2026 NRL Round 23 Predictions

These derby rivals lost their Round 22 home fixtures by a combined margin of 106 points – but it’s the still-in-contention Cowboys most under the microscope after last week’s historic loss.  

FORM: The Titans’ followed up their first back-to-back wins of the season – scoring 38 points against both Manly and St George Illawarra – with a crushing 42-6 home loss to the Warriors.  

The Cowboys are in disarray after a record-shattering 82-12 loss to the Roosters, which came on the back of a 3-1 run that included wins over the Panthers, Sea Eagles and Broncos.  

INS AND OUTS: Zane Harrison’s season-ending injury sees Lachlan Ilias return in the Titans’ No.7 jersey. The Cowboys get Griffin Neame back from suspension, but Jeremiah Nanai has been ruled out with Kai O’Donnell coming in.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Keano Kini tried hard in a steamrolled team last week, but fellow fullback livewire Scott Drinkwater’s passive display against the Roosters rightly came under a harsh spotlight.  

HISTORY: The Cowboys have won their last three against the Titans, scoring 110 points in the process. They prevailed 30-16 in Townsville in Round 3.  

KEY STAT: The Titans have won four of their last six against the Cowboys at Cbus Super Stadium, averaging 23 points across those six encounters.  

Scott Drinkwater has scored five tries in his last five games against the Titans. 

VERDICT: After a week of soul-searching, the Cowboys receive an ideal opportunity to reset and get their finals bid back on track. Four of 10 teams to conceded 50-plus points in 2026 have won their next game – and Todd Payten’s chastened side is still in the thick of the Top 8 race.  

The Titans took a sizeable step back last week and Harrison’s injury is a bitter blow for a team that looked to be turning a corner. With both sides taking an optional attitude to defence, the over also holds plenty of appeal in this one.  

Prediction: Back Over 48.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: COWBOYS WIN / BOTH TEAMS SCORE 20+ POINTS / PHILLIP SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT DRINKWATER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HEILUM LUKI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOJO FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $67.78 

A potential grand final preview got a major boost with the Warriors and Panthers both returning to form in emphatic fashion last week.  

FORM: The Warriors put some patchy form – including a disappointing 18-6 loss to the Bulldogs in Round 21 – behind them with a blistering 42-6 win over the Titans last Saturday.  

After winning only two of their previous five and having some trouble putting away Parramatta in Round 21, the Panthers returned to somewhere near their best in a 42-18 win over the Raiders in Mudgee.  

INS AND OUTS: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Leka Halasima retain their backline spots, while Morgan Gannon is a surprise inclusion on the bench with Demitric Vaimauga remaining on the sidelines. Taine Tuaupiki is on the six-man bench.  

Casey McLean is a big out for the Panthers, replaced by Izack Tago, while Dylan Edwards is still out injured and Jack Cogger keeps his spot ahead of Blaize Talagi.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Nathan Cleary was rested from the clubs’ June epic, while he hasn’t lost to the Warriors since 2019. Te Maire Martin bounced back from a quiet fortnight in a two-try performance last week.  

HISTORY: The Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 against the Warriors, including a gripping 20-18 result at CommBank Stadium in Round 13 this year and a pair of wins in Auckland (28-18 in Round 16 and 24-8 in an elimination final) last season.  

KEY STAT: The Warriors have scored more than 18 points just once (in a 22-20 Magic Round win in 2024) in their last 12 matches against the Panthers.  

VERDICT: If these teams’ recent clash in Sydney is anything to go by, this shapes as an absolute barnburner. Edwards and McLean were the Panthers’ chief destroyers in that game and will be missed, but Cleary’s presence this time around negates those losses.  

The Warriors’ have struggled offensively in recent outings at Mount Smart and a cool Friday night in Auckland suggests these teams’ trend of low-scorers should continue.  

The hosts are a better chance than the line might suggest but the Panthers’ clutch qualities are likely to come to the fore with plenty at stake in a tight race for the minor premiership.  

Prediction: Back the Panthers to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.70 

SGM: WARRIORS +4.5 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / THOMAS JENKINS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.50 

A contender for the most anticipated match of the weekend with minor premiership contenders Sydney Roosters and new Top 8 entry Canterbury in outstanding touch.  

FORM: The 14-5 Roosters had only occasionally shown their best across 80 minutes, until obliterating the Cowboys 82-12 last week in Townsville – their sixth win on the trot.  

The Bulldogs have climbed to eighth with six wins from their last seven, outlasting the depleted Storm 36-22 last week on the back of dominant wins over the Tigers and Warriors.  

INS AND OUTS: Lindsay Collins (concussion) returns to the Roosters’ bench, while Billy Smith (illness) is back on the wing for Tommy Talau. Sitili Tupouniua is a huge inclusion on the Bulldogs’ interchange. 

KEY MATCH-UP: Leo Thompson met Kiwis captain James Fisher-Harris head on a couple of weeks ago and will be eyeing up this clash against potential World Cup teammate Naufahu Whyte, who is one of the NRL’s form front-rowers.   

HISTORY: The rivals have split their six matches since the start of 2022 three wins apiece. Last season the Bulldogs won 24-20 at Accor Stadium, before the Roosters turned the tables 32-12 at Allianz Stadium.  

KEY STAT: Daniel Tupou has been kept tryless in seven of his last nine games against the Bulldogs, but he grabbed a hat-trick in their most recent clash.  

VERDICT: A tremendous litmus test looms for both teams, who have both been chalking up plenty of wins but haven’t been tested by in-form teams.  

With Kikau back and Crichton firing at five-eighth, the Bulldogs have emerged as a genuine dark horse. The reshuffle has ignited a stalling attack and their aggression without the ball has returned.  

The Roosters have been in cruise control –it will be a new and intriguing challenge for the big guns if the Bulldogs engage them in a high-quality slugfest. The Bulldogs are the clear value in this one as a $3.10 outsider.  

Prediction: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+9.5) @ $1.94 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / ROBERT TOIA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATT BURTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $38.79 

The traditional grudge match sees the teams at an unusual juncture, with the Storm out of the finals race and the Sea Eagles looking to arrest a slump and stay in the Top 8 hunt.  

FORM: Melbourne has lost its last three to the Roosters (14-6), Rabbitohs (28-26) and Bulldogs (36-22), leaving the perennial heavyweights in 12th with an 8-12 record.  

Manly has tumbled to 10th with four straight losses prior to last week’s bye, culminating in a jarring 48-12 home defeat to Cronulla.  

INS AND OUTS: Cam Munster returns for Melbourne, pairing with Hayden Watson in the halves with Jahrome Hughes still out. Tyran Wishart goes to hooker and Trent Toelau moves to the bench. Jack Howarth is also back at centre.  

Tolu Koula shifts back to the centres for Manly with Blake Wilson called up on the wing. Brandon Wakeham and Corey Waddell also return, while Ben Trbojevic and Kobe Hetherington are out.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Munster will be eager for a big game for his injury-ravaged team, while rookie Joey Walsh will relish the chance to line up opposite the modern great.  

HISTORY: The Sea Eagles have had the wood on the Storm in recent seasons, winning five of the last seven encounters – including a gutsy 18-16 win at AAMI Park last year and a dominant 30-4 result at 4 Pines Park just six weeks ago.  

KEY STAT: These teams’ last five encounters in Melbourne all produced totals of 36 points or less.  

VERDICT: The Storm have shown plenty of heart on their current hat-trick of losses, hamstrung by the absence of their superstars but going down swinging. Meanwhile, there were real danger signs that the air has well and truly gone out of Manly’s Foz-inflated balloon in their last outing.  

The Sea Eagles’ only win on the road since Round 7 was in Magic Round against the Tigers, while the Storm have won five of their last six at AAMI Park and have no business being underdogs here.  

Prediction: Back the Storm to Win @ $2.10 

SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / LEHI HOPOATE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TYRAN WISHART ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $43.30 

The high-flying Dolphins are looking to take advantage of the Broncos’ woes and chalk up a rare derby victory.  

FORM: The fifth-placed Dolphins have accounted for the Cowboys (36-16) and Dragons (28-22) since their harrowing 66-0 loss to the Sharks.   

The Broncos have won only one of their last 11 matches and were overwhelmed 30-6 by the Knights in Round 22.  

INS AND OUTS: Sebastian Su’a replaces Ray Stone on the bench in the Dolphins’ only change.  

Tom Duffy comes in for concussed Brisbane halfback Adam Reynolds. Hooker Billy Walters and second-rower Jaiyden Hunt have been promoted to the starting line-up.  

KEY MATCH-UP: The centre battle between former teammates Herbie Farnworth and Kotoni Staggs is worth the price of admission alone.  

HISTORY: The Broncos remain the kings of Brisbane, winning six of the seven fierce derbies to date. They carved out a 26-12 victory over the Dolphins in Round 4…before both sides’ seasons went on opposite trajectories.  

KEY STAT: Few players have starred in this derby quite like Kotoni Staggs, who has scored six tries in seven games against the Dolphins – including five in his last three.  

VERDICT: The Battle of Brisbane has consistently delivered…is it capable of firing up the spiralling Broncos now their premiership defence is officially over? And can the Dolphins avoid their familiar late-season jitters to chalk up a victory in a rivalry that has proved a tough one results-wise?  

The Broncos’ showing against the Knights was their worst for some time, while the Dolphins had more trouble than they would have liked putting away the Dragons. But anything nearing ‘little brother’s’ 2026 best should be too much for an embattled, injury-torn side with only pride to play for.  

Prediction: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: DOLPHINS WIN / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.38 

Souths line up a vital opportunity to consolidate their Top 8 position against an out-of-contention Parramatta side that will be eager to play the spoiler role again over the closing rounds.   

FORM: The seventh-placed Rabbitohs continue to struggle for consistency, recording nail-biting home wins over the Knights and Storm and suffering disappointing away defeats to the Raiders and Sharks in the past four rounds.  

The Eels have won three of their last six and sit 13th with a 7-12 record, following up a plucky 24-18 loss to the Panthers with a nervy 16-13 victory over the struggling Tigers.  

INS AND OUTS: A huge triple boost for the Rabbitohs with Cam Murray, David Fifita and Tallis Duncan all returning. Luca Morretti is back for the Eels, but Dylan Walker is being rested.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Matt Dufty has apparently cemented the South Sydney No.1 jersey, while young gun Isaiah Iongi was the match-winner for Parramatta last week.  

HISTORY: Souths have won 10 of their last 11 against Parramatta, including a 32-12 result in Round 17 at CommBank Stadium that saw Cody Walker and Tallis Duncan pick up doubles. 

KEY STAT: The Rabbitohs average 31 points across their last 14 games against the Eels, who average 17 points during the same period.  

VERDICT: Souths have rarely looked a Top 8 team over the past couple of months, but the cavalry returning is extremely timely and should see them overwhelm Parramatta for the second time in seven weeks.  

The Eels have shown backbone of late, conceding less than 20 points on average in their last seven games, but they haven’t scored more than 23 points since Round 10.  

Prediction: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: RABBITOHS BY 13+ / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / TALLIS DUNCAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATTHEW DUTFY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSH ADDO-CARR ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.01 

The Raiders’ finals hopes are hanging by a thread ahead of their home clash against the sixth-placed Knights, who are under pressure to keep winning.  

FORM: The 11th-placed Raiders’ encouraging four-match winning streak came to a screeching halt courtesy of a 42-18 loss to the Panthers in Mudgee last Sunday.  

The sixth-placed, injury-hit Knights arrested a three-game slide (in which they lost to the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Roosters by two points or less) with a comprehensive 30-6 win over the Broncos in Round 22.  

INS AND OUTS: Simi Sasagi returns for the Raiders at the expense of Seb Kris in the Raiders’ only change. Tyson Frizell has been restored to the Knights’ starting line-up for his 300th NRL appearance, with Cody Hopwood reverting to a bench that also includes the returning Harrison Graham.  

KEY MATCH-UP: A mouth-watering duel between young running five-eighths Ethan Strange and Fletcher Sharpe awaits.  

HISTORY: The clubs have split their last 10 encounters five wins apiece. The Raiders won home and away in 2025, but the Knights powered to a 32-12 victory in Newcastle in Round 5 this year.   

KEY STAT: Greg Marzhew has scored eight tries in his last seven games against the Raiders.  

VERDICT: Arguably the most difficult game to get a read on in Round 23. The Raiders had picked up genuine momentum – scoring 130 points in three weeks – before running into a red-hot Panthers last week. It’s do-or-die, but the Green Machine have won four of their last five at GIO Stadium.  

The Knights were stoic in losses amid a terrible run of injuries, while they impressed in a fiery affair against the Broncos with Kalyn Ponga back on deck – their first win away from Newcastle since Magic Round.  

With each of the Raiders’ last four games producing totals of 56-plus, the over shapes as a solid option with the Knights heading in as the narrowest of outsiders.  

Prediction: Back Over 46.5 Total Points @ $1.94 

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAEO WEEKES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.36 

The southern Sydney derby sees the Dragons searching for just their third win of the season, while the Sharks are hunting a sixth straight victory.  

FORM: The Dragons have lost three straight since beating the Tigers – and they showed genuine fight in going down to the Warriors (20-12) and Dolphins (28-22) either side of a 20-point loss to the Titans. 

The rampaging Sharks have won 10 of their last 11, including ruthless wins over finals hopefuls the Sea Eagles (48-12) and Rabbitohs (36-12) in the past two rounds.  

INS AND OUTS: With Toby Couchman out due to concussion, Emre Guler will start at prop for the Dragons and potential debutant Jacob Webster joins the bench.  

Mawene Hiroti comes in for Sharks centre KL Iro (concussion) and Hohepa Puru replaces Siosifa Talakai (biceps) on the bench.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Nicho Hynes is arguably the NRL’s form halfback, while Kyle Flanagan has a point to prove every time he takes the field.  

HISTORY: The Sharks have won 11 of their last 12 against the Dragons. After the Saints’ shock win at Kogarah late last season, Cronulla cruised to a 34-12 victory at home in Round 14  

KEY STAT: Nicho Hynes has scored 90 points in nine career appearances against the Dragons.  

VERDICT: The Sharks have been the NRL’s form team over the past month and are still right in the minor premiership frame as they eye off the competition’s softest remaining draw.  

The Dragons spoon-bound Dragons have overachieved on the whole since a tough period in the immediate aftermath of Shane Flanagan’s departure, but their improvement is unlikely to save them from another hefty defeat to their archrivals.   

Prediction: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (-15.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: SHARKS BY 21-30 / OVER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / NICHO HYNES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MAWENE HIROTI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SETU TU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $77.27