New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Prediction, Tips & Odds

A potential grand final preview got a major boost with the Warriors and Panthers both returning to form in emphatic fashion last week.  

FORM: The Warriors put some patchy form – including a disappointing 18-6 loss to the Bulldogs in Round 21 – behind them with a blistering 42-6 win over the Titans last Saturday.  

After winning only two of their previous five and having some trouble putting away Parramatta in Round 21, the Panthers returned to somewhere near their best in a 42-18 win over the Raiders in Mudgee.  

INS AND OUTS: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Leka Halasima retain their backline spots, while Morgan Gannon is a surprise inclusion on the bench with Demitric Vaimauga remaining on the sidelines. Taine Tuaupiki is on the six-man bench.  

Casey McLean is a big out for the Panthers, replaced by Izack Tago, while Dylan Edwards is still out injured and Jack Cogger keeps his spot ahead of Blaize Talagi.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Nathan Cleary was rested from the clubs’ June epic, while he hasn’t lost to the Warriors since 2019. Te Maire Martin bounced back from a quiet fortnight in a two-try performance last week.  

HISTORY: The Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 against the Warriors, including a gripping 20-18 result at CommBank Stadium in Round 13 this year and a pair of wins in Auckland (28-18 in Round 16 and 24-8 in an elimination final) last season.  

KEY STAT: The Warriors have scored more than 18 points just once (in a 22-20 Magic Round win in 2024) in their last 12 matches against the Panthers.  

VERDICT: If these teams’ recent clash in Sydney is anything to go by, this shapes as an absolute barnburner. Edwards and McLean were the Panthers’ chief destroyers in that game and will be missed, but Cleary’s presence this time around negates those losses.  

The Warriors’ have struggled offensively in recent outings at Mount Smart and a cool Friday night in Auckland suggests these teams’ trend of low-scorers should continue.  

The hosts are a better chance than the line might suggest but the Panthers’ clutch qualities are likely to come to the fore with plenty at stake in a tight race for the minor premiership.  

Prediction: Back the Panthers to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.70 

SGM: WARRIORS +4.5 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / THOMAS JENKINS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.50