The NRL pressure valve cranks up in a massive Round 21, with seven matches – including two fierce derbies – to have a monumental impact on the Top 8 race, while the eighth clash is crucial in the battle to avoid the wooden spoon.
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers Predictions
After a series of recent upset losses, the competition-leading Panthers need a win against an out-of-contention Eels side eager to reprise their 2025 spoiler role.
FORM: The Panthers have dropped three of their last four games – shock defeats to the Titans, Cowboys and Broncos.
The 15th-placed Eels have won two of their last four games but went down 28-12 to the Roosters before getting the Round 20 bye.
INS AND OUTS: Mitch Moses is back for the Eels, pairing with Ronald Volkman in the halves. Luca Moretti is back from concussion. The Panthers are unchanged with Mitch Kenny still sidelined.
KEY MATCH-UP: The triumphant NSW Origin halves duo square off in the No.7 jerseys – and they’ve had some superb NRL duels over the years.
HISTORY: After the Eels won four straight regular-season matches in 2022-23, the Panthers have won the clubs’ last five encounters – including a 48-20 thrashing in Round 4 this year.
KEY STAT: Tom Jenkins has scored in all four career appearances against the Eels.
VERDICT: The points just aren’t flowing for the Panthers and they’re uncharacteristically falling short in the clutch. It will click again as the finals approach, but the first order of business will be knuckling down and getting a hard-earned two points against a keen rival.
The Eels have grabbed some gritty wins and had some honourable losses over the past couple of months, while Moses’ second appearance in 11 rounds is a significant boost that could keep this one tight.
Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+15.5) @ $1.96
SGM: PANTHERS BY 11-20 / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / TOM JENKINS TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / BRIAN KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $45.53
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters Predictions
After back-to-back losses, the pressure is ramping up on a Knights side preparing to host a Roosters outfit that is still right in the minor premiership mix.
FORM: The sixth-placed Knights are coming off back-to-back two-point losses to the Rabbitohs and Sharks. They were largely outplayed in both before producing stirring late fight-backs.
The 12-5 Roosters have won four in a row, grinding out a 14-6 win over the Storm last Friday with a couple of Origin stars missing.
INS AND OUTS: Fletcher Hunt replaces Dane Gagai (calf) in Newcastle’s only change. The Roosters welcome James Tedesco and Robert Toia back, pushing Cody Ramsey and Hugo Savala to the bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: Dylan Brown needs to start playing to his price-tag as the Knights’ season nears a crossroads, while Sam Walker’s marvellous first Origin campaign can be a springboard to taking the 2026 premiership by the scruff of the neck.
HISTORY: The Roosters have won 15 of their last 17 against the Knights, including the last five straight. Their Round 7 clash at Allianz Stadium finished 38-24 in the Tricolours’ favour.
KEY STAT: The clubs’ last three encounters in Newcastle were decided by margins of four points or less.
VERDICT: The Knights are at risk of being pulled right back into that midtable logjam with a third straight loss – and it’s no secret they need to start better. Defensively they have remained solid but points are proving harder to come by as the NRL’s set restart crackdown has softened.
Continuing to fly under the radar, the Roosters are getting the job down without too much fuss – but still without any overwhelming conviction. The Knights have won five straight at McDonald Jones Stadium and are only slight outsiders, but the under shapes as a more enticing play.
Tip: Back Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.98
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / SAM WALKER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DANIEL TUPOU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DOM YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $122.57
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm Predictions
Souths are clinging to a place in the Top 8, while Melbourne’s finals hopes are slipping away. This is huge for both injury-hit clubs.
FORM: The seventh-placed Rabbitohs’ momentum from three wins in four games stalled via a 34-24 loss in Canberra on Saturday.
The Storm bookended a late 22-18 home win over the Titans with away defeats to the Sea Eagles (30-4) and Roosters (14-6). They are now 11th and four points adrift of the Top 8.
INS AND OUTS: Cameron Murray and Tallis Duncan are out for Souths. Lachlan Hubner and Latrell Siegwalt come in. David Fifita has also copped a suspension in a huge blow.
Melbourne is boosted by Jahrome Hughes’ return, while Moses Leo comes onto the wing following Will Warbrick’s season-ending injury.
KEY MATCH-UP: Former dummy-half tandem act Brandon Smith and Harry Grant are set for a fascinating battle with both in excellent form.
HISTORY: The Storm boast an incredible 36-8 all-time record against the Rabbitohs. But Souths have managed three wins from the last eight encounters, including a 48-6 beatdown at AAMI Park in Round 8.
KEY STAT: Alex Johnston has scored 19 tries in 16 games against the Storm, including 10 in his last five.
VERDICT: The Storm are the narrowest of favourites on the road. Hughes is a huge in with Munster sidelined but the reality is the heavyweights have rarely performed to reputation all year.
Injuries look set to derail another Rabbitohs finals bid with the absence of Murray and Duncan very poorly timed. Souths’ games have been reliably high-scoring – only one total below 42 points and 11 of 48-plus – so that option holds most appeal in a coin-flip game.
Tip: Back Over 46.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / BOTH TEAMS SCORE 20+ POINTS / CODY WALKER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SUA FAALOGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.59
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers Predictions
It’s must-win for both teams, but they’re trending in opposite directions form-wise.
FORM: The 8-10 Raiders have chalked up three straight wins for the first time in 2026, including impressive victories over the Bulldogs (40-16) and Rabbitohs (34-24) in the past two rounds.
The 14th-placed Tigers are in absolute freefall, with a 32-0 loss to the Bulldogs on Saturday their fifth straight defeat.
INS AND OUTS: Tom Starling starts at hooker for Canberra with Owen Pattie out suspended, while Jayden Brailey joins the bench. Hudson Young’s season-ending injury sees Zac Hosking go to second-row and Morgan Smithies slot in at lock.
Adam Doueihi has been cleared to line up for the Tigers after getting a judiciary downgrade, but Latu Fainu wasn’t so lucky. Patrick Herbert returns in the centres and Sunia Turuva moves from wing to centre, with Junior Tupou and Faaletino Tavana named on the flanks.
KEY MATCH-UP: Dummy-half live-wires Starling and Api Koroisau have huge roles to play for their respective sides.
HISTORY: The Raiders have won 10 of their last 12 against the Tigers, but the Tigers powered to a 33-14 win at Leichhardt earlier this year.
KEY STAT: The Tigers have lost their last five in Canberra, averaging less than 13 points.
VERDICT: Don’t count the Raiders out of the finals race just yet – 74 points in the past fortnight against fellow Top 8 hopefuls suggests they’ve turned a corner.
Young’s injury is a huge blow going forward, but at home – where their only loss from their last four was to the Roosters – they should be far too good for a Tigers side that is going worse than every team in the NRL by some margin.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-13.5) @ $1.85
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / ZAC HOSKING ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAEO WEEKES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ETHAN STRANGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $63.41
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Warriors Predictions
The Bulldogs are just a win outside the Top 8 ahead of this massive showdown with the second-placed Warriors at Homebush.
FORM: The 10th-placed Bulldogs have won four of their last five, bouncing back from a dismal 40-16 loss to Canberra by smashing the Tigers 32-0.
The 12-5 Warriors have also won three of their last four, following up a 32-6 win over the Tigers with a scrappy 20-12 home defeat of the Dragons last Saturday.
INS AND OUTS: Stephen Crichton returns after a one-week break at five-eighth, with Sean O’Sullivan going to the bench. Viliame Kikau will start after a successful return off the bench in Round 20. The Warriors are unchanged with Jackson Ford the only first-choice player still to return from injury.
KEY MATCH-UP: Kiwis teammates Leo Thompson and James Fisher-Harris will look to set the tone up front. JFH is putting together one of the best seasons of his illustrious career in a Warriors prop rotation regarded as arguably the NRL’s best.
HISTORY: After losing the teams’ previous six clashes, the Bulldogs have won three straight against the Warriors – most recently a 32-14 win in the wet at Accor Stadium late last season.
KEY STAT: Both teams have reached double-figures in 34 of their last 35 encounters.
VERDICT: This could be season-defining for the Bulldogs, who produced a timely bounce-back for their biggest win of 2026 last week – racking up their equal-highest score and conceding less than 10 points for the first time.
But can an ever-changing spine and a middling pack combat a well-oiled Warriors machine who have only lost one game to a team currently sitting lower than sixth (a then-in-form Tigers)?
The Warriors’ pack is absolutely humming and a spine featuring a couple of names not in most pundits’ reckoning at the start of the year is creating enough opportunities for two of the best finishers in the game out wide.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.70
SGM: WARRIORS WIN / OVER 42.5 POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATT BURTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $77.12
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos Predictions
The fuse has been lit for colossal Queensland derby between the seventh-placed Cowboys and a Broncos side that needs to win every game.
FORM: After gutsy upset wins over Penrith and Manly, North Queensland let an early two-try lead slip in a disappointing 36-16 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday.
The Broncos halted an eight-game slide in sensational fashion to keep their season alive, with Reece Walsh steering the premiers to a 16-14 defeat of Penrith.
INS AND OUTS: Jake Clifford comes back in to partner Tom Dearden in the halves, pushing Jaxon Purdue to centre and Zac Laybutt to the bench. Tom Mikaele returns from concussion at prop.
The Broncos have lost Brendan Piakura to concussion indefinitely. Xavier Willison goes to the second-row with Preston Riki to start at prop. Billy Walters is on the six-man bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: Reece Walsh was incredible against Penrith and it’s clear any chance the Broncos have of reaching the playoffs rests on his shoulders. Scott Drinkwater has been a regular match-winner for the Cowboys in 2026 and should thrive from Dearden’s return.
HISTORY: The Cowboys snapped a six-match losing streak against the Broncos with a thrilling 35-31 victory at Suncorp Stadium in Round 6
KEY STAT: The Broncos have scored 26-plus points in their last eight matches against the Cowboys.
VERDICT: It was only one game, but there was so much to like about the Broncos’ – and Walsh’s – performance against the NRL’s benchmark team last week.
It was tough with moments of sheer brilliance, while displaying the sort of intent and desperation that has been missing all year…and the qualities that carried them to the 2025 title.
The Cowboys remain inscrutable week-to-week, beating the best sides around then losing heavily to teams coming off 60-point hidings. These two points are so vital to both teams, but the Broncos are some more proven in games they have to win.
It’s all worth noting seven of the last 10 derbies produced 50-plus points.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win @ $1.70
SGM: BRONCOS BY 1-12 POINTS / OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.52
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans Predictions
Last hosts second-last – and both teams are playing some good footy.
FORM: The Dragons’ form turnaround has garnered a 24-10 win over the Tigers and somewhat unlucky 20-12 loss to the Warriors in their past two outings.
The Titans have won three of their last six, following up a gallant loss in Melbourne with a 38-32 home upset of Manly.
INS AND OUTS: The Dragons are unchanged, while the Titans bring Jaylan De Groot into the centres for the unavailable AJ Brimson and Kurt Morrin returns from injury on the bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: Clint Gutherson will look to provide the inspiration in his 250th NRL game. Keano Kini has been electric at the back for the Titans throughout 2026.
HISTORY: The Dragons have won five of their last seven against the Titans, but the Titans carved out a 22-14 victory on the Gold Coast in Round 4.
KEY STAT: The Titans have conceded 148 points in their last four away games against the Saints.
VERDICT: The Dragons have shown considerable backbone since their disastrous 0-11 start, while confirmation of Dean Young’s fulltime appointment and ‘Gutho’s’ milestone match may provided a bit more impetus in this home assignment.
The Titans are showing signs of rediscovering their trademark freewheeling attack while Josh Hannay continues to oversee a change in the club’s defensive DNA. The Titans are just 1-6 interstate in 2026, though, and the Saints look the slightly better bet in a pick ’em.
Tip: Back the Dragons to Win @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / ARAMA HAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN EGAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $67.84
Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks Predictions
Manly is outside the Top 8 and grappling with an all-too-familiar injury blow. Can the Sea Eagles get back on track by rolling in-form Cronulla at home?
FORM: The Sea Eagles are losing their grip on the season, dropping their last three games to the Eels, Cowboys and Titans – the latter potentially costing them Tom Trbojevic for the season.
The fourth-placed Sharks are flying with seven wins from their last eight games, following up a 66-0 rout of the Dolphins with a gritty 20-18 eclipse of the Knights.
INS AND OUTS: Lehi Hopoate replaces Tom Trbojevic at fullback, so Tolu Koula goes to the wing and Josh Feledy comes in at centre. Ben Trbojevic returns from concussion but Jackson Shereb has been ruled out. Nic Lenaz is named in the No.14.
Cronulla get Jesse Ramien back, while Siosifa Talakai and Jesse Colqhoun have been named to return on the bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: Hopoate is a match-winner in his own right and should relish the chance in the No.1, while Will Kennedy has been central to the Sharks’ success.
HISTORY: The Sharks have taken control of this rivalry after winning only two of 19 against the Sea Eagles from 2008-19, winning seven of the clubs’ last eight clashes. They held off a depleted Manly 28-22 at home in Round 13.
KEY STAT: Cronulla has scored 20-plus points in 10 straight games against Manly.
VERDICT: The faint silver lining of yet another serious injury to ‘Turbo’ is the Sea Eagles started going off the boil when he came back from a layoff, winning just one of five since then after going on a superb 5-2 run without him. But they’ve certainly lost their lustre since the early stages of Foran’s reign.
The Sharks’ past couple of months has been excellent and Nicho Hynes is starting to fire, as is Addin Fonua-Blake, alongside trusty underrated performers Trindall, Kennedy, Brailey et al. They also need to keep winning to cement that all-important top four spot.
Manly’s only loss in six games at 4 Pines Park under Foran was in golden point – we should see some resilience resurface from the hosts after a rough patch.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SEA EAGLES WIN / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / NICHO HYNES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.98