeable lead at the Cattery in Round 1 before falling 10 points short, but hit back in Round 15 with a nine-point victory on home soil.
The Dockers controlled possession in that most recent meeting and did a terrific job restricting Geelong’s inside 50s. However, if the Cats can bring the same early pressure that Hawthorn applied – and they’ve ranked among the competition’s top five tackling teams all season – this could become a nervy night for the minor premiers.
Prediction: Geelong to Cover (+9.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.85
Player Pick: Patrick Voss 2+ Goals @ $1.90
Was last week simply an off night, or has the Brisbane dynasty finally run its course?
Chris Fagan has more selection headaches to solve after the Lions suffered a huge reality check against an undermanned Sydney outfit, falling to a shock 53-point defeat in one of the season’s biggest upsets.
Fagan admitted post-game that his team underestimated the Swans’ depth, but perhaps more concerning was the way Brisbane’s defence conceded multiple goals to Logan McDonald, Tom Papley and Charlie Curnow.
A similar challenge awaits this weekend, with the in-form Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine leading the Crows’ attack. Adelaide made light work of a tiring Bulldogs outfit last week and is starting to look every inch a genuine Grand Final dark horse, with captain Jordan Dawson setting the standard.
You have to go all the way back to 2018 for Adelaide’s last win at the Gabba, but this experienced Crows team is not one Brisbane can afford to underestimate – just as the Lions learned the hard way against Sydney.
That said, Oscar Allen showed plenty in patches during the loss, while a heavy defeat in the opening week of finals could be exactly the wake-up call Brisbane needs.
Back-to-back defeats haven’t been a regular feature of the Fagan era, but the Lions need more spark through the engine room after Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale both endured quiet outings last week.
Brisbane has been hot and cold throughout the season, and questions remain over whether the Lions still have the hunger to claim a third straight flag. However, with plenty of finals experience in the bank – and Adelaide’s away form still a concern – it’s easier to back Brisbane to bounce back than take a punt on a Crows boilover.
Prediction: Lions to Cover (-19.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Lions 40+ @ $3.05
Player Pick: Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals @ $1.83