Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Prediction, Tips & Odds

The Raiders’ finals hopes are hanging by a thread ahead of their home clash against the sixth-placed Knights, who are under pressure to keep winning.  

FORM: The 11th-placed Raiders’ encouraging four-match winning streak came to a screeching halt courtesy of a 42-18 loss to the Panthers in Mudgee last Sunday.  

The sixth-placed, injury-hit Knights arrested a three-game slide (in which they lost to the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Roosters by two points or less) with a comprehensive 30-6 win over the Broncos in Round 22.  

INS AND OUTS: Simi Sasagi returns for the Raiders at the expense of Seb Kris in the Raiders’ only change. Tyson Frizell has been restored to the Knights’ starting line-up for his 300th NRL appearance, with Cody Hopwood reverting to a bench that also includes the returning Harrison Graham.  

KEY MATCH-UP: A mouth-watering duel between young running five-eighths Ethan Strange and Fletcher Sharpe awaits.  

HISTORY: The clubs have split their last 10 encounters five wins apiece. The Raiders won home and away in 2025, but the Knights powered to a 32-12 victory in Newcastle in Round 5 this year.   

KEY STAT: Greg Marzhew has scored eight tries in his last seven games against the Raiders.  

VERDICT: Arguably the most difficult game to get a read on in Round 23. The Raiders had picked up genuine momentum – scoring 130 points in three weeks – before running into a red-hot Panthers last week. It’s do-or-die, but the Green Machine have won four of their last five at GIO Stadium.  

The Knights were stoic in losses amid a terrible run of injuries, while they impressed in a fiery affair against the Broncos with Kalyn Ponga back on deck – their first win away from Newcastle since Magic Round.  

With each of the Raiders’ last four games producing totals of 56-plus, the over shapes as a solid option with the Knights heading in as the narrowest of outsiders.  

Prediction: Back Over 46.5 Total Points @ $1.94 

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAEO WEEKES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.36