2026 NRL Round 22 Tips & Predictions

The Roosters head to Townsville aiming to cement their newfound top-two standing, while the Cowboys’ Top 8 spot is far from secure.

FORM: The Cowboys have won three of their last four, bouncing back from a 20-point loss to the Dolphins with a gritty 18-10 derby defeat of the Broncos.

The Roosters have won five straight but made hard work of a 23-22 win over a badly injury-hit Newcastle side on the road last Friday.

INS AND OUTS: Soni Luke replaces Cowboys hooker Reed Mahoney (concussion), while Tom Mikaele starts for the suspended Griffin Neame.

The Roosters bring in Tommy Talau and Hugo Savala for injured duo Daniel Tupou and Billy Smith.

KEY MATCH-UP: James Tedesco scored a brilliant hat-trick last week, while Scott Drinkwater remains the Cowboys’ most dynamic attacking player.

HISTORY: The Cowboys have won three of their last four against the Roosters, including a gutsy 18-12 Magic Round upset earlier this season.

KEY STAT: Braidon Burns has scored four tries in his last three games against the Roosters.

VERDICT: As well as having a significant bearing on the ladder, this is an excellent measuring stick for both clubs. The Cowboys are gradually proving their worth but still have a shocker in them – their last three losses were all by 18-plus points.

The Roosters’ win-loss record is impressive, but their victories – more recently against struggling or severely undermanned teams – have remained unconvincing. The Cowboys have been far from reliable at home but shape as an attractive underdog here.

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90

SGM: COWBOYS WIN / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / HEILUM LUKI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.74

Ambling towards the wooden spoon, the Dragons will look to play the role of spoiler against a Dolphins team eager to stay in the top-four hunt.

FORM: The 2-16 Dragons followed up a gutsy 20-12 away loss to the Warriors with a disappointing 38-18 home defeat to the Titans last week.

The fifth-placed Dolphins have won nine of their last 11, responding to a 66-0 humiliation at the hands of Cronulla with a 36-16 victory over the in-form Cowboys before enjoying their last bye in Round 21.

INS AND OUTS: The Dragons are unchanged, while the Dolphins welcome back Jack Bostock and Isaiya Katoa is listed in the reserves.

KEY MATCH-UP: Bostock and Valentine Holmes are set for an intriguing centre duel.

HISTORY: The Dolphins are 3-2 against the Dragons, including a 56-6 demolition at Suncorp Stadium in the teams’ sole 2025 clash.

KEY STAT: All five of these clubs’ encounters were won by the home side – all by margins of 14 points or more. The Dragons prevailed at Wollongong in 2023 and Kogarah in 2024.

VERDICT: This should be a free hit for the Dolphins, who have so much to play for and could do with a for-and-against boost. The memory of their horrific defeat to the Sharks is still fresh, but the Dolphins no longer lose to teams they shouldn’t.

Katoa would be a huge in but even without him they should be far too classy for a rudderless Saints side that probably just wants the season to end.

Tip: Back the Dolphins to Score Over 31.5 Points @ $1.85

SGM: DOLPHINS -13.5 / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK BOSTOCK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TYRELL SLOAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.15

As the injuries and losses pile up for the Storm, the surging Bulldogs will be going for the jugular at AAMI Park.

FORM: The Storm’s losses to the Roosters and Rabbitohs in the past fortnight leave them in 12th with an 8-11 record, while Harry Grant has joined Cam Munster in the casualty ward.

The ninth-placed Bulldogs have won five of their last six and are coming off their best win in months, bullying the high-flying Warriors 18-6 in Sydney last Saturday.

INS AND OUTS: Trent Toelau starts at hooker with Harry Grant sidelined, with Hayden Watson to debut off the bench. Manaia Waitere lines up at centre for Jack Howarth (shoulder). The Bulldogs are unchanged.

KEY MATCH-UP: Leo Thompson is slowly proving his worth at Canterbury and will look to back up a strong showing opposite James Fisher-Harris with another aggressive display against Melbourne pack spearhead Stefano Utoikamanu.

HISTORY: The Storm have won 10 of their last 12 against the Bulldogs, but they went down 30-20 at Accor Stadium in Round 12.

KEY STAT: The Bulldogs are chasing two wins over the Storm in the same season for the first time since 2014.

VERDICT: The Storm are on the ropes – they’ve rarely looked the team of the past two decades this season, and adding Grant to the injured list with Jahrome Hughes already underdone is a real death knell for their campaign.

Last week was just one contender-worthy performance from the Bulldogs…but gee it was compelling. Kikau and Crichton, two of the game’s supreme game-breakers, set the tone with their enthusiasm. If they do so again, the rest of the Bulldogs should follow suit and grind out another 2025-style win.

Expect another low-scorer with six of the Bulldogs’ last seven tallying 42 points or less, including three with 24 or less.

Tip: Back Under 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SUA FAALOGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB PRESTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $14.76

The out-of-contention Titans have found some form, which could spell danger for a wobbling Warriors outfit.

FORM: Gold Coast has won back-to-back games for the first time under Josh Hannay, upsetting Manly 38-32 at home and thrashing St George Illawarra 38-18 on the road.

The Warriors slipped to third after following up a shaky 20-12 home win over the Dragons with a convincing 18-6 away loss to the Bulldogs.

INS AND OUTS: AJ Brimson and Kurt Morrin return for the Titans, with Jaylan de Groot and Siale Faeamani making way. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns to the No.1 jersey with Taine Tuaupiki out injured.

KEY MATCH-UP: Rookie Titans No.7 Zane Harrison is growing in confidence by the week, while Te Maire Martin needs to rediscover his Midas touch after a couple of subpar games.

HISTORY: After losing six of the clubs’ previous seven encounters, the Warriors have won their last two against the Titans: 32-18 in late-2025 at Cbus Super Stadium and 28-20 at home in Round 7 this year after racing to a 22-0 halftime lead.

KEY STAT: Warriors winger Alofiana Khan-Pereira has scored nine doubles in 23 NRL games since the start of 2025, including in his first game against his former club the Titans earlier this season.

VERDICT: This is crunch time for the Warriors – unconvincingly picking off some low-hanging fruit papered over some cracks and they were flat as a pancake last week.

Several players’ form has dipped, but the key is getting forward dominance; the Warriors are 12-0 when they make more metres than the opposition and 0-6 when they don’t.

The Titans have unlocked something in the past fortnight – topping 30 points for two of only three times in 2026 – and look like they’re enjoying their footy, despite the finals ship having sailed. This has the makings of an upset with the Titans enjoying more than their share of success in this rivalry.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / CHARNZE NICOLL-KLOKSTAD ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAYDEN CAMPBELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.02

The Raiders inched back into finals contention, but their revival meets a gruelling litmus test in the form of a Mudgee showdown with the Panthers.

FORM: Canberra has moved to 10th by winning its last four, piling on the points since their Round 18 bye against the Bulldogs (40-16), Rabbitohs (34-24) and Tigers (56-10).

The Panthers are still struggling to shake off the post-Origin cobwebs, losing three of four then finding the lowly Eels a tough nut to crack in a 24-18 win last week.

INS AND OUTS: Dylan Edwards is still unavailable for Penrith, allowing rookie Jaxen Edgar another opportunity. Blaize Talagi has been axed in favour of Jack Cogger. Canberra get Owen Pattie back from suspension, pushing Jayden Brailey out of the side.

KEY MATCH-UP: Raiders duo Joe Tapine and Corey Horsburgh must set the tone up against fellow representative props Moses Leota and Lindsay Smith if the visitors are to be a chance.

HISTORY: The Panthers have won six of their last eight against the Raiders. After losing both sole encounters in 2024 and ’25 – including the ‘Miracle of Mudgee’ in the latter – Penrith prevailed 30-18 in a high-quality contest in Canberra in Round 10 this year.

KEY STAT: The Raiders are chasing consecutive away wins for the first time since June last year.

VERDICT: The Raiders have real momentum again, but they need to keep winning. The backdrop of Mudgee – particularly after last year’s epic win over the Panthers – might be enough to keep the roll going. Pattie is an important in and the Green Machine are looking more like the 2025 table-toppers.

The Panthers are struggling for their usual rhythm and ruthlessness after an arduous rep period, while their cover record with a big start is dreadful.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+9.5) @ $1.90

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / NATHAN CLEARY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAEO WEEKES @ $56.71

The Broncos’ title defence is all but done, but will that open the door for the finals-bound Knights to grab a crucial win after a couple of devastating injury blows?

FORM: The Broncos have won just one of their last 10, following up a heroic 14-12 upset of Penrith with an 18-10 defeat to North Queensland.

The seventh-placed Knights have lost their last three, though they could hardly have been more gallant in a 23-22 loss to the Roosters with Kalyn Ponga out, and Dylan Lucas and Dylan Brown exiting with season-ending injuries.

INS AND OUTS: Gehamat Shibasaki drops out of the Broncos’ line-up with Deine Mariner moving to centre and Grant Anderson recalled on the wing. Va’a Semu replaces Preston Riki, while Ben Hunt and Billy Walters are both on the bench.

Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai return for Newcastle, while Sandon Smith and Fletcher Sharpe will combine in the halves with Dylan Brown gone for the year. Jeremine McEwen comes in following second-rower Dylan Lucas’ season-ending injury.

KEY MATCH-UP: Queensland teammates Ponga and Walsh face off in the No.1 jerseys – it doesn’t get much better.

HISTORY: The Broncos are on a six-match winning streak against the Knights, including a 46-12 romp in Round 25 in Newcastle in their only 2025 encounter.

KEY STAT: Deine Mariner scored doubles in his last two games against the Knights.

VERDICT: With the finals a near-impossibility now for the Broncos, it will fascinating to see which version of the enigmatic champs turns up. In 2024, they limped to the finish line with only three wins from their last 13 games.

The Knights are reeling from their most recent injury blows, but they’ve navigated key-player absences well all season and boast solid depth and versatility in their squad. Last week’s performance was so hearty – anything resembling that commitment should be enough to win…if Ponga plays.

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.83

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.33

The form team of the NRL, Cronulla look to keep the roll going at home against South Sydney.

FORM: The fourth-placed Sharks have won eight of their last nine, pummelling Manly 48-12 last Sunday.

The sixth-placed Rabbitohs have won four of their last six but have been anything but consistent. They followed up a 34-24 loss in Canberra with a vital 28-26 eclipse of the depleted Storm in Round 21.

INS AND OUTS: Tom Hazelton is back and Addin Fonua-Blake is named to start for Cronulla. Hohepa Puru (concussion) is missing from the bench.

Souths get Sean Keppie back on the bench, Lachlan Hubner is at lock, John Radel at prop and Keaon Koloamatagi in the second-row, while Tallis Duncan could be a chance of returning after being named in the reserves.

KEY MATCH-UP: Nicho Hynes is on the best form streak since he won the Dally M Medal, while youngster Ashton Ward is growing into Souths’ No.7 jersey.

HISTORY: The Rabbitohs snapped a five-match losing streak against the Sharks with an emphatic 36-12 victory at Accor Stadium in Round 10.

KEY STAT: Cronulla has won six of its last seven against Souths at Ocean Protect Stadium.

VERDICT: The Sharks are absolutely on fire. Whether they can withstand the September blowtorch finally is another question – but at present there’s no team you’d rather not play. Hynes finding belated consistency gives this side another dimension.

Souths are scraping together enough wins to stay on track for the finals, but with no Mitchell, Fifita or Murray they could be in for a rough afternoon, having struggled to contain in-form teams for most of the season.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 13+ @ $2.05

SGM: SHARKS TO SCORE OVER 30.5 POINTS / NICHO HYNES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / WILL KENNEDY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ALEX JOHNSTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.10

Round 22 closes with the only inconsequential match of the weekend, but there’s still plenty of interest as the strife-torn Tigers take on the Eels in a bottom-four clash.

FORM: The once-promising Tigers have lost six in a row, leaking 120 points in the last three games against the Warriors, Bulldogs and Raiders – while scoring just 16 points in return.

The Eels have won only two of their last eight, but they won plenty of admirers in a 24-18 loss to the Panthers last Thursday.

INS AND OUTS: The Tigers circus rolls on with Adam Doueihi recalled at halfback and Javon Andrews dropping out. Heamasi Makasini returns in the centres, pushing Sunia Turuva back to the wing. The Eels welcome Junior Paulo back, while Luca Moretti is out with concussion.

KEY MATCH-UP: Adam Doueihi will be under immense scrutiny after the dramas of the past fortnight, while Mitch Moses is always a lightning rod for attention when he plays against his former club.

HISTORY: The Tigers won an Easter Monday thriller 22-20, meaning the clubs have split the last eight clashes four apiece. Neither has won back-to-back games against the other since the Eels in 2022-23.

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored 20-plus points in eight of the last 11 Tigers-Eels games.

VERDICT: The recent chaos could provide the Tigers with a galvanising effect…assuming everything is now hunky dory between coach and key player. But there appears to be more unsettling factors at play besides Doueihi, Benji and even Luai – and the Tigers’ form has been downright atrocious.

For their part, the lowly Eels have been showing some fight against the NRL’s heavyweights and picked up some heartening wins over mid-table teams despite Moses’ sporadic appearances. They look a bit short but nevertheless deserve their favouritism.

Tip: Back the Eels to Win by 1-12 @ $2.85

SGM: EELS WIN / OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / RONALD VOLKMAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSH ADDO-CARR ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHREAM BULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.63